2016 Draft Kit

Draft Kings daily fantasy baseball advice for Wednesday, May 20

My pitchers let me down yesterday. I hope you had more success.

Today we have to talk about the big $300,000 contest over at Draft Kings. Entry fee is $3 and top prize is $100,000.

Do the math on that one. That’s a huge potential return on investment. Yes, the tournament payout structure is extremely top heavy — finish 10th and you only get $1,000. That’s still a nice payout, but a huge drop from first. So with that in mind, I don’t recommend throwing too much money at it, especially if, like me, you drink Old Milwuakee Light because it’s $15 for a 30-pack.

I still put two lineups out there and one of the lineups was built using a new strategy that popped into my head this morning. It will be fine, I’m sure.

Contrarian pitchers lineup

The strategy incorporates a new kind of contrarianism — new for me at least. I’m sure someone somewhere has “discovered” this before. Probably a lot of people have discovered it. I have no delusions that I’m some sort of genius. Just a dude at a computer who drinks Old Milwuakee Light.

The industry standard is to pay for pitching or at least pay for one pitcher. Pitchers are the most consistent and most consistently prolific players in fantasy baseball. But what if we went full contrarian with our pitchers, seeking the best low-priced options of the day every day?

Then we will end up with higher-owned superstar batters, like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, but unlike our opponents we’d have ALL of the absolute best hitting options in our lineups. So instead of avoiding the No. 1 or 2 option at a position because everyone might be owning them, we go after EVERY No. 1 or 2 option because few owners will be able to do it.

Obviously, there is quite a bit of risk here, but we’re trying to win a tournament, specifically one that can get us $100,000 for $3.

Here is that aforementioned lineup I built using this method. If you use it and we split the $100,000, I’m cool with that. Feel free to tweak it as you see fit. And please drop a comment to let us know how you did:

Shane Greene P DTD
Joe Kelly P
Russell Martin
E. Encarnacion
Ian Kinsler
Josh Donaldson
Troy Tulowitzki
Nelson Cruz
Denard Span
G. Stanton

Top pitchers for Wednesday, May 20

Shane Greene, $6,000 — Greene is the third-most likely pitcher to win today, he tops my weighted on-base average chart AND my strikeout chart. And at that price he gives you a lot of options, even allowing you to pair him with the next guy.

Tyson Ross, $9,000 — The most expensive pitcher on the board today is going to finish as a really solid play. He gets the Cubs, who are projected to be the fourth-lowest scoring team today. They also strike out a bunch. With all of that in mind I’m a little surprised Ross’s moneyline is only -134.

Joe Kelly, $4,900 — There are 17 batters who will cost you more than Kelly. But the Boston starter has one of the best wOBA matchups of the day against a struggling Rangers team and Las Vegas has higher confidence in him than any pitcher going in the 7 p.m. or later contests, with a moneyline of -159.

Mike Pelfrey, $4,400 — Here’s another supreme pitching value for you. I have Kelly and Pelfrey together in one lineup that is stacked with all-star bats. Pelfrey is one of only two pitchers to appear on both my strikeout chart and my wOBA chart. There are some smart fantasy baseball people touting the Pirates’ bats — Pelfrey’s foes today — so there is quite a bit of risk involved here.

Carlos Martinez, $7,200 — I have more Martinez than I do Ross. He doesn’t show up on either my wOBA or strikeout chart. But he has a great 8.89 K/9 this season and gets to face the Mets in a pitcher’s park.

Adam Warren, $4,700 — I know what you’re thinking — did he drink a whole 30-pack for breakfast? Warren’s facing the Nationals! Yes, the Nationals are knocking the stuffing out of the ball like it was a Thanksgiving Day piñata. But on paper, Warren has one of the best righty/lefty matchups of the day. I think righty/lefty splits are among our most important assets. Also, someone is going to cool off the Nationals, who strike out a lot and may overlook the Yankees starter. Warren struck out seven Rays and scored 19 fantasy points in his last outing. For the record, I don’t have Warren in any of my lineups, but the research says there’s potential here.

Other pitchers to consider: Jake Odorizzi, Bartolo Colon, Drew Hutchison, Eddie Butler and Tim Lincecum.

Contrarian pitchers bats

If we’re going with the contrarian method mentioned above, I’m getting Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Starling MarteJosh Donaldson and Ian Kinsler in a lot of lineups.

The Rockies, Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays are supposed to score the most runs today, in that order. I’m fading Rockies and Phillies because I figure most lineups in that $300,000 tournament are going to have at least a couple Rocks and Phils. The one exception I made was Troy Tulowitzki in the lineup above. His salary is down and he hasn’t played particularly well in his last 10 games, but he doubled, walked and drove in two runs last night.

The PHI@COL  game also has the highest chance of rain today, so make sure the game is still on or the situation hasn’t gotten worse before lineups lock.

Value bats

If you’re going with a Ross or Odorizzi, you’re going to have to find some value hitters. I’m using OF Todd Cunningham, 2B/3B Logan Forsythe, OF Kevin Kiermaier, 1B/3B Mark Reynolds and SS Jung Ho Kang most when I’m trying to save a few bucks today.

Good luck today and every day, but especially today. Go win that $100,000 and come back here and tell us about it.

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