It’s a short slate in MLB today with only six games. Two of them are in top-5 pitchers parks and one is in a top-5 hitters park.
So we have some must-start pitchers and some stacks to consider.
Let’s start with the stacks. The one game in a hitters park is Tampa Bay at Toronto. The Rays get to face Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays get to face Chris Archer.
In 24 games last season, Sanchez had a 1.08 ERA, but in his first Major League start this season, he lasted just 3.1 innings, surrendering seven hits and two homers. There’s probably a middle ground here and his strikeout numbers — 27 in 33 innings last season — show potential. If he was pitching anywhere other than the Rogers Center, I might consider starting him as a contrarian play.
Archer is pretty tough against right-handers, but I’m pretty much against ever starting a pitcher facing the Blue Jays, especially at home. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting just .190 against him with three strikeouts in 21 at bats. He also has taken him yard three times. If the Blue Jays are playing at home I’ll have a .25-cent Jaystack in play. (Definitely sticking with Jaystack.)
That game is the only one with an over/under that makes me think stack.
Lefties have had quite a bit of success against New York Mets pitcher Dillon Gee. Dee Gordon and Ichiro Suzuki, both lefties, hit leadoff and second yesterday respectively, for the Marlins. Neither one of them appear on Rotogrinders wOBA matchups chart — which takes more into consideration than just batter handedness versus a pitcher. So consider this one an experimental suggestion.
Adam Lind has a career 1.286 OPS against John Lackey in 28 at-bats. I’m not a huge fan of BvP statistics, but 28 at-bats (7 games) is a pretty good sample size. I’ll have Lind in a lineup.
Pitchers to start
This is pretty straight forward. Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels are the best and safest plays of the day.
Archie Bradley and Doug Fister provide the most potential value but have quite a bit of risk associated with them.
Fister might be overlooked because of his mid-range price. He has the best wOBA matchup against the Phillies playing in the fourth-best pitchers park in the Majors and the Nationals are the third-most likely team to win today.
Good luck today and every day.