Everybody loves sleepers and busts lists.
There are people who are Googling right now and finding this post out of word recognition alone. Welcome, and please enjoy.
Not to disappoint you — yes you — already, but this post contains no sleepers. And you’ll find no busts. For those of you that haven’t clicked back to the search results yet, what you will find is some general advice for when you’re reading your next collections of sleepers and busts.
First off, all fantasy advice is based on someone’s opinion. Some advice is more based on hard evidence, other advice is based on The Gut (TM). In the end, the projections you’re using from ESPN are as “accurate” as any projections you’ll get here. And anyone else is as likely to hit on their “hunches” as we are.
Sleeper and bust lists, by their very nature, are the most opinionated of all this advice. Yes, we look at statistics, trends and situations, but the bottom line is we’re telling you to reach a little for players who you barely know about or would even think about picking. Or we’re telling you to avoid players who some others consider locks for 30 homers or a .330 average.
Form your own opinions
What you need to do is form your own opinion about players and use the advice you read to support or contradict your opinions.
Whenever you look at a sleeper or bust list, and you really should look at a lot of them, make sure to read any explanations that are included. Some of the insight you get about players from just a sentence or two on sites as off the mainstream as www.chinstrapninjas.com will surprise you.
Hopefully, you’ll find enough information here to change your preconceptions about a player or two. Hopefully, you’ll leave some opinions of your own in the comments and change our minds, too.
Dude, I know you’re a hardcore fantasy baseballer, but I still wouldn’t avoid the mainstream outlets if I were you. ESPN, Rotowire, Baseball Prospectus, these folks are the cream of the crop. They get paid good money to do this fantasy thing.
But, there is a wash for them, too. They get paid good money to be correct, so for some it’s going to be difficult to stick their necks out.
When it comes to sleepers and busts, you need to stick your neck out or maybe they shouldn’t be called sleepers or busts.
Sleepers and busts
Again, going back to the very nature of sleepers and busts, if everyone agrees that Player A is a sleeper and that Player 2 is a bust, then are they really?
Seriously. If you go into your draft and everyone’s saying how you shouldn’t pick Player 2 or Player A is going 7-10 rounds earlier than he should in every mock draft then we can’t really call them sleepers or busts.
The perfect sleeper has got to be someone you can get in the final third of your draft but performs like he should have been in the top third.
A perfect bust has to be a player a lot of people are picking in the first 3-5 rounds who just falls flat on his face.
So who’s sleepin’ and bustin’ in fantasy baseball in 2010? Thanks for reading down this far, (loyal or new) sleeper/bust searcher. Your reward will come in post form very, very soon.
Before we unveil those things (the lists are, in fact, covered under a veil in the Chinstrap Ninjas vault), we’ve gotta go back and look at our track record last year.
That’s right, we’re going to take some accountability for what we said a year ago. We’re taking deep breaths because there are going to be some picks that will sting. There will be others that make us hork bacon out our nose in a “WE GOT THAT RIGHT!” kind of way.
And, yes, we eat bacon. We had a bacon vending machine put in down the hall right next to the vault.
Bacon, eaten in moderation, keeps the awesome in your blood.
When you take a break from Chinstrap Ninjas and visit other sites to read about sleepers and busts, where do you go? Share your answers with us and our readers in the comments.