2016 Draft Kit

Draft Kings daily fantasy baseball pitcher rankings for Wednesday, April 29

That risky Rafael Montero play paid off for me yesterday. I paired him with Tyson Ross and was able to stack some big bats, namely Paul Goldschmidt, Starling Marte and Brian McCann. I got zilch out of Stephen Drew or that could have been a much better day.

The top two sleeper pitcher plays yesterday were J.A. Happ and Travis Wood. Wood rated in our top-10 safe plays, but Happ wasn’t anywhere to be seen. This is a good example of the old daily fantasy axiom to know how the crowd thinks and go in the other direction. Those two pitchers had a combined 7.6% ownership in the quarter arcade yesterday.

However, it’s interesting to note that the winner didn’t have either of those pitchers. In fact, he had straight chalk: Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto. The Nationals scored 13 runs yesterday and his only non-Nationals were Eric Campbell, who scored only three points, and Mark Trumbo who mashed for 38 points.

As I said yesterday, I think the pitching formula is pretty good right now. I’m going to let it run as is for a few more days, but then I’m going to start concentrating on some hitting formulas. Stacking will definitely be part of the discussion.

Here are today’s pitcher rankings and discussion:

Tournament (upside) plays

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Michael Pineda NYY TBR 9900 4 9 2 5 14 3 29 10.40 3.50 9.43
2 Gerrit Cole PIT CHC 8800 5 7 8 4 9 5 12 7.80 6.00 7.14
3 Alex Wood ATL WAS 8400 26 20 4 10 20 11 19 16.00 7.00 15.71
4 Jeff Samardzija CWS BAL 9200 20 29 14 3 3 12 11 12.00 8.50 13.14
5 Andrew Cashner SDP HOU 8500 16 8 1 17 12 7 2 7.60 9.00 9.00
6 Phil Hughes MIN DET 7500 17 30 11 7 4 14 21 13.40 9.00 14.86
7 Drew Smyly TBR NYY 8000 27 17 9 9 17 4 29 17.20 9.00 16.00
8 Zack Greinke LAD SFG 10200 1 13 15 6 8 8 23 11.00 9.67 10.57
9 Felix Hernandez SEA TEX 10600 3 6 19 1 1 1 15 7.80 10.00 6.57
10 Bartolo Colon NYM MIA 7400 11 16 3 20 5 17 7 8.60 11.50 11.29

Gerrit Cole is going to be in a lot of my lineups tonight. he’s got the best combo. I’ll probably go with some Michael Pineda too, even though he’s throwing at Yankee Stadium. Those Tampa Bay Rays strikeouts are pretty enticing. Pineda’s counterpart, Drew Smyly, is also an intriguing option. He’ll probably be low-owned, has a decent strikeout profile and his WHIP makes me think he could keep things under control. We can’t expect him to pitch deep into the game, but if he gets rolling and can stand for seven, his K profile jumps higher.

The same thing could be said for Alex Wood, who gets a decent strikeout profile despite low expected innings pitched.

Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke always need to be in consideration if you can afford them.

Jeff Samardzija is an interesting case. Las Vegas thinks the White Sox are one of the least-likely teams to win today. But I have a feeling the White Sox are going to thump Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez.

It’s also worth noting that game is being played in a closed Oriole Park. No fans will be allowed into the stadium due to safety concerns because of the riots.

Cash game (safe) plays

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Andrew Cashner SDP HOU 8500 16 8 1 17 12 7 2 7.60 9.00 9.00
2 Gerrit Cole PIT CHC 8800 5 7 8 4 9 5 12 7.80 6.00 7.14
3 Felix Hernandez SEA TEX 10600 3 6 19 1 1 1 15 7.80 10.00 6.57
4 Bartolo Colon NYM MIA 7400 11 16 3 20 5 17 7 8.60 11.50 11.29
5 Dallas Keuchel HOU SDP 8200 15 1 6 21 2 21 2 9.20 13.50 9.71
6 Michael Pineda NYY TBR 9900 4 9 2 5 14 3 29 10.40 3.50 9.43
7 Rick Porcello BOS TOR 6500 7 26 10 28 6 25 5 10.60 19.00 15.29
8 Zack Greinke LAD SFG 10200 1 13 15 6 8 8 23 11.00 9.67 10.57
9 Jeff Samardzija CWS BAL 9200 20 29 14 3 3 12 11 12.00 8.50 13.14
10 J. Zimmermann WAS ATL 8600 6 3 29 13 10 2 19 13.20 21.00 11.71

I was surprised Andrew Cashner jumped as far as he did. He’s a sneaky play. He’s got a good park situation, throwing at Petco, and the Astros have struck out more than any team in baseball. He’s also in the top-5 of the upside plays, increasing our confidence in him tonight.

