2010 Fantasy Football ADP Top 20 (and 20 reasons why you will not win if you follow ADP)
You are not sheep, ninjas.
Just because a player is supposed to be drafted in the top 10 doesn’t mean they should. No player in fantasy football is without flaws.
With our help, and the help of hundreds of other sites out there, it’s your duty as a member of the Ninja Army to weed out the players not fit for their draft slot.
Be the wolves. Harvest the sheep.
With that thought in mind, sharpen your weapons with these 20 reasons why you should not pick the players in the average draft position top 20:
1. Chris Johnson (ADP: 1.11) — If his 2009 workload wasn’t enough to concern you, his holdout should.
2. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 1.98) — There isn’t a cell in my body that would be surprised if he fumbles it at the goal line Week 1 and Toby Gerhart goes on to score double-digit TDs.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: 3.13) — He’s the only player in the top 5 that doesn’t have questions. We’d call him a safe pick if it was 2009. But after 2009′s All-Safe Team debacle, I’ll refrain. He’s my No. 1, but we could look back next season and talk about the lack of support, an ineffective QB and MJD’s workload as his reasons for disappointing.
4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3.99) — Two words: Anquan Boldin. Not only will the Ravens throw more, but they’ll throw less to Ray Rice. Take away 20 catches and 200 yards from his 2009 numbers and Ray Rice is not a top five pick. Don’t forget that Joe Flacco is another year into the system and has two rookie tight ends who will get some work as well.
5. Frank Gore (ADP: 5.10) — All indications point to him being a rockstar again, however, Gore will get hurt again. … Or, maybe the 49ers will use both Anthony Dixon and Glen Coffee in a committee to keep Gore from getting hurt.
6. Michael Turner (ADP: 6.11) — One great season, one disappointing season and Michael Turner is still in the top 6 because he’s “in better shape” this year? Wasn’t Ron Dayne “in the best shape of his life” every offseason?
7. Andre Johnson (ADP: 6.94) — Show of hands, who thinks Matt Schaub is going to stay healthy AND lead the NFL in passing yards again?
8. Steven Jackson (ADP: 8.30) — Yes, it is possible for him to score less touchdowns than he did last season. Quit fooling yourself.
9. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 9.44) — Sacked 50 times in 2009. That’s not healthy.
10. Rashard Mendenhall (ADP: 10.23) — Remember when he was in the doghouse early in 2009? I’d bet that’s what Pittsburgh remembered when they drafted Jonathan Dwyer.
11. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 11.50) — Fitz’s ranking should reflect the number of passes Kurt Warner will be able to complete from his couch.
12. Drew Brees (ADP: 12.34) — There is no way the Saints defense will be as dominant this year, that means a slightly more conservative Saints offense.
13. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 13.16) — Base Williams’ ranking on the number of yards and TDs Jonathan Stewart will steal in 2010.
14. Shonn Greene (ADP: 14.10) — The young back will be pulled for LaDainian Tomlinson — who has a nose for the end zone — at the goal line. Mark Sanchez’s maturation and the arrival of Santonio Holmes means less running and more passing.
15. Randy Moss (ADP: 14.50) — At 33, age will soon become a factor for Moss, who relies on his speed considerably. Also, is that Tom Brady character going to be right in 2010? The ADP top 20 sure doesn’t think so.
16. Ryan Mathews (ADP: 16.42) — Drafters love them some rookies. Hope you love a two-down back who will share carries with Darren Sproles.
17. Reggie Wayne (ADP: 17.66) — Well, jzak already said you should trade high on Wayne.
18. Cedric Benson (ADP: 17.95) — Google “Cedric Benson arrest” and you get 299,000 hits. Google “Cedric Benson” and you only get 638,000. That is not a good news to bad news ratio.
19. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 18.91) — Did you see his 2009 numbers? He had seven less TDs and 400 less yards from 2008 to 2009 on only 11 less catches. Even if you’re not good at math, you can tell those numbers don’t add up.
20. Ryan Grant (ADP: 20.53) — One of our Ninjas, Jay-Mo dealt Ryan Grant in a dynasty league after last season, Grant’s best as a pro. Jay-Mo doesn’t think Grant, 27, has more than two years left in the NFL. Grant also has to contend with Aaron Rodgers chucking the ball all over the field.
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Obviously, every player on this list needs to be drafted regardless of the reasons presented. There are plenty of good reasons why we should draft them. Just remember, before you develop tunnel vision on any one player, that every one of them has the potential to bust.
couldn’t agree more. The ADP isn’t very helpful at all. It’s a creation of hype and standardized scoring. You need to evaluate your leagues scoring prior to even looking at ADP. The best example of that is going from PPR league to non PPR leagues, the differences in the rankings can be drastic.
