2016 Draft Kit

Daily pitcher rankings and Draft Kings value plays for Thursday, April 9

Six of today’s nine games start early so that means you get the pitcher rankings early today.

Let’s go.

Stephen StrasburgIan Kennedy is an obvious pairing for me in cash games. Strasburg isn’t in the 12,000 range, but has the most talent, the highest K rate and strong matchup and park factors with one of the highest win probabilities of the day.

[UPDATE 12:03 p.m. — The way the games are set up today, there’s no way to pair these two. My early game pitcher pairing is Strasburg and Shane Green, who I talk about below. In the later games I have Kennedy paired with Tim Hudson. All of the good secondary options are in the early games.]

Anything can happen, but I feel like if we don’t roster him in cash games we don’t stand much of a chance.

I’m pairing him with Kennedy because he has similar strong factors with the No. 3 K ranking, a slightly better win probability and a better park factor than Strasburg. His weighted on-base average matchup is a little worse, but it’s still top-8.

Seven pitchers in all rank in the top 10 in at least three categories today. They are all viable options, but I’ve got some money riding in PGA so I’m not going too deep in baseball today.

In GPPs — I drop at least one but usually four lineups into the .25-cent arcade each day — I’m going to have some Shane Green. Las Vegas thinks he’s the most likely to get a win and Rotogrinders thinks he’ll have the second-highest strikeouts per 9 innings. His matchup and park are middle of the road, but his salary is dirt cheap, which allows you to stack as many Blue Jays, Tigers, whoevers as you want.

Edinson Volquez also rates highly in Ws and Ks with a slightly better wOBA matchup and park factor. I’ll probably have him in at least one GPP lineup.

Kendall Graveman is just $5,100. The price alone is enough to make many owners consider him for GPP. But Las Vegas thinks he’s pitching for the team second-most likely to win, he’s got the third best wOBA matchup and Rotogrinders thinks he’ll have the ninth-best K/9 of the day. He also has an above average park factor.

Toronto’s bats supposedly have a good wOBA matchup, but CC Sabathia appears to be the next best pitcher play in GPPs, according to my chart. That kind of uncertainty means I’ll be staying away in cash but may consider him in GPPs.

Trevor Bauer is ninth in win potential, but fifth in matchup and sixth in K potential against the Astros, so I’ll have to consider him for my arcade lineups.

I’m working on a value chart that compares all other pitchers to the most expensive pitcher of the day. Think of it more as a compass than a road map. Yesterday it SCREAMED Carrasco and led to some profits for me, but it’s unproven at this point.

Value chart

VAL       Tm Opp DK
428.57 3 Shane Greene DET MIN 6000
400.00 4 Edinson Volquez KCR CWS 6200
360.00 2 Ian Kennedy SDP SFG 7800
342.86 5 Kendall Graveman OAK TEX 5100
256.72 6 Tim Hudson SFG SDP 6200
201.87 14 David Buchanan PHI BOS 5100
192.00 11 John Danks CWS KCR 5700
191.30 7 Trevor Bauer CLE HOU 7200
186.44 16 Nick Martinez TEX OAK 5000
184.91 13 Kyle Gibson MIN DET 5600
181.05 10 Anthony Desclafani CIN PIT 6200
158.87 18 Asher Wojciechowski HOU CLE 4900
150.50 12 Justin Masterson BOS PHI 6700
140.85 9 A.J. Burnett PIT CIN 8000
133.33 17 Daniel Norris TOR NYY 6000
102.86 8 CC Sabathia NYY TOR 8700
59.65 15 Matt Harvey NYM WAS 8800
0.00 1 Stephen Strasburg WAS NYM 10500

Here are the full rankings

Tm Opp DK W wOBA K Park AVG
1 Stephen Strasburg WAS NYM 10500 6 6 1 4 5.25
2 Ian Kennedy SDP SFG 7800 5 8 3 2 7.50
3 Shane Greene DET MIN 6000 1 15 2 16 10.50
4 Edinson Volquez KCR CWS 6200 4 10 4 9 10.75
5 Kendall Graveman OAK TEX 5100 2 3 9 13 15.75
6 Tim Hudson SFG SDP 6200 14 1 10 2 16.75
7 Trevor Bauer CLE HOU 7200 9 5 6 25 17.25
8 CC Sabathia NYY TOR 8700 7 9 5 29 17.50
9 A.J. Burnett PIT CIN 8000 8 2 7 26 17.75
10 Anthony Desclafani CIN PIT 6200 11 18 8 26 23.75
11 John Danks CWS KCR 5700 15 11 13 9 25.00
12 Justin Masterson BOS PHI 6700 3 4 14 24 25.25
13 Kyle Gibson MIN DET 5600 18 17 11 16 26.50
14 David Buchanan PHI BOS 5100 16 7 12 24 26.75
15 Matt Harvey NYM WAS 8800 13 12 17 4 28.50
16 Nick Martinez TEX OAK 5000 17 13 15 13 29.50
17 Daniel Norris TOR NYY 6000 12 14 16 29 33.75
18 Asher Wojciechowski HOU CLE 4900 10 16 18 25 35.25

Good luck today and every day.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: EP has been playing fantasy sports since 1996. He is among the top third of overall players at RotoGrinders.com. He won two NBA GPPs this season, his first dedicating significant time to NBA lineups, and is among the top 32% of hockey players. He’ll use the same methods in an attempt to crack an MLB tournament in 2015.





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