Bartolo Colon is another interesting name on both lists. He might be the best value of the day going up against the Marlins, who have struck out third-most in MLB.

Pitching in Petco will help Dallas Keuchel, it also helps that the Padres are sixth in strikeouts this season.

Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday, April 29

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Felix Hernandez SEA TEX 10600 3 6 19 1 1 1 15 7.80 10.00 6.57
2 Gerrit Cole PIT CHC 8800 5 7 8 4 9 5 12 7.80 6.00 7.14
3 Andrew Cashner SDP HOU 8500 16 8 1 17 12 7 2 7.60 9.00 9.00
4 Michael Pineda NYY TBR 9900 4 9 2 5 14 3 29 10.40 3.50 9.43
5 Dallas Keuchel HOU SDP 8200 15 1 6 21 2 21 2 9.20 13.50 9.71
6 Zack Greinke LAD SFG 10200 1 13 15 6 8 8 23 11.00 9.67 10.57
7 Bartolo Colon NYM MIA 7400 11 16 3 20 5 17 7 8.60 11.50 11.29
8 J. Zimmermann WAS ATL 8600 6 3 29 13 10 2 19 13.20 21.00 11.71
9 Mat Latos MIA NYM 7300 18 10 26 8 15 6 7 14.40 17.00 12.86
10 Jeff Samardzija CWS BAL 9200 20 29 14 3 3 12 11 12.00 8.50 13.14
11 Phil Hughes MIN DET 7500 17 30 11 7 4 14 21 13.40 9.00 14.86
12 Rick Porcello BOS TOR 6500 7 26 10 28 6 25 5 10.60 19.00 15.29
13 Matt Garza MIL CIN 6900 23 5 12 15 13 15 26 17.80 13.50 15.57
14 R.A. Dickey TOR BOS 7100 25 14 18 23 7 18 5 14.60 20.50 15.71
15 Alex Wood ATL WAS 8400 26 20 4 10 20 11 19 16.00 7.00 15.71
16 Drew Smyly TBR NYY 8000 27 17 9 9 17 4 29 17.20 9.00 16.00
17 Danny Salazar CLE KCR 9000 8 12 30 2 24 19 18 19.80 16.00 16.14
18 Carlos Martinez STL PHI 7700 2 2 24 18 29 23 17 19.00 21.00 16.43
19 Kyle Hendricks CHC PIT 6700 21 27 5 25 22 9 12 13.80 15.00 17.29
20 Matt Shoemaker LAA OAK 7800 22 23 25 14 16 10 13 17.20 19.50 17.57
21 W. Rodriguez TEX SEA 5700 28 4 21 19 17 20 15 20.20 20.00 17.71
22 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL CWS 6800 14 18 23 12 27 26 11 20.20 17.50 18.71
23 Yordano Ventura KCR CLE 7900 24 21 28 11 19 13 18 20.40 19.50 19.14
24 Shane Greene DET MIN 6400 10 24 13 22 18 27 21 17.80 17.50 19.29
25 Jesse Hahn OAK LAA 6000 13 25 16 26 23 22 13 17.40 21.00 19.71
26 Josh Collmenter ARI COL 5900 12 22 17 27 21 16 27 18.60 22.00 20.29
27 Aaron Harang PHI STL 6600 29 19 27 16 11 24 17 21.60 21.50 20.43
28 Jordan Lyles COL ARI 5500 19 11 20 29 26 29 27 24.20 24.50 23.00
29 Ryan Vogelsong SFG LAD 5800 30 28 22 24 25 28 23 25.60 23.00 25.71
30 Michael Lorenzen CIN MIL 20000 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99.00 99.00 99.00

I suspect most of my lineups will have a combination of Cole, Pineda, Cashner, King Felix and Greinke today.

Good luck today and every day





Comments are currently closed.



%d bloggers like this: