2016 Draft Kit

Boom or bust running back projections for Week 17

In Week 17 we have a lot of potential game scripts. Let’s talk about some of them.

Just to be clear, I know you might have two-week championship weeks so your season-long team may still be going. But I’m going to focus mostly on daily fantasy football this week, the final week of the NFL season.

We’ll post boom or bust projections as long as the daily fantasy sites are offering football contests.

Then I’ll probably talk about dabbling in fantasy NBA — I have a better win percentage in NBA than NFL, by the way.

Let’s get to Week 17 running back talk.

General notes

Any team with playoff implications this week could be in for a huge game as they battle to win a division title or improve their playoff ranking.

However, it’s also worth noting that many playoff teams will rest their starters after a couple series or if the game gets out of hand. That means there are far more outcomes where the players rest than there are where they play the full game. This will greatly increase variance in daily fantasy leagues.

That means the gap between the pros and us amateurs closes in large-field tournaments. It also means playing in safe cash games like head-to-head games and 50/50s, where half or almost half of the field double their money or almost double their money.

Fade all Patriots

I’m not going to consider any Patriots for my teams this week. Brady could play two series and get pulled. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are both questionable. LeGarrette Blount might not play. Jonas Gray has been ruled out. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put a security guard in at running back and he rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs.

More running back talk

Devonta Freeman is in the top-10. I’m probably way off the norm with this one. I gave almost all of Steven Jackson’s statistics to Freeman. The Falcons really like Jacquizz Rodgers, but I feel like this is the kind of game that gives the Falcons a look at their potential running back. If Freeman starts hot he’s going to dominate carries.

Monitor the injury report. Pierre Thomas is on IR so Travaris Cadet is going to get some extra snaps as the pass-catching part of the 3-headed Saints backfield. Justin Forsett is questionable, but he’s got a terrific matchup this week. Bernard Pierce and Fitzgerald Trouffaint are his backups.

Frank Gore is Carlos Hyde-less again this week, but it’s a tough matchup against the Cardinals.

Week 17 projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | D/ST | IDP

Week 17 PPR projections: RB | WR | TE | FLEX

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