“Interesting list,” you might say.
You might also say, “but where’s Juli-OH! What is this garbage?”
Jones is questionable with an ankle injury and since allowing Calvin Johnson to go for 164 and two TDs in Week 1, the Giants have stuffed opposing wide receivers.
I don’t think they’ll stuff Julio. In fact, I have him going for 82.3 yards and more than a 50/50 chance of scoring a TD. But it feels like we have to lower his ceiling because of the factors above.
Brohamma made some good points in the comments of the PPR wide receiver projections. I’m going to address those here. I’ve made some minor adjustments to the projections for the players he brought up.
First, here are the raw projected stats calculated by my model for the players he brought up:
Last season Tampa Bay was a poor matchup for WR2s and a neutral matchup for WR1s. They were, however, one of the absolute best matchups for other WRs. In 2014, they are getting smoked by No. 1 wide receivers and giving up almost twice as many yards to No. 3/4 WRs than they are to No. 2 wide receivers.
I believe the WR1 numbers are skewed a bit by two-TD games by Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. However, they did give up 94 yards and a touchdown to Kelvin Benjamin in Week 1. Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.
I’m going to boost Colston’s numbers, but I could see Stills topping Cooks.
Now let’s get into Decker and Kerley. Last season San Diego was the second worst defense against opposing No. 1 WRs and the worst defense against opposing No. 2 WRs, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
It’s not unheard of for a defense to see sweeping changes in pass defense, but to have a swing as great as this makes me a little uneasy. They did give up more than 100 yards to Michael Floyd in Week 1, then Percy Harvin only got one target against them in Week 2 then Sammy Watkin and Robert Woods got E.J. Manueled in Week 3. They slowed down the Jacksonville wide receivers in Week 4 which is the one thing that make me question my disbelief. Allen Hurns has been able to get behind the defense almost every game. And Bortles completed 78.4 percent of his passes in the contest. I would have expected more out of those WRs.
So, maybe San Diego’s secondary is as improved as they claimed in the preseason. Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll really be tested until Week 8 against Denver. They face a motley crew of Geno Smith, Derek Carr and Alex Smith until then. Unless Mike Vick enters this week’s game before halftime. Then I might regret lowering the projections on Decker and Kerley.
Brohamma also provided a tip on New England wide receiver Brian Tyms, who returns from a 4-game PED suspension. Tyms, at 6-3, 204 pounds, could provide a spark where Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have provided nothing but disappointment. I wouldn’t start him this week even if we know he is active because New England is a mess. But we should add him to our watch lists or rosters depending on bench depth.
Week 5 wide receiver projections for 2014 fantasy football: