Just like with our kicker projections, most of the teams left this deep into the postseason don’t give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Our most notable matchup here is the Broncos defense against the Colts.
Indianapolis has allowed 7.8 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses in it’s last five games. That’s the third-highest total in the NFL. They rank 10th in season long defense-adjusted fantasy points allowed to D/STs.
I’d also like to point out that the Broncos’ defensive TD projection is also the highest this week.
To get that projection, we tally up touchdowns, extra points and field goals then subtract that number from Las Vegas’ projected team score. This gives us some unaccounted for points. We divide that number by six and that’s how we get our defensive TD prediction.
I added it to our projection machine during that stretch where the Eagles were scoring non-offensive touchdowns in bunches. Their projected defensive TD percentage was consistently among the top teams all season. I’m not saying it’s perfect or that it works every time, but it’s another tool that can help us decide who to start.