The Patriots still have to feel the momentum after scoring 44 points in their last contest, but Baltimore is in a position to stop all of that.
The Ravens have several good matchups against a Patriots defense that is struggling to find it’s way.
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Other fantasy football previews with projections: ATL@PHI | SD@STL | NO@TB | DET@NYG | MIA@GB | SEA@CHI | BAL@NE | CLE@PIT | KC@HOU | NYJ@DEN | OAK@SF | DAL@MIN | IND@WAS | TEN@JAX | (Teams on bye: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, Carolina)
The Patriots should win 23.5-21.3 based on the projections. I’d bet on the Ravens.
Matchups
Baltimore and Joe Flacco face a secondary that has allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game this season and one that has allowed two games of 320 or more yards passing.
If you want to beat New England, you keep Tom Brady off the field. You do that by running the ball. New England has allowed 120 rushing yards per game over it’s last three contests, a statistic I’m sure they’ve heard about this week with a reinvigorated Ray Rice rolling into town.
The Patriots get a Ravens pass defense that hadn’t allowed a team to throw for more 180 yards before it gave up 314 and two TDs to the Broncos last week. Tom Brady has probably taken a few pointers from Kyle Orton film this week.
As everyone knows, he’ll be throwing to a Randy Moss-less receiving corps for the first time since 2006. The team added Deion Branch, which in my opinion makes them worse. We shall see how they use Branch. I’m more excited about Brandon Tate’s potential, personally. I had to temper the projections for him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he steps up in a big way.
Expect TE Aaron Hernandez and WR Wes Welker to get a few of Moss’ looks, too.
Projections
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco, BAL: 22-35, 251 yards, 1.8 TD, 1.5 INT, 5 rush yards
Tom Brady, NE: 18-28, 200 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.3 INT, 5 rush yards
Running backs
Ray Rice, BAL (P): 80 yards, 0.5 TD, 4 catches, 30 receiving yards, 0.2 TD
Benjarvus Green-Ellis, NE: 80 yards, 0.7 TD
Willis McGahee, BAL: 25 yards, 0.3 TD
Danny Woodhead, NE: 30 yards, 0.1 TD
LeRon McClain, BAL: 5 yards, 1 catch 5 receiving yards
Sammy Morris, NE: 5 yards
Wide receivers
Anquan Boldin, BAL: 7-90, 0.9 TD
Wes Welker, NE: 7-60, 0.5 TD
Brandon Tate, NE: 3-50, 0.2 TD
Derrick Mason, BAL: 4-45, 0.2 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, BAL: 3-40, 0.2 TD
Deion Branch, NE: 2-20, 0.1 TD
Julian Edelman, NE: 1-5
Tight ends
Aaron Hernandez, NE: 5-65, 0.5 TD
Todd Heap, BAL: 4-50, 0.3 TD
Rob Gronkowski, NE: 1-10, 0.1 TD
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski, NE: 1.5 FG, 2.7 XP
Billy Cundiff, BAL: 1.1 FG, 2.5 XP
Defenses
Patriots: 1.3 sacks, 1.5 INT, 0.3 fumble recovery
Ravens: 1.5 sacks, 0.3 INT, 0.4 fumble recovery