I like the ADP because it allows me to get certain players in later rounds because people follow the ADP so closely.
Do I use the ADP… not really, do I encourage anyone who i am in a league against to use the ADP… absolutely.
@Consigliere: Thanks for the comment.
I’ve done several rankings based on ADP but always try to point out where the flaws are. This is an extreme example of that.
Your PPR to non-PPR reference is as perfect as your use of ADP late.
just wondering where u got ur rankings from? yahoo? anyways I’m drafting Roddy white in the first round of all my league, he’s not even in ur top 20. hmm.
@Guest: I hope your kidding about picking him in round one. I know I don’t follow the ADP but there are some picks that just dont make sense.
Even if you think White is going to breakout and be the number one fantasy guy (which i dont think will happen) you should be able to get him at pick 14 to 18 for sure.
I would say that there are 4 to 5 WR that will be picked before him. Are you saying that you value him over Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall? I’m just trying to get a feel for your thinking
Sorry left a lot out. I’m in a keeper league, and am keeping three running backs( rice, benson, and Charles). Johnson, Wayne, and miles are being kept by other teams for sure. there’s only 8 guys on ur list of 20 that probably won’t be kept. 12 team league and I have pick 10. it’s a PPR league. also for ur info, I would take White over Marshall. Whites playoff schedule fairs to be much easier than Marshalls. other WR options are Fitzgerald ( probably be drafted before me), C. Johnson, D Jax, Marshall, Boldin, and Jennings.
@Guest: The ADP list is from Mock Draft Central. These are not my rankings and should not be considered the rankings of this site, just 20 reasons why you shouldn’t draft the consensus top 20 players being drafted now.
If it was my personal top 20, it would be very different.
Take, for instance, my top 5:
1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Frank Gore
5. Miles Austin
@Guest: Roddy White didn’t make the ADP top 20, but if you are in a 12-team, 3-keeper league, that means 36 players are off the board before you get to your non-keeper top 20. White is probably in the top 50 overall so he should be in your pre-draft top 20.
If eight of the players on this list are not being kept out of 36 total keepers, where do I sign up?
it’s a work league. we created our own rules on myfantasyleague.com. u have to pay for the site but it leaves u with a lot less headaches. it wouldn’t be hard to create ur own
in our league u can keep four guys. I’m also keeping mike Wallace or Kenny britt. not sure which one yet. u can keep an A, B, C, and D player. A players are the guys drafted rounds 1-5. B are 6-10. C 11-15. and D 16-18 and free agents. there’s 18 players per team, so if I keep four guys I will only draft to round 14. which means I have to find my D player in free agency. It’s first come first serve. it gets pretty brutal but adds a lot more to fantasy.
@Guest: Oh, now it all makes sense.
League sounds fun. Do the players maintain their A-D status forever or do they move up a tier every year they are kept? Are there limits on how long you can keep, say, a surprising player with D status?
keepers only last one year. for instance, I drafted J. Charles in round 9 last year. round 9 gives him a C grade. I can keep him for the upcoming year and then he goes back in the draft pool the following year. their grades have nothing to do with ADP or tiers. just what round their drafted in for that year.
Well the selection of white makes more sense now but I still prefer Calvin Johnson and Marshall to white but that’s mostly preference they are all in the same tier
This makes me not want to draft anyone in the top 20…
@dominic: The problem, dominic, is that you can raise similar questions, plus some, about the rest of the players in football. Like ep suggested in his disclaimer at the bottom of the post: “Obviously, every player on this list needs to be drafted regardless of the reasons presented. There are plenty of good reasons why we should draft them. Just remember, before you develop tunnel vision on any one player, that every one of them has the potential to bust.”
ADP, in my opinion, isn’t a tool that tells you when to draft a player, but a guide to suggest when your leaguemates will be taking players. Then, you can plan your strategy accordingly.
@dominic: That’s the point. Hahaha.
Relax, you’ll get 20 reasons to pick the top 20 soon and then my own personal top 20. No specific dates for you, but by the end of this weekend or early next week they should be live.
So, everyone in the top 20 is basically iffy for various reasons?
@Z-Man: Yep, but rest easy knowing optimistic me will provide “20 reasons why you must follow the ADP top 20 if you want to win” by the end of the week.
Just trying to point out that there are as many potential caveats for players as there are reasons to draft/keep them.
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