In 2009 Ray Rice burst onto the scene with a tremendous second season to his career. Then in 2010, LeSean McCoy followed that with a super season in his second season as I had predicted last year. Who will be 2011’s breakout running back?
In McCoy’s rookie season, he posted the following stat line:
155 carries 637 yards 4.1 YPC 4 Rushing TD’s
40 receptions 308 yards 7.7 YPR 0 Receiving TD’s
The breakout running back I am proposing for 2011 is Jahvid Best. He also is entering into his second season.
Jahvid’s rookie year’s stat line was very similar to McCoy’s:
171 carries 555 yards 3.2 YPC 4 rushing TD’s
58 receptions 487 yards 8.4 YPR 2 receiving TD’s
I know, I know everyone is saying but they added Mikel LeShoure and he will kill Best’s value. Wasn’t everyone saying the same thing last year about McCoy when the Eagles added Mike Bell? Bell will eat into his goal line carries and ruin his value. Sounds like a similar situation.
I feel it is very conceivable that Jahvid Best’s year end stat line could look like this:
200 carries 900 yards 4.5 YPC 5 rushing TD’s
65 receptions 553 yards 8.5 YPR 2 receiving TD’s
That would be 187 fantasy points in a standard scoring non ppr league and an amazing 252 fantasy points in a standard scoring PPR league.
You say he will never get 200 carries with LeShoure there. That is only 12.5 carries per game. I can easily see Best meeting that expectation. Plus Best will get almost all of the receiving work out of the backfield.
So there is my 2011 breakout running back. Who is your 2011 breakout player? Please leave in the comments below.