2016 Draft Kit

Boom or bust tight end projections for NFL Playoffs Week 1

When the dust settles on Monday we’re probably going to remember tight ends from this week as the one with Greg Olsen and the other guys.

That’s what it feels like to me looking at the Draft Kings list and that’s what our projections machine spit out this week too.

Not only is Olsen the most targeted tight end of the bunch, he has a great matchup against the Cardinals who give up 66.2 yards per game to tight ends. Over the last five weeks they allowed 14.7 fantasy points per game to them, the sixth-highest total in the NFL.

There are other tight ends that could have good games this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Olsen is owned in 50% of lineups, especially in the bigger tournaments.

Heath Miller has 36 targets and 23 catches in the Steelers last five games. Baltimore is a middle-of-the-road matchup for tight ends. He’ll be my second option in daily fantasy lineups.

He’s a little banged up, but Jermaine Gresham is expected to play and gets the Colts’ defense, ranked 27th in the NFL against tight ends, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

Detroit is one of the toughest defenses in the league against tight ends (8th, DVOA), but like Miller, Jason Witten has been a target machine recently. He had 19 catches on 22 targets for 208 yards and a touchdown int he final three weeks of the season.

Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen have a similar poor matchup against the Bengals who are the toughest against tight ends among all playoff teams, ranking fourth in DVOA. It also doesn’t help that Allen is touchdown dependent and his return from injury will limit Fleener’s upside. But if you started either of them I wouldn’t tell you it’s a bad idea. I just don’t know which one to start.

Probably Allen, I guess. He may only catch two passes, but both of them could be TDs.

UPDATE – JAN. 3

I have a few more notes from the Steelers-Ravens game that really need to be addressed.

1. Haloti Ngata is expected back for the Ravens which means their run-stuffing defense got stuffier.

2. Troy Polamalu is expected back for the Steelers, whose defense can use all the help it can get.

3. Weather is expected to be bad — 100% chance of precipitation with high winds. This is typically only a bad thing for kickers and for some passing games. Ben Roethlisberger is a mudder. Joe Flacco doesn’t like the Super Bowl being played in cold weather, but he did throw 13 TDs and only 5 interceptions with two rushing touchdowns in November and December.

Playoffs Week 1 projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | DEF | IDP

PPR projections: RB | WR | TE | FLEX





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