In Week 17 we have a lot of potential game scripts. Let’s talk about some of them.
Just to be clear, I know you might have two-week championship weeks so your season-long team may still be going. But I’m going to focus mostly on daily fantasy football this week, the final week of the NFL season.
We’ll post boom or bust projections as long as the daily fantasy sites are offering football contests.
Then I’ll probably talk about dabbling in fantasy NBA — I have a better win percentage in NBA than NFL, by the way.
Let’s get to Week 17 wide receiver talk.
Any team with playoff implications this week could be in for a huge game as they battle to win a division title or improve their playoff ranking.
However, it’s also worth noting that many playoff teams will rest their starters after a couple series or if the game gets out of hand. That means there are far more outcomes where the players rest than there are where they play the full game. This will greatly increase variance in daily fantasy leagues.
That means the gap between the pros and us amateurs closes in large-field tournaments. It also means playing in safe cash games like head-to-head games and 50/50s, where half or almost half of the field double their money or almost double their money.
Fade all Patriots
I’m not going to consider any Patriots for my teams this week. Brady could play two series and get pulled. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are both questionable. LeGarrette Blount might not play. Jonas Gray has been ruled out. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put a security guard in at running back and he rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs.
More wide receiver concerns
Odell Beckham Jr.’s price has skyrocketed. He’s the priciest receiver at both FanDuel and Draft Kings this week. Typically, you never want to pay for the No. 1 wide receiver. You’re typically paying for an unrepeatable 3-TD game. But Beckham has been so consistently great and he has such a great matchup against the Eagles it’s hard for me to recommend you not play him.
I’m looking forward to the Packers-Lions game. I think the Packers get after Matthew Stafford and make his day difficult. The Lions are a tough matchup for both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
Remember to watch the injury report. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Bowe, Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree all have injury concerns. Those are some huge and relatively big names.