If only one could predict the future by simply crunching some numbers. Fantasy football, a true numbers game, would be so much easier that way.

Take for example many of the major fantasy football Web sites. They now offer weekly projections of what they predict players will do against a given matchup on any given Sunday.

Mathematicians have actually developed formulas to project which players or defensive teams are the most likely to succeed. However, fantasy football, many have learned, is not an exact science in the least.

To read the rest of this story, click here.

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It isn’t too often that I get the feeling … the one where I feel I need to put in strong buy attempts for a certain player. However, one player that fell off many people’s radar screens lately, and who should show vast improvement fantasy-wise the remainder of the season is Thomas Jones.

Jones, as you may remember, started the season on fire. Against Miami, he finished with 101 yards rushing with a TD, along with three receptions to boot. Many people expected that type of outcome more often from Jones this year after the Jets made significant upgrades on their offensive line and added Brett Favre under center — who was expected to air out the offense and open big rushing lanes for Jones.

However, Jones hit the proverbial wall in week two against the New England Patriots. He finished with 70 yards on the ground and two receptions for five yards and no TDs. Those who chalked the dip in production to the matchup with New England’s defense were disappointed again in week three, as Jones stumbled along for just 37 yards rushing and two receptions against San Diego.

In week 4, Thomas Jones again struggled to live up to expectations. Finishing with a pedestrian 46 yards rushing and two receptions for 23 yards receiving against the Arizona Cardinals, Jones found his way to many fantasy owners benches (the week 5 bye had a part in that, but Jones’ production has soured many owners for the rest of the season).

However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, as I said before, I have been aggressively trying to buy Jones in many of my leagues. The reasoning for my madness:

1. Favre proved in week 4 that he is still a huge threat and that defenses must respect the passing game. 

2. Jones is officially past his bye week — meaning you can start him on your roster and not have to worry about plugging in a replacement down the road.

3. He’s completely healthy, which is more than can be said about many running backs in the league today. At this point, knock on wood, there’s no weekly drama of whether or not he’ll play.

4. Thomas Jones is still the bonafide ball carrier on the offense. There is no “RBBC” with the Jets. Through the first four weeks, Jones has 67 of the team’s 91 overall carries (including Brett Favre scrambles), or 73.6% of the team’s carries. It’s just a matter of time until that translates into better stats.

5. The big advantage, in my mind, factoring in all the rest I listed here is that Jones’ schedule is incredibly favorable moving forward. The Jets play, in order, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City, Buffalo, St. Louis, New England, Tennessee, Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle and Miami. Notice the two fantasy playoff teams.

The bottom line is that Jones is a huge buy-low guy in my book. Happy hunting.

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They say you can learn a lot about someone when that person’s back is to the wall — when they have one last glimmer of a chance to succeed.

For me, this is Ryan Grant’s do or die fantasy week. Grant, who was drafted by some in the late first round, and by most in the early-to-mid second round of fantasy drafts, has been a huge disappointment this season. You could make a case that he is one of the biggest busts of the season to date.

Many feel that Grant’s biggest issue was tied to his hamstring troubles. Others blame the offensive line and yet others to the Packers’ game plan of airing it out as much as possible with Aaron Rodgers.

Whatever your excuse may be for Grant, it is time that he show at least somewhat of a return on your investment, and what better time to do it than in week 5. The stage is set. The Packers face one of the league’s softest run defenses in Atlanta. There is serious doubt that Aaron Rodgers will play due to shoulder issues, meaning that rookie QBs Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm will likely be under center, and the Packers will need to run early and often to succeed.

I was really close to benching Grant indefinitely in my money league to upstart LeRon McClain (see previous post by ep and a waiver wire post I’ll put up Friday), but have decided that there are too many variables in play that could lead to a Ryan Grant re-incarnation.

If Grant struggles again, he will find himself on most everyone’s fantasy bench for the forseeable future.

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Here is my weekly fantasy column for The Daily Item concerning some players who are either good start candidates this week or guys you should add to your roster.

The first week of byes are here on the NFL schedule. Players from the New England Patriots, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts are all off this week, meaning you will be relying on your depth in most cases this week to fill out a roster. Bye weeks also require looking for good matchups and players who are playing well heading into the week. Fantasy experts all over the internet make suggestions as to who you should start/sit or pick up off waivers. These are my suggestions, many of which I’ll either be starting or snagging off waivers before this afternoon’s contests.

1. Chris Perry, RB, CIN …

For the rest of the column, go here.

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This week’s nugget, or trend worth noting, involves the Carolina Panthers … specifically Jonathan Stewart and the running game.

Stewart, in all aspects of the game, became the primary running back for the Panthers in week 2 with 77 yards rushing and two touchdowns against a fairly stingy Chicago defense. Last week, Carolina faced a reinvigorated Minnesota defense, and Stewart struggled (15 yards rushing, TD) along with the rest of the Panther offense.

However, things are really looking up for the Panthers. First, Steve Smith is back on the field, and as he becomes re-acclimated to game play, the Carolina offense will be able to spread the field, opening more running lanes for Stewart. However, the main reason to get giddy about the Panthers is the upcoming schedule — which I consider the softest of any of the NFL teams in terms of run defense. After a game against Atlanta Sunday, the Panthers face Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New Orleans before their week 8 bye. Then, Carolina picks up with Oakland, Detroit, Atlanta, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Denver (all of which have struggled against the run).

