In Week 17 we have a lot of potential game scripts. Let’s talk about some of them.
Just to be clear, I know you might have two-week championship weeks so your season-long team may still be going. But I’m going to focus mostly on daily fantasy football this week, the final week of the NFL season.
We’ll post boom or bust projections as long as the daily fantasy sites are offering football contests.
Then I’ll probably talk about dabbling in fantasy NBA — I have a better win percentage in NBA than NFL, by the way.
Let’s get to Week 17 individual defensive player talk.
Any team with playoff implications this week could be in for a huge game as they battle to win a division title or improve their playoff ranking.
However, it’s also worth noting that many playoff teams will rest their starters after a couple series or if the game gets out of hand. That means there are far more outcomes where the players rest than there are where they play the full game. This will greatly increase variance in daily fantasy leagues.
That means the gap between the pros and us amateurs closes in large-field tournaments. It also means playing in safe cash games like head-to-head games and 50/50s, where half or almost half of the field double their money or almost double their money.
Fade all Patriots
I don’t think you need to fade Patriots in your IDP league. I’m not sure how many of them will rest.
More IDP talk
Remember, our projections machine spits these things out. I don’t spend time checking injuries and playing time. If you’re considering starting a player but there’s a new alert saying he’s been benched or he’s hurt, don’t start him. I don’t know more than the big websites out there. However, if you find yourself in one of those situations, you should consider running the new player out there.
On defense, many starters aren’t much better than their backups. A system that puts a middle linebacker in the spotlight will continue to give the middle linebacker opportunities no matter who’s in the lineup.