We are in the second round of the playoffs.
We’ve sifted most of the dirt from the gems so when I’m making matchup-based adjustments I’m dialing down more players than I’m dialing up.
The defenses are just better now.
However, one quarterback who got dialed up this week is one that doesn’t need us to push the needle: Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys rank 11th against quarterbacks in season-long Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and have allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game to them over the last five weeks, 7th-most in the NFL.
Yes, Rodgers’ torn calf muscle is a huge concern. He could be a surprise no go at game time. Unless he seriously aggravates the injury during the game — remember, every player has a chance of getting hurt — I think he performs as we expect him to.
And in this case, he’s got the best matchup of the week.
He didn’t get a bump because there are some conflicting numbers, but Tom Brady‘s wide receivers have the best matchups of the week against Baltimore. If the Ravens can’t pressure Brady this one could get out of hand.
Joe Flacco and Cam Newton are at the bottom of the list with horrible looking projections compared to the rest of the field. But on a short slate like this play your hunches.
If you think Flacco lives up to the he’s-better-in-the-postseason hype against the Patriots, then roster him. If you think Newton rides the momentum of last week’s playoff win to victory over the Super Bowl champions, do it.
There are potential game scripts for every scenario once you get to the playoffs. Some are more likely than others, but variance will be high. Embrace it.