The bottom line is that Jonathan Stewart may be attainable in some leagues after struggling last week, but as early as this Sunday, he will be back in the top echelon of fantasy running backs. The next 24 hours may be the last time this season you could consider Stewart a buy-low candidate.

On a side note, looking at that same schedule, you will want to bump up each of your Carolina Panthers in fantasy rankings — including the Panther team defense/special teams.

jzak

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It is amazing to me just how pathetic first-round fantasy football players are doing this season. You draft a player in the first round because you want something reliable to anchor your team. However, first-rounders have been anything but reliable this season.

Who would have thought that LaDanian Tomlinson wouldn’t score a TD until week 3? Or that Adrian Peterson would be dealing with an injury by week 3? Or that Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson would be so disappointing this early? Even Brian Westbrook has been visited unexpectedly early by the injury bug.

However, the Tom Brady injury and subsequent Randy Moss value fallout is what interests me the most at the moment. Perhaps it is because I drafted Moss in the first round of my main money league this year.

I had never really owned Moss before. I was always a RB-in-the-first-round-only kind of guy. However, this particular league had just this year switched to a PPR league, and Moss slipped to me at No. 9. I struggled with the choice between him and Marshawn Lynch (how I wish now I stuck with my gut on Lynch).

Anyway, Moss finished week one with respectable numbers despite Brady’s season-ending knee injury (six receptions, 116 yards, TD). He followed with a miserable two receptions and 22 yards in a close conference matchup against the Jets. At that point, it was time to panic some about Moss. I was looking forward to his week 3 game against Miami, figuring he would produce decent numbers and be at a point where I could deal him. As we all now know, Moss finished with just four receptions and 25 yards, in spite of the fact that the Patriots were playing from behind against in inferior defense.

What seemed to be more telling was his demeanor during the game. He didn’t sit with the offense on the bench during the first half, instead opting to sit by himself. He also dogged it on several receiving plays — not making an effort on plays he could have contributed on. For an example, check out this YouTube video: Randy Moss dogging it

While I didn’t see the postgame interview, I heard that Randy Moss handed himself maturely and professionally, but the underlying question is how long will it be until Moss reverts to the train wreck that played (or didn’t play) in Oakland?

So what should Moss owners do? According to a recent article by Scott Pianowski at Yahoo, it is time to “sell low.” I have a problem with this.

First, to sell low means that you expect him to get better at some point this season – selling at a low point means that he’ll have a few high points the rest of the way. If you feel that he is going to rebound at some point, it is a bad idea to sell him now. It would be better to bench him and pick up a trendy sleeper receiver (such as a Justin Gage, Antonio Bryant or Brandon Lloyd) and wait for Moss to either rebound enough to start on your roster, or to improve his value enough to move him. Let’s face it – the Patriots are not an organization that is satisfied playing second fiddle. If Cassel continues to struggle launching the long ball to Moss, the Patriots will take action, and someone else will be at the helm. Moss’ value should improve with anyone short of the Pillsbury Doughboy under center.

On the flip side, after seeing early signs of Moss’ poor attitude, it would be perfectly normal to want to move him – thinking that things will continue to deteriorate. In this case, you are selling high, albeit not as high as you once expected for a first-round talent.

Before the miserable showing vs. the Miami Dolphins, it was reasonable to package Moss in a deal and expect a second-tier WR1 in return – someone like an Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall (before his big game), Plaxico Burress or Steve Smith (Carolina). However, after the Miami game, you may have to temper expectations by targeting guys like Dwayne Bowe, Jerricho Cotchery, Santana Moss (although he is on a hot streak right now and probably overvalued by his respective owner), etc. Another option may be similarly struggling Braylon Edwards, depending on how frustrated Edwards’ owner may be in your league.

I have Moss in two leagues. In one league, I’ve decided to hold onto him and ride out the storm – to see where his stats go from here. In the other league – the money league I mentioned above – I’m floating his name around in trade offers to see if there are any bites. Ultimately, I may be benching him in that league, too, and riding out the storm.

Whatever you personally decide to do with Moss on your team depending on the parameters in your league,  the decisions won’t be easy. Let me know if you have some trade ideas or thoughts in general about Moss this year. I’d love to discuss them further or offer some feedback on your trade scenarios.

Good luck!

jzak

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Sometimes fantasy football league commissioners have a tough job. Take, for example, one commissioner, who asked my opinion on a pending trade in his league.

Someone offered Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison for Frank Gore. The trade was pending, based on league votes. Several people had voted to veto the deal, feeling it was too one-sided. The commissioner was wondering what to do next.

Issues such as these can get really messy and can actually ruin fantasy leagues. Deciding on who got the better end of the deal becomes a matter of opinion. One person’s idea of a one-sided trade could be another person’s idea of a good bargain deal. …

For the rest of the column, go here: ‘Veto the veto?’

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Our goal was to develop a fun, interactive Web site where we could talk fantasy sports strategies and discuss ideas about the season, players and games that make fantasy sports so much fun.

Neither Eric Pehowic nor myself would consider ourselves true experts in fantasy footbal or baseball — but we’ve played long enough to know how to survive in competitive leagues. Our goal is to develop interative discussions about various hot topics in fantasy sports. Soon we will be incorporating forums and other interactive media as we strive to develop a community of regular, down-to-earth people who like to play fantasy sports.

And, who knows … you may learn a thing or two in the process. I’m sure we will.

Thanks for checking out our site and we hope to see you here again.

If you have any questions, suggestions or comments, please let us know ASAP.

John Zaktansky

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