2011 Fantasy Football | Week 1 wide receiver projections (PPR and non-PPR)

After some trial and error I’ve managed to fix the spacing errors. Hopefully everything is smooth from here on out.

I was a little shocked when I hit the button and calculated fantasy points for my receivers. The No. 1 wide receiver was not who I thought he’d be.

Before we get to the projections:

1. Odd spacing seems fixed.

2. This projection method hasn’t been tested for a decade. It is brand new. There will be some bumps on the road, but I’m confident it will produce realistically accurate numbers. Several formulas are used to determine the numbers, including previous performance and my expectations for this year.

3. Projections for touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles could be considered probability numbers as much as “projections.” When I say Mike Vick is going to throw for 1.5 TDs and 0.9 interceptions, it means he’s got a 50-50 shot of throwing a second TD and a 90 percent chance of throwing a pick. For fantasy points purposes, I multiplied the numbers by their respective fantasy points (6 points for rush/reception touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, etc.) to help us split hairs.

2011 Week 1 Wide Receiver rankings with PPR

NAME REC TAR yds TD RuAtt RuYds RuTD FanPts PPRpts
. Brandon Lloyd 4 9 85 0.8 13.3 17.3
. Dwayne Bowe 5 8 78 0.9 13.2 18.2
. Larry Fitzgerald 7 11 90 0.7 13.2 20.2
. Mike Wallace 4 7 88 0.7 13 17
. Andre Johnson 7 10 85 0.7 12.7 19.7
. Vincent Jackson 5 7 84 0.5 11.4 16.4
. Steve Johnson 5 11 76 0.6 11.2 16.2
. Greg Jennings 5 8 80 0.5 11 16
. Roddy White 7 11 85 0.4 10.9 17.9
. Calvin Johnson 4 7 65 0.7 10.7 14.7
. DeSean Jackson 3 6 70 0.5 1 6 0 10.6 13.6
. Hakeem Nicks 5 8 70 0.6 10.6 15.6
. Percy Harvin 5 7 56 0.6 1 7 0.1 10.5 15.5
. Mike Williams 4 8 65 0.6 10.1 14.1
. Mike Thomas 7 10 70 0.4 1 6 0 10 17
. Santana Moss 5 7 70 0.4 9.4 14.4
. Kenny Britt 3 5 55 0.6 9.1 12.1
. Mario Manningham 4 6 61 0.5 9.1 13.1
. Plaxico Burress 4 6 55 0.6 9.1 13.1
. Santonio Holmes 4 6 65 0.4 8.9 12.9
. Jeremy Maclin 4 8 58 0.5 8.8 12.8
. Jerome Simpson 4 6 60 0.4 8.4 12.4
. Brandon Marshall 6 10 70 0.2 8.2 14.2
. Jacoby Ford 3 6 46 0.3 1 10 0.1 8 11
. Davone Bess 5 8 55 0.4 7.9 12.9
. Donald Jones 4 6 61 0.3 7.9 11.9
. Miles Austin 4 7 55 0.4 7.9 11.9
. Mike Williams 6 9 60 0.3 7.8 13.8
. Roy Williams 4 7 60 0.3 7.8 11.8
. Reggie Wayne 6 9 65 0.2 7.7 13.7
. Anquan Boldin 4 7 57 0.3 7.5 11.5
. Antonio Brown 4 7 55 0.3 7.3 11.3
. Johnny Knox 3 6 55 0.3 7.3 10.3
. Lee Evans 4 7 55 0.3 7.3 11.3
. Wes Welker 5 8 55 0.3 7.3 12.3
. Eric Decker 4 7 60 0.2 7.2 11.2
. Nate Washington 3 6 48 0.4 7.2 10.2
. Marques Colston 4 8 53 0.3 7.1 11.1
. A.J. Green 3 6 45 0.4 6.9 9.9
. Andre Roberts 4 6 55 0.2 6.7 10.7
. Steve Smith 4 7 48 0.3 6.6 10.6
. Ben Obomanu 2 3 40 0.4 6.4 8.4
. Lance Moore 3 5 40 0.4 6.4 9.4
. Bernard Berrian 3 4 45 0.3 6.3 9.3
. Jordan Shipley 4 7 43 0.3 6.1 10.1
. Mike Sims-Walker 3 6 40 0.3 5.8 8.8
. Josh Morgan 3 5 45 0.2 5.7 8.7
. Kevin Walter 3 5 39 0.3 5.7 8.7
. Deion Branch 3 5 43 0.2 5.5 8.5
. Chad Ochocinco 3 5 30 0.4 5.4 8.4
. Denarious Moore 3 5 36 0.3 5.4 8.4
. Devin Hester 3 5 36 0.3 5.4 8.4
. Brandon Gibson 3 5 35 0.3 5.3 8.3
. Dez Bryant 3 6 35 0.3 5.3 8.3
. Malcom Floyd 2 4 35 0.3 5.3 7.3
. Michael Crabtree 3 5 35 0.3 5.3 8.3
. Nate Burleson 3 5 35 0.3 5.3 8.3
. Pierre Garcon 4 6 40 0.2 5.2 9.2
. Anthony Armstrong 2 5 40 0.2 5.2 7.2
. Braylon Edwards 3 6 40 0.2 5.2 8.2
. Danny Amendola 5 7 40 0.2 5.2 10.2
. Earl Bennett 3 5 40 0.2 5.2 8.2
. Hines Ward 3 6 40 0.2 5.2 8.2
. James Jones 3 5 40 0.2 5.2 8.2
. Mohamed Massaquoi 3 6 40 0.2 5.2 8.2
. Jabar Gaffney 4 8 45 0.1 5.1 9.1
. Brandon LaFell 3 5 38 0.2 5 8
. Jason Hill 3 5 36 0.2 4.8 7.8
. Sidney Rice 3 5 30 0.3 4.8 7.8
. Austin Collie 3 4 35 0.2 4.7 7.7
. Arrelious Benn 3 4 35 0.2 4.7 7.7
. Brian Hartline 3 5 41 0.1 4.7 7.7
. Derrick Mason 3 6 35 0.2 4.7 7.7
. Eddie Royal 3 6 35 0.2 4.7 7.7
. Victor Cruz 3 5 35 0.2 4.7 7.7
. Kevin Ogletree 2 4 28 0.3 4.6 6.6
. Robert Meachem 2 4 33 0.2 4.5 6.5
. Steve Breaston 3 5 33 0.2 4.5 7.5
. Jacoby Jones 2 3 30 0.2 4.2 6.2
. Brian Robiskie 3 5 35 0.1 4.1 7.1
. Early Doucet 2 4 35 0.1 4.1 6.1
. Jason Avant 3 5 35 0.1 4.1 7.1
. Julio Jones 3 5 35 0.1 4.1 7.1
. Jordy Nelson 3 5 34 0.1 4 7
. Blair White 2 3 20 0.3 3.8 5.8
. Dezmon Briscoe 3 4 25 0.2 3.7 6.7
. Darrius Heyward-Bey 2 5 30 0.1 3.6 5.6
. Greg Little 2 3 30 0.1 3.6 5.6
. David Nelson 2 4 23 0.2 3.5 5.5
. Donald Driver 2 4 28 0.1 3.4 5.4
. Torrey Smith 2 4 27 0.1 3.3 5.3
. Emmanuel Sanders 2 4 26 0.1 3.2 5.2
. Taylor Price 2 3 26 0.1 3.2 5.2
. Patrick Crayton 2 3 25 0.1 3.1 5.1
. Roscoe Parrish 2 4 25 0.1 3.1 5.1
. Vincent Brown 2 4 25 0.1 3.1 5.1
. Josh Cribbs 2 4 18 0.1 1 5 0 2.9 4.9
. Demaryius Thomas 2 3 16 0.2 2.8 4.8
. Domenik Hixon 2 3 20 0.1 2.6 4.6
. Harry Douglas 2 4 20 0.1 2.6 4.6
. Devery Henderson 2 4 24 0 2.4 4.4
. Justin Gage 1 3 18 0.1 2.4 3.4
. Danario Alexander 2 4 17 0.1 2.3 4.3
. Micheal Spurlock 1 2 16 0.1 2.2 3.2
. Greg Camarillo 1 2 15 0.1 2.1 3.1
. Golden Tate 2 4 20 0 2 4
. Jerheme Urban 2 4 14 0.1 2 4
. Jarrett Dillard 1 3 12 0.1 1.8 2.8
. Sammie Stroughter 2 3 18 0 1.8 3.8
. Ted Ginn 1 2 12 0.1 1.8 2.8
. Jesse Holley 2 3 16 0 1.6 3.6
. Leonard Handerson 1 2 10 0.1 1.6 2.6
. Andre Caldwell 1 2 15 0 1.5 2.5
. Michael Jenkins 1 2 13 0 1.3 2.3
. Riley Cooper 1 1 7 0.1 1.3 2.3
. Devin Aromashodu 1 2 12 0 1.2 2.2
. Louis Murphy 1 1 12 0 1.2 2.2
. Terrance Copper 1 2 11 0 1.1 2.1
. Clyde Gates 1 1 10 0 1 2
. Legadu Naanee 1 3 10 0 1 2
. Armanti Edwards 1 3 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Dorin Dickerson 1 1 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Doug Baldwin 1 2 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Jerrel Jernigan 1 1 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Richard Goodman 1 1 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Stephen Williams 1 3 8 0 0.8 1.8
. Austin Pettis 1 2 5 0 0.5 1.5
. Greg Salas 1 2 5 0 0.5 1.5
. Tandon Doss 1 1 5 0 0.5 1.5
. Titus Young 1 2 5 0 0.5 1.5

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2 Responses to “2011 Fantasy Football | Week 1 wide receiver projections (PPR and non-PPR)”


  1. Sam Davis

    Vincent Jackson will be #1 this week. Called.

  2. ep

    I hope so, Sam Davis. I have V-Jax in way too many leagues this year.
    I have a feeling he’ll finish as the top fantasy WR this year.