I picked up an interesting nugget about picking wide receivers for daily fantasy this week from Chris Raybon at 4-for-4. They offer one of the elite subscription services in fantasy football. I subscribe to at least one pay site per year and picked 4-for-4 this season.
The nugget: Lower-upper-tier receivers are primed for a breakout and are slightly underpriced. Upper-upper-tier receivers are more than likely coming off a big breakout and are overpriced.
So, pay up for wide receivers in tournament. Lower-priced mid-tier guys — think Keenan Allen before his breakout game — are also primed for a breakout.
It just make sense and I’ll be following that logic when picking my teams this week. Odell Beckham Jr.’s price has jumped to $8,500, but he gets Jacksonville and is still $900 cheaper than the No. 1 receiver, Demaryius Thomas, who is coming off an inflationary 3-TD performance.
I feel like Kendall Wright is a lower-middle tier guy primed fro a breakout. We have him projected for 9.3 targets against a Houston defense that allows the most yards per game (94.2) to opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season. No surprisingly, the Texans also allowed the most PPR fantasy points per game (46.9) to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
UPDATE: Some smart people in the industry (@JeneBramel on Twitter) expect Larry Fitzgerald, who we have ranked 11th in PPR this week, and Roddy White, 33rd in PPR, to be limited or to miss their respective games. I haven’t adjusted the projections, but you should be aware. If Fitz is a no-go, Michael Floyd and John Brown could pay huge dividends. White was already a mediocre play against a Cardinals defense which has allowed the third-least PPR fantasy points (27.0) per game to wide receivers in the last five weeks.