Sorry guys, but you’re probably not going to be able to save any money at tight end this week in daily fantasy.
Rob Gronkowski is in the field and I don’t think anyone is going to be able to match his production.
Julius Thomas and Owen Daniels have good matchups.
But Thomas isn’t 100% and that Broncos offense has turned into a second defense, grinding clock with the running game instead of throwing for 400 yards per game. He’s still a threat for three TDs, but so is Gronk.
Daniels has a great matchup against the Patriots, whose biggest defensive weakness this season is against the tight end. The Patriots are fourth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average against tight ends and have allowed 65.6 yards per game to tight ends — tied for the most among teams left in the playoffs. They also allowed 13.0 PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends in their last five games, 10th-most in the NFL.
Just like we discussed in the running back projections, Denver has some flip-flopping tendencies at tight end. They rank 20th over the course of the season in DVOA against tight ends, but in defense-adjusted fantasy points allowed, they rank 8th. They’ve also allowed 60.8 yards per game to tight ends. In the last five games, they’ve given up 15.3 fantasy points, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Considering they’ll be facing Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, I’m guessing we should consider those numbers favorable to the tight ends to be more meaningful.
I didn’t adjust their statistics because I only make the changes when the numbers align, but in this case we should consider the Colts tight ends as options in big field tournaments if you want to be contrarian against all of the Gronkowski owners.