I am running super late this week on all fronts. Holiday gatherings and some technical issues at work left me with little time.
Sorry for the delay. I’ll stop rambling.
In Week 17 we have a lot of potential game scripts. Let’s talk about some of them.
Just to be clear, I know you might have two-week championship weeks so your season-long team may still be going. But I’m going to focus mostly on daily fantasy football this week, the final week of the NFL season.
We’ll post boom or bust projections as long as the daily fantasy sites are offering football contests.
Then I’ll probably talk about dabbling in fantasy NBA — I have a better win percentage in NBA than NFL, by the way.
Let’s get to Week 17 PPR running back projections.
Any team with playoff implications this week could be in for a huge game as they battle to win a division title or improve their playoff ranking.
However, it’s also worth noting that many playoff teams will rest their starters after a couple series or if the game gets out of hand. That means there are far more outcomes where the players rest than there are where they play the full game. This will greatly increase variance in daily fantasy leagues.
That means the gap between the pros and us amateurs closes in large-field tournaments. It also means safe cash games, like head-to-head games and 50/50s, where half or almost half of the field double their money or almost double their money, won’t be as safe as usual.
Fade all Patriots
I’m not going to consider any Patriots for my teams this week. Brady could play two series and get pulled. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are both questionable. LeGarrette Blount might not play. Jonas Gray has been ruled out. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put a security guard in at running back and he rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs.
New England has locked down the top seed in the AFC. They don’t have any reason to put their players at risk.
More PPR running back talk
Matt Asiata is getting a lot of love from daily fantasy experts this week, and for good reason. He is inexpensive and has been putting up solid numbers for a few weeks. He gets a good matchup against a reeling Bears team this week.
I talked about why Devonta Freeman and Justin Forsett are ranked so high in the running back projections.
Here are a couple other potentially head-scratching projections:
DeMarco Murray is ranked so low because Dallas, like the Patriots and Colts, doesn’t have a lot to play for.
Doug Martin is ranked so high because the Saints have given up 33.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. He may never be 2012 Doug Martin, but he could show flashes of it this week.