2016 Draft Kit

Draft Kings daily fantasy baseball plays for Monday, Aug. 3: Value-adjusted hitter and pitcher rankings

[Note: This article was edited to fix a typo in the date in the headline]

On Friday, I introduced our value-adjusted hitter and pitcher rankings, which adjusts Fantasy Pros’ free daily fantasy advice. So our starting point is as good as it gets.

The problem for us lineup-builders is that players are listed based on projected fantasy points. Yes, there are other tools on the page. You can sort by dollar per fantasy point, which helps to show us value. But that just pushes the best values to the top.

That leaves us with two extremes — today’s example is OF Nelson Cruz at $5,900 and SS Ketel Marte at $2,000. But how do we decide which high-priced talents to roster along with which values?

Well, I developed a formula. It didn’t finish well in tournaments on Friday because our best value pitcher stunk it up. But it started out very well and every lineup would have cashed in a 50/50. So, after a win in daily fantasy golf over the weekend — I may give you some golf rankings for this week. What? — I threw some players into a low-end 50/50 and a low-end tournament today to put it to the test again.

I haven’t been playing much baseball. We’re ramping up our fantasy football coverage, as I’m sure many of you have noticed. Check out our fantasy football strength of schedule analysis, quarterback consistency rankings, team previews or check out everything we’ve done so far in our 2015 draft kit. But this new formula has helped me reduce research time. I hope it helps you.

Don’t forget to check out Fantasy Pros’ Daily Fantasy rankings. It’s a great tool. When I dropped their projections into my spreadsheet, this is what came out:

Top 10 value-adjusted pitchers

Rk Player Opp Salary
1 Francisco Liriano (PIT – P) CHC $10,800
2 Corey Kluber (CLE – P) @LAA $11,700
3 Jose Quintana (CWS – P) TB $8,400
4 David Price (TOR – P) MIN $11,500
5 Jesse Chavez (OAK – P) BAL $6,800
6 Tyson Ross (SD – P) @MIL $9,300
7 Jon Lester (CHC – P) @PIT $10,400
8 Matt Cain (SF – P) @ATL $7,000
9 Wily Peralta (MIL – P) SD $5,800
10 Felix Hernandez (SEA – P) @COL $9,500

Francisco Liriano faces some rain concerns in Pittsburgh against the Cubs today, so my personal list has Corey Kluber at the top. Jesse Chavez is the best value on the board by a large margin. I feel like Jose Quintana is a nice middle ground from a value perspective.

Rostering both Chavez and Quintana, or even Willy Peralta, gives you some huge salary relief, the kind that lets you start every hitter you want.

Top 35 value-adjusted hitters

Rk Player B OPP P/T Time Salary
1 Franklin Gutierrez (SEA – OF) R @COL R 8:40 PM $3,100
2 Nelson Cruz (SEA – OF) R @COL R 8:40 PM $5,900
3 Buster Posey (SF – 1B/C) R @ATL R 7:10 PM $4,500
4 Kyle Seager (SEA – 3B) L @COL R 8:40 PM $4,700
5 Edwin Encarnacion (TOR – 1B) R MIN R 1:07 PM $3,900
6 Justin Smoak (TOR – 1B) B MIN R 1:07 PM $2,300
7 Bryce Harper (WSH – OF) L ARI R 7:05 PM $5,700
8 Ketel Marte (SEA – SS) B @COL R 8:40 PM $2,000
9 Troy Tulowitzki (TOR – SS) R MIN R 1:07 PM $4,500
10 Ryan Braun (MIL – OF) R SD R 8:10 PM $4,200
11 Stephen Vogt (OAK – 1B/C) L BAL R 10:05 PM $3,500
12 Josh Donaldson (TOR – 3B) R MIN R 1:07 PM $5,800
13 Carlos Gomez (HOU – OF) R @TEX R 8:05 PM $4,100
14 Freddie Freeman (ATL – 1B) L SF R 7:10 PM $4,400
15 Mark Trumbo (SEA – 1B/OF) R @COL R 8:40 PM $4,000
16 Jose Bautista (TOR – OF) R MIN R 1:07 PM $5,000
17 Clint Robinson (WSH – OF) L ARI R 7:05 PM $2,600
18 Charlie Blackmon (COL – OF) L SEA R 8:40 PM $4,600
19 Seth Smith (SEA – OF) L @COL R 8:40 PM $3,900
20 Brian Dozier (MIN – 2B) R @TOR L 1:07 PM $4,300
21 Will Venable (SD – OF) L @MIL R 8:10 PM $3,000
22 D. Espinosa (WSH – 2B/3B) B ARI R 7:05 PM $3,100
23 Melvin Upton Jr. (SD – OF) R @MIL R 8:10 PM $2,600
24 Curtis Granderson (NYM – OF) L @MIA R 7:10 PM $4,100
25 Logan Morrison (SEA – 1B/OF) L @COL R 8:40 PM $4,000
26 Austin Jackson (SEA – OF) R @COL R 8:40 PM $4,200
27 Justin Upton (SD – OF) R @MIL R 8:10 PM $4,200
28 Russell Martin (TOR – C) R MIN R 1:07 PM $4,000
29 Brandon Belt (SF – 1B) L @ATL R 7:10 PM $4,200
30 Robinson Cano (SEA – 2B) L @COL R 8:40 PM $5,000
31 Brett Wallace (SD – 1B/3B) L @MIL R 8:10 PM $2,000
32 David Peralta (ARI – OF) L @WSH R 7:05 PM $3,700
33 Matt Kemp (SD – OF) R @MIL R 8:10 PM $4,000
34 Evan Gattis (HOU – 1B) R @TEX R 8:05 PM $3,800
35 Colby Rasmus (HOU – OF) L @TEX R 8:05 PM $3,400

While the formula is meant to move values to the top of lists, it also knocks down high-priced players who aren’t expected to have a good game.

For instance, Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600) is Fantasy Pros’ No. 3 first baseman and their No. 5 hitter overall today. Our formula pushes him out of the top-35. But it highlights Edwin Encarnacion ($3,900) and Justin Smoak ($2,300) as better 1B options.

It also thinks Cruz, the most expensive hitter on the board, is worth owning.

You always want to check to see if huge values are starting and if weather is going to be a factor. I’m unsure of both for Marte, but he’s started the last three games and has four hits and two runs scored in 12 at-bats. At $2,000, if he’s starting he’s a must start for your daily fantasy lineup.

Our top value-adjusted hitter, Franklin Gutierrez, might be even more questionable. He usually only plays against lefties, but he bashed a pinch-hit grand slam against a righty on July 21. Fantasy Pros’ experts think he’ll be the No. 6 hitter today. At $3,100, that makes him real worthy of starting.

May variance be in your favor today and every day.

If you win big using any of this information, please come back and let us know about it in the comments.

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