2016 Draft Kit

Daily fantasy baseball advice for Monday, July 26: Fantasy points for and against starting pitchers

Start pitchers against teams that have hit poorly against starting pitchers. Start batters against teams that have had poor performance out of starting pitchers.

This isn’t a daily fantasy baseball rule of thumb, but maybe it should be. It at least makes sense to me. But Google “fantasy points scored against starting pitchers” and you are not going to find the droids you’re looking for.

So, I decided to make up my own chart as best as possible with the statistics available. Using the statistical split “innings pitched: 1-6” was the best solution. While there are 3-inning bombs and complete-game gems, the sixth inning is a cutoff for a pitcher to complete a quality start, so I didn’t have any concerns using it.

I took the statistics from the split and applied a fantasy points formula to it in both Draft Kings and FanDuel scoring to come up with two charts.

Batters average fantasy points per game in innings 1-6

Rk Team DK FD
1 Toronto Blue Jays 7.94 2.50
2 Houston Astros 7.68 2.29
3 Cincinnati Reds 7.55 2.24
4 New York Yankees 7.54 2.28
5 Los Angeles Dodgers 7.47 2.24
6 Chicago Cubs 7.32 2.10
7 Texas Rangers 7.32 2.16
8 Arizona Diamondbacks 7.31 2.19
9 Baltimore Orioles 7.30 2.16
10 Minnesota Twins 7.14 2.09
11 Detroit Tigers 7.12 2.15
12 Cleveland Indians 7.09 2.06
13 Seattle Mariners 7.05 1.99
14 San Diego Padres 7.04 1.92
15 Los Angeles Angels 7.01 2.00
16 Washington Nationals 7.01 2.04
17 Milwaukee Brewers 7.00 1.98
18 Tampa Bay Rays 6.94 1.93
19 St. Louis Cardinals 6.93 1.99
20 New York Mets 6.92 1.92
21 Oakland Athletics 6.87 1.94
22 Boston Red Sox 6.84 1.95
23 Colorado Rockies 6.84 2.02
24 Pittsburgh Pirates 6.82 1.95
25 Philadelphia Phillies 6.67 1.79
26 Kansas City Royals 6.66 1.92
27 San Francisco Giants 6.65 1.92
28 Miami Marlins 6.57 1.78
29 Atlanta Braves 6.56 1.83
30 Chicago White Sox 6.33 1.65

*This list was created around the 98-game mark of the 2015 MLB season. Sorted by Draft Kings scoring.

Starting pitchers: Opposing lineups to avoid

There are some interesting tiers here. The Toronto Blue Jays are clearly the most terrifying lineup for opposing pitchers in 2015. The Houston Astros are a distant second, but in a tier of their own, then I’d drop Cincinnatti Reds, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in another tier, giving us a top-5 most feared lineups for 2015.

Think twice about starting pitchers against them. I’m not going to post the FanDuel chart. There are some changes, but the top-five remains the same.

Starting pitchers: Opposing lineups to target

The tiering is just as clear on the other side of the list, where the Chicago White Sox stand alone by a significant margin from the next team. Then we have the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals and Philadelphia Phillies, who I’d put in the same tier.

The FanDuel chart does differ a bit in this case. Like the Draft Kings list, it flops a couple teams around. It also adds the San Diego Padres and New York Mets to the bottom of the second tier.

While looking up these statistics I also thought it might be interesting to look at the pitching numbers. I was also able to split those based on the first-through-sixth inning criteria. So we can look at average points from pitchers during that time frame to determine teams we may or may not want to target.

Pitchers average fantasy points per game in innings 1-6

Rk Team DK FD
1 Colorado Rockies 11.15 8.29
2 Philadelphia Phillies 11.74 8.58
3 Texas Rangers 12.66 9.00
4 Minnesota Twins 13.47 9.42
5 Toronto Blue Jays 13.62 9.51
6 Boston Red Sox 13.65 9.48
7 Arizona Diamondbacks 13.77 9.43
8 Cincinnati Reds 13.80 9.34
9 Detroit Tigers 13.89 9.50
10 Kansas City Royals 13.98 9.73
11 Milwaukee Brewers 14.21 9.72
12 Miami Marlins 14.24 9.39
13 Baltimore Orioles 14.71 9.94
14 New York Yankees 15.05 10.16
15 Atlanta Braves 15.13 10.11
16 San Francisco Giants 15.25 10.16
17 Seattle Mariners 15.53 10.24
18 Chicago White Sox 15.84 10.39
19 Los Angeles Angels 15.93 10.47
20 Washington Nationals 15.98 10.55
21 Houston Astros 16.22 10.76
22 Oakland Athletics 16.44 10.49
23 San Diego Padres 16.68 10.88
24 Cleveland Indians 17.22 11.00
25 New York Mets 17.31 11.06
26 Tampa Bay Rays 17.46 11.16
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 17.83 11.44
28 Chicago Cubs 17.87 11.34
29 Los Angeles Dodgers 18.46 11.78
30 St. Louis Cardinals 19.15 12.18

*This list was created around the 98-game mark of the 2015 MLB season. Sorted by Draft Kings scoring.

Batters: Rotations to target

This chart is less helpful. The numbers are inflated because of the wins category. Wins are worth four fantasy points each and because there are no options to add them to the innings 1-6 split, the entire teams’ win totals, from all pitcher types, were included.

You also can’t rely completely on team statistics when looking at matchups against pitchers because of situations like the Philadelphia Phillies. They have the second-worst performance out of pitchers in inning 1-6 this season, but they also have a bona fide ace in Cole Hamels, who threw a no-hitter over the weekend.

Use this chart as a supplement to your other research on pitcher matchups. Generally speaking it’s safe to say other Phillies are prime targets and that the defense probably isn’t doing them many favors. In season-long leagues, if you have a marginal hitter going into a series against the Phillies make sure you have him in your lineup.

The Phillies, Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers make up the top tier here. The second tier runs from the Minnesota Twins to the Kansas City Royals.

Batters: Rotations to avoid

The same rule goes for this list. The St. Louis Cardinals have the most effective pitchers in innings 1-through-6, but most teams have to throw a fish or two out there every season due to rest or injury. But remember, the ranking probably also reflects a relatively decent defensive team as well.

The Cardinals stand alone in the top tier and I’d say the Los Angeles Dodgers, in second, are also in a company of their own. The next tier is the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. And I’d extend this list to another tier, including the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets and Cleveland Indians.

Draft Kings plays for Monday, July 27

Here are some players I’ll be using in my Draft Kings lineups today:

Pitcher: Chris Heston, Anibal Sanchez, Jorge de la Rosa, Joe Kelly, Cody Anderson

Catcher: Mike Zunino, Buster Posey

First base: Anthony Rizzo, Todd Frazier, Prince Fielder

Second base: Kolten Wong, Rougned Odor

Third base: Alex Rodriguez, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Jhonny Peralta

Outfield: Chris Young, Dexter Fowler, Adam Jones, Yoenis Cespedes, Ryan Braun, Gregor Blanco, Jarrod Dyson

If you win big using any of this information, please come back and tell us about it in the comments.

May variance be in your favor today and every day.

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