2016 Draft Kit

Boom or bust PPR running back projections for NFL Playoffs: Conference championships

I try to sprinkle in little bits and bobs in these intros.

Keen readers of the kicker projections article noticed that my lone FanDuel lineup is dirty with Patriots players, including a running back — a move I have avoided for weeks since The Jonas Gray Incident.

Your bit/bob in this post? Me bragging up our stuff here. If you followed my advice last week — mixing in some boom or bust plays along with following the lineup diversity strategy I suggested — you probably did pretty well. I tripled my investment and had my best week of the season.

I can’t guarantee the accuracy of my projections, especially not in such a high-variance situation like this week, but I am pretty proud of my small win last week. It was helped in large part because I had lineups with Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette and Andrew Quarless in them. Oddball players that allow you to build freakishly good lineups elsewhere are the cornerstone of tournament victories.

I put a lot of time and effort into these projections and the matchups.

This week, when I pivot off the Marshawn LynchDaniel Herron pairing, here’s where I’m going to go and why I’m going to do it.

The Colts are the least effective at stopping opposing pass-catching backs and the Patriots have a pass-catching back du jour on their roster. Some people think Shane Vereen could be a feature back. On a site like Draft Kings, where you get a full point per reception, I’ll find a place for him in a lineup or two.

Eddie Lacy has a horrible matchup, the worst in the playoffs. But that makes him an interesting tournament play because a lot of other people will be afraid to start him. You’ll have to convince yourself to start a running back against a defense that allows just 15.9 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing defenses but if Lacy wears them down and Rodgers gets a long touchdown or two you end up with the kind of edge you need to win big money.

There’s also a game script in that contest where the Packers fall apart, Aaron Rodgers‘ calf is worse than believed and the Seahawks roll to an easy win. In that case, Robert Turbin might get more run than usual. I’ll have him in 1% of my lineups if any, but if he gets 60 yards and a garbage-time touchdown that frees up a lot of room to potentially get Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton and Julian Edelman in your lineup.

Projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | DEF | IDP

PPR projections: RB | WR | TE | FLEX

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