I am running super late this week on all fronts. Holiday gatherings and some technical issues at work left me with little time.
Sorry for the delay. I’ll stop rambling.
In Week 17 we have a lot of potential game scripts. Let’s talk about some of them.
Just to be clear, I know you might have two-week championship weeks so your season-long team may still be going. But I’m going to focus mostly on daily fantasy football this week, the final week of the NFL season.
We’ll post boom or bust projections as long as the daily fantasy sites are offering football contests.
Then I’ll probably talk about dabbling in fantasy NBA — I have a better win percentage in NBA than NFL, by the way.
Let’s get to Week 17 PPR tight end projections.
Any team with playoff implications this week could be in for a huge game as they battle to win a division title or improve their playoff ranking.
However, it’s also worth noting that many playoff teams will rest their starters after a couple series or if the game gets out of hand. That means there are far more outcomes where the players rest than there are where they play the full game. This will greatly increase variance in daily fantasy leagues.
That means the gap between the pros and us amateurs closes in large-field tournaments. It also means safe cash games, like head-to-head games and 50/50s, where half or almost half of the field double their money or almost double their money, won’t be as safe as usual.
Fade all Patriots
I’m not going to consider any Patriots for my teams this week. Brady could play two series and get pulled. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are both questionable. LeGarrette Blount might not play. Jonas Gray has been ruled out. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put a security guard in at running back and he rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs.
New England has locked down the top seed in the AFC. They don’t have any reason to put their players at risk.
More PPR tight end talk
In the standard tight end projections I said Greg Olsen and Coby Fleener would probably fill a lot of my lineups this week.
Here are a few others to consider:
This is a killer matchup for Jason Witten against the Redskins who have given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (18.9 points) in the last five weeks. They also have the third-worst Defense-adjusted Value Over Averages against tight ends this season, according to Football Outsiders. The big concern, of course, is that Dallas is likely to rest starters this week with little to gain.
I’m hesitant to put Scott Chandler on this list because he could drop a goose egg on you. However, he faces the unmotivated Patriots who allow 66.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends and have the fourth-worst DVOA against them this season. Not everyone will have Chandler in their lineup either meaning you can gain some ground on the rest of the field if he gets in the end zone.