Usually your flex play is going to be a player outside the top-30, but this week we have a lot of boom-bust names inside the top-30 this week.
Steven Jackson, Lamar Miller, Joique Bell, Fred Jackson, Andre Johnson, Latavius Murray, Jeremy Hill, Andre Williams, Daniel Herron and Pierre Thomas all might be chosen if we were playing that which-one-doesn’t-belong game.
I’ve gone over a bunch of them in previous posts today. I’m going to cover a couple I haven’t addressed so far.
Bell has a great matchup against the Bears. The Lions defense is a decent play against Jimmy Claussen. If Chicago gets shut down, Bell just grinds out the clock. If the game stays interesting, Bell catches a few passes and probably still gets into the end zone.
It was a bad matchup on paper last week when Hill went to Cleveland. He either exposed them as a horrible run defense — Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, agrees with that statement — or Hill is a darn good back. It’s probably a little of both. Hill wouldn’t have ousted Giovani Bernard from the starting spot if he was talentless. That only happens in Oakland. To Marcel Reese. This week Hill gets the Broncos, who are good at stopping running backs in the season-long realm, but didn’t meet more recent criteria so I didn’t adjust Hill’s numbers up or down. That’s good news for him this week.
I don’t like Williams at all this week. The projections machine spit out this ranking because he’ll get volume with Rashad Jennings out. I doubt he’ll be effective enough to warrant 27th-best flex play status, but that’s what the projections say so it stays.
Herron is an interesting matchup. the Cowboys-Colts game will likely be a high-scoring affair. Herron is an effective back and has moved into the Ahmad Bradshaw role. The Cowboys allow 29.6 fantasy points per game to running backs in the last five weeks.
With Drew Brees expected to have a monster game, it’s no stretch to think Thomas, one of his top pass-catchers, should also get plenty of run — even in non-PPR.