Today got off the rails fast. I’m not going to have time to do the extensive research I normally do.
I’m going to make a lot of decisions based on instinct and try to back them up with facts.
This thing is so off the rails, I’m starting with hitter stacks.
Get you some Angels vs. Kyle Kendrick and some Athletics against Justin Masterson. Kendrick is stack target du jour even when he isn’t pitching in Coors. Masterson has a 6.68 ERA against lefties and a 5.00 ERA against righties. This feels like one of those discoveries that backfires on us as soon as we try to take advantage, but where I can I’m gravitating to LAA and OAK batters today.
My top pitchers:
A.J. Burnett, $8,200 — has been pitching well and he gets the Phillies today. Las Vegas has Burnett as the pitcher most likely to win today and he has at least 17.6 fantasy points in five of his six starts this season.
Mike Fiers, $8,500 — I know he could only last four innings. I also know he could last six and strike out 12, like he did against the Cubs two starts ago. He’s also good at oppressing right-handed bats, like White Sox slugger Jose Abreu.
Chris Archer, $8,300 — Archer has been awful the last two starts after a meteoric start to the season, but if he can find his control — he issued four walks in each of the bad outings — he has the opportunity to put up a big strikeout total today.
Noah Syndergaard, $7,200 — To make an omelette you have to break a few eggs. Sure, Syndergaard is making his Major League debut so there is some concern. He’s also facing the Cubs, who hit back-to-back homers in the first inning and beat Jacob deGrom yesterday. However, Syndergaard was pulverizing bats in AAA this season, striking out 34 to only eight walks, with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. No team has struck out more than the Cubs this season.
Chris Heston, $4,800 — Yes, Heston got rocked in two of his last three starts. He also has 18.4 or more fantasy points in his other four starts this season. The Astros are hitting just .228 as a team, third worst in MLB, and only the Cubs have more strikeouts. There is quite a bit of risk here however — that should be expected when you’re considering a $4,800 pitcher — because the game is in Houston, a notorious hitter’s park, and the Astros have pounded 45 homers this season, second-most in the Majors.
Some hitters to target. There are some amazing values out there.
OF/SS Elian Herrera has been playing 3B while Aramis Ramirez has been battling a wonky back. Herrera scored 23 and 16 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He costs just $2,200. You’ll want to make sure he’s in the lineup — he’s started four straight — but at that price and production he’s almost a must-play.
OF Carlos Peguero has been on my lists for a couple days now. At just $3,400, he gives you salary relief and he has four homers despite not debuting this season until May 2. His performance does indicate his batting upswing may be on its way back to earth, but he’s still worth a shot at this price.
OF Adam Jones is one of my favorite plays right now. He’s a $5,000 player at $4,300 who has scored 24 points combined in his last two games.
SS Troy Tulowitzki‘s salary is all the way down to $4,400. Like Jones, it usually sits in the $5,000 range. Tulo is also 5-for-his-last-11 with three runs scored. He struck out five times over the same span and only one of his hits went for extra bases, which is deflating his scores quite a bit.
OF Josh Reddick might be my favorite play of the day. He’s averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game in his last 10, but his salary is still down to $3,700. He also scored 12 points in his last game and, like I said above, he could be in for a day against Masterson.
Which super values did I miss? Leave yours in the comments.
Finding player values like these are the kinds of things that will vault us to a tournament win.
Good luck today and every day.