Yesterday’s predictions paid off. There was no tournament win, but if you do well enough to cash in a tournament every day, you’re going to do pretty well for yourself.
Yesterday I was a bit constrained because of the early slate. Today I’m a bit constrained because of work. But I have changed up the formula a bit and I can’t wait to see what a few weeks of this style of ranking will produce. It’s not nearly as time consuming as the original formula but it appears to be better than the low-maintenance style I went with for a while.
Here are the pitchers I’ll be using most today:
Max Scherzer, $11,500 — I should only have to try to talk you out of starting a stud pitcher if you can afford him. The one downside here is that the Diamondbacks have only struck out the 19th-most in MLB this season.
Gerrit Cole, $8,900 — Like Scherzer the one big concern for Cole today is that Philadelphia, as bad as they’ve been, has struck out less (20th) than the Diamondbacks.
Jacob deGrom, $8,100 — My top play of the day. He should win the day in strikeouts against the Cubs. The big concern with deGrom is that Las Vegas expects Jon Lester and Cubs to win this thing and score more runs than any other team in the game with the highest over/under of the day. I’m holding J, Q suited and staying in because of the strikeout upside.
Jon Lester, $9,700 — Lester’s price is a bit inflated considering how he has pitched. However, with his rotund BABIP and WHIP he should be better. The Mets don’t strikout out a ton, but Lester is expected to lead the day in innings pitched in one of the friendlier pitcher’s parks and is the fourth-most likely pitcher to win today.
Zack Greinke, $10,200 — My pre-research lineup was Greinke and deGrom. Greinke, against the Marlins, who have struck out third-most in MLB, feels like a no-brainer. And Greinke tops my upside chart so I’m going to have some ownership. However, his BABIP and WHIP indicate he’s been getting a little lucky and he’s throwing at Dodger Stadium, which has been friendly to hitters this season.
Danny Duffy, $6,400, or Jerome Williams, $4,300 — I’m going to recommend Duffy over Williams by quite a bit, but this part of the list is supposed to be about pitchers you can own for the price of a top-tier outfielder. Williams’ current price is a middle-tier outfielder. Yes, he’s pitching for the Phillies so we can’t expect him to win. However, Williams has the No. 2 weighted on-base average matchup of the day, the Pirates have struck out 11th-most in MLB and Williams’ BABIP and WHIP indicate he’s been unlucky this season. It’s a maximum risky play, but he saves you $4,000 from Jeff Samardzija or Cole, money that could provide huge upgrades to your lineup. Duffy gets the Rangers, who have struck out seventh most and provide the fourth-best wOBA matchup. Vegas also thinks Duffy is likely to win and his BABIP and WHIP show he’s due for some good fortune.
One advantage to the low-maintenance binge was my concentration on hitters which has worked out pretty well. Again, when I have some more time I’m going to go into detail about some best practices when picking lineups. For now, I just have these lists.
Stacking hitters can pay huge dividends. Many players stack 3, 4 or even 6 hitters from one team. It’s a risky play because if the pitcher pulls a gem out of his, err, glove, you’ve got a lot of zeroes. But if the top of the lineup goes bananas you’ve got a huge advantage over your opponents.
Here are the teams I think have the best stackability today:
- Baltimore vs. Marco Estrada
- Kansas City vs. Colby Lewis
- Oakland vs. Rick Porcello
Other hitters to consider today
3B Evan Longoria, OF Ryan Braun, OF Gerardo Parra, 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Kelly Johnson, OF Carlos Peguero, OF Joc Pederson, C/1B Stephen Vogt, 1B Ryan Howard, OF David DeJesus, 1B Adam Lind, 3B/1B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Dustin Pedroia, 1B Joey Votto, C Devin Mesoraco, 2B Brandon Phillips, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, OF Curtis Granderson.
Good luck today and every day.