Does Chris Johnson’s 2009 workload concern you?
On Nov. 16, 2009, we published the Chris Johnson for first pick 2010 manifesto. That was pre-Thanksgiving and the Titans superstar running back had barely passed the mid-point of his assault on NFL defenses. He had 1,156 more total yards and 208 touches ahead of him in 2009.
That sounds insane, right? It is. Dude finished with 408 total touches (358 rushes) and more than 2,500 all-purpose yards. The perfromance left no doubt that a manifesto was not necessary. But it was also a lot of work for our 2010 fantasy football holy grail, especially one who had just 294 touches the year before.
So, should we be scared? Yes. And maybe not.
The fact that Johnson saw such an enormous increase in work (118 more touches in just one year) should be a bit alarming. The fact he was so strong down the stretch — in five of the seven games after the manifesto he had at least 27 carries — should scare away any fears we had about the diminutive back’s durability.
But most human bodies can only handle so much work, regardless of age, size or health.
The rule of 370
While the hokey rule of 370 doesn’t quite apply in this case, it is worth noting. The rule of 370 states that a running back with 370 carries or more in one season sees a significant decline the following season. Michael Turner proved it true in 2008, LaDanian Tomlinson proved it in 2007 and Larry Johnson proved it true in 2006.
That rule doesn’t quite fit in 2010 because Johnson only had 358 carries. But the total is only 12 away from that hated arbitrary number, and Johnson put plenty more miles on his legs in the passing game. Ask LT if that extra mileage adds up.
What about 400 touches?
Johnson had more than 400 touches in 2010. Like the 370, the number seems arbitrary, but there are several other backs who reached that workload milestone in recent seasons and the follow-up seasons were not good.
It hasn’t been done since 2006, when three different backs — Johnson, Tomlinson and Steven Jackson — carried whole teams on their backs. Of those RBs, only LT played a full slate the following year and he has declined sharply since that 2007 season.
LJ, who had 416 carries and 41 catches, has been a shell of his former self and Jackson only last season finally returned more to form after missing four games in both 2007 and 2008. LJ will be 31 in November and LT will be 31 at the end of June. Jackson’s comeback shouldn’t come as much of surprise because he is the young pup of the bunch. He will be 27 in July.
In 2005, two backs reached 400 touches — Edgerrin James and Tiki Barber.
James followed up his 1,800-total yard, 14-TD season with almost 500 less total yards and eight fewer TDs as he shared carries with Joseph Addai. Barber, the lone outlier of the bunch, followed up a 411-touch, 2,390-total yard behemoth of a season with another over 2,000 (2,127 to be exact). He did have fewer TDs, but blame that on Brandon Jacobs, not Barber.
Like Tiki
It’s fitting that we find ourselves talking about Barber. Of all the backs studied researching this argument, Johnson can be compared most easily to Barber — a speed back who, after correcting a severe case of fumbilitis that Johnson never had to worry about, used to earn chunks and chunks of yards as the cornerstone of his team.
Johnson is 5-11, 200 pounds. Barber, in 2006, was 5-10, 205. Most importantly, Johnson shares another trait with the former Giants back — the ability to avoid skull-crushing hits.
Let’s hope we can make one more comparison — the one where both backs follow up a backbreaking season with another display of fantasy supremacy.
What do you think? Is the workload a problem for Johnson? Do you believe he will play a full 16 games? Let us know in the comments.
I did a study on the high carry and touch es issue before in 2008. Like you said 2007 was the big LT2, SJAX, Gore seasons. I also found that 1 out of 3 running backs coming off record setting seasons either were injured or missed significant time due to injury. The others saw a decrease in yards or TD’s or both. Like you said even Barber’s TD numbers declined.
That all said I liken Chris Johnson’s situation to that of Larry Johnson. LJ was disgruntled over his contract and missed all of training camp. This certainly sounds eerily similar to what CJ2K is going through this offseason. I say if he is a no show for training camp, his numbers will take a significant hit in 2010. Just an observation from past NFL History which tends to repeat itself.
@Sockonfl: I agree that things don’t bode well for Johnson with the holdout, workload combo. The rub is it will be almost impossible to pick someone else No. 1 overall.
I also looked at backs with more than 370 total touches — another arbitrary number, I know — dating back to 2006 and found that it was a mixed bag.
Edgerrin James, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tiki Barber and Adrian Peterson all had great follow up seasons after getting 370 touches.
Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte and Clinton Portis did not. After his second consecutive season with 370+, Tomlinson began his decline.
An important thing to keep in mind when evaluating Johnnson’s potential impact next year is to remember Tennessee began the season 0-6 and essentially spent the last month of season solely focused on getting Johnson in position for his historic season.
I specificly remember the Miami game where Tennessee committed two series on Johnson, believe it was eight or nine straight plays called for him (rushing and passing). I doubt that will happen again this season.
Though the Titans started winning when they did so, Johnson was also helped by playing against a string of putrid rush defenses.
How much a fantasy owner feels Johnson will drop back in his production is key to being confident he is the No. 1 overall guy. I don’t see why Peterson, Rice or Jones-Drew could be options for the top spot?
@Jay-Mo: When you put up numbers like Johnson did in 2009 you’re going to go No. 1 overall in 90% of fantasy leagues.
However, I agree completely that other guys could go No. 1.
For me, the only no-doubt potential No. 1 is MJD.
[...] of the NFL has even rushed for 1,500 yards after a 2,000-yard season. Plus as ep alluded to here, he had 358 rushing attempts, only 12 short of the dubious curse of 370. He also had over 400 [...]
[...] Chris Johnson (ADP: 1.11) — If his 2009 workload wasn’t enough to concern you, his holdout [...]
I’m not worried about Chris Johnson because of last year’s workload. I’d be interested to see the percentages of ALL backs that had successful seasons dropping off the next season, regardless of touch numbers. Johnson had such a special year in 2009 that’s it’s only logical to realize that season won’t be repeated. He also plays running back in the NFL, so it’s also reasonable to believe he has a chance at getting injured, as so many guys do. Drafting CJ expecting another monster season is foolish. It’s just not likely to happen. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and Maurice Jones-Drew all have the potential to be as good as Johnson. That’s not a stretch, they’re all VERY talented runners. So no, I’m not worried about last year’s touches, but I am worried that expectations are WAY too high if someone drafts CJ expecting 2009 numbers.
@Mike: Thanks for the insight. I agree that a second consecutive historic-type season is near impossible for Johnson.