2016 Draft Kit

Boom or bust quarterback projections for Week 6

I promised to have these done Friday. It’s now 3:03 a.m. Saturday. I have to be awake to help my stepsister move in a less than three hours.

Some of you don’t care. You just want the projections. Some of you probably don’t care for self-deprecation either. There might also be more Derek Carr in the next few paragraphs than you care about.

Go ahead, scroll down. I don’t mind.

The rest of you, jump down the rabbit hole with me.

I hate making mistakes. I get seriously frustrated with myself. So when the projections pulled up lame on Thursday… Wait, let’s go back a few more days.

I spent Monday and Tuesday writing stuff about the Draft Kings Millionaire Maker. I love those numbers and notes deals. I also spent time “refining” the projections template. I added some terrific features that led me down the path to today. Monday was an awesome day. I thought everything was in place for better projections and more awesome this week.

Fast forward to Thursday. It was an abomination. After spending too many hours projecting instead of sleeping, I saw Derek Carr as a top-5 quarterback with 286 yards passing. And while I like a good boom-or-bust list, and will probably start Carr in a .25-cent tournament game, I couldn’t submit that as an actual projection against San Diego.

My initial reaction at the time was laughter. Unusual for me, but it was the only reaction possible because of how ridiculous it seemed.

I thought I calculated the Vegas numbers wrong. I recalculated five games. … Before I realized my change had made it worse.

It turns out the first number I reached was correct, but where I implemented it in the process was causing wild fluctuations. Oakland is supposed to have a better-than-average week this week against San Diego. It’s not difficult when the raw offense vs. defense averages come in at 12 points and change. Vegas thinks they’ll score 18, among the worst totals this week, but it’s still enough to give their stats a bump. That’s why Carr’s numbers were through the roof. After finally getting that squared up, I went through every game again then went through individual receiver types and made some manual adjustments based on matchups.

While calculating fantasy points for the positions I arrived at the defense and special teams where I realized only the Thursday night teams had any sacks. I checked the team pages and sure enough four of the six sack formulas were just plain gone. On each page.

There was less haha this time and a lot more other four-letter words.

I went in and fixed the templates, but only modified the team defense totals for this week’s games. My IDP projections will appear in the broken form they are.

So this week has been a hot mess. I’m sure I’ll be totally sane for moving day tomorrow and I’ll post a world-beating lineup in the Millionaire Maker this week.

So, for all of that effort, you get projections with Charlie Whitehurst in the top-5, Kirk Cousins 10th and Logan Thomas 11th.

Week 6 quarterback projections for 2014 fantasy football:

Week 6 projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | DEF | IDP

Week 6 PPR projections: RB | WR | TE | FLEX

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