2016 Draft Kit

Draft Kings daily fantasy starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday, April 28

A word of warning before we get to the pitchers today: The Orioles-White Sox game has been postponed again due to safety.

Baltimore already has one of the highest violent crime rates in America. It’ll probably get worse before it gets better, but I hope things calm down soon.

Alright, now let’s talk pitchers.

I was prepared to write the usual, it’s Clayton Kershaw and everybody else, but that’s not necessarily the case today. He is the safest play. Every. Game. But today’s rankings bring up a lot of interesting points, so I’m not going to dawdle too long on this intro.

I’ve been playing tournaments almost exclusively since MLB started. That’s what I’ve been focusing on, so those are the rankings we’re starting with today.

Tournament (upside) pitcher rankings

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Tyson Ross SDP HOU 9200 14 5 1 7 9 9 2 6.86 4.00 6.71
2 Julio Teheran ATL WAS 8700 21 21 3 6 3 6 19 10.84 4.50 11.29
3 Johnny Cueto CIN MIL 10400 13 13 6 4 2 2 26 9.61 5.00 9.43
4 Rafael Montero NYM MIA 6500 19 16 2 13 29 29 7 16.81 7.50 16.43
5 Jake Odorizzi TBR NYY 7300 25 10 7 9 16 8 29 15.93 8.00 14.86
6 Clayton Kershaw LAD SFG 12400 4 15 16 1 1 1 23 8.86 8.50 8.71
7 Sonny Gray OAK LAA 8500 2 27 18 5 5 5 13 9.66 11.50 10.71
8 Chase Whitley NYY TBR 4100 7 7 4 21 20 26 29 16.74 12.50 16.29
9 Drew Hutchison TOR BOS 6700 23 12 17 10 19 11 5 14.43 13.50 13.86
10 M. Bumgarner SFG LAD 10000 28 26 24 3 6 3 23 16.47 13.50 16.14

Tyson Ross is topping all the charts today. Look at those rankings. He’s also pitching at home in Petco. That helps a lot. He should be strongly considered in any format today.

Rafael Montero is the next player I want to talk about. He’s got no place on your cash game lineups today or even in season long. However, I love him as a daily tournament play. Let’s be real. Giancarlo Stanton and friends could turn this into a mini home run derby. No doubt about it. Look at that projected WHIP, IP and win probability. But you also need to look at that strikeout potential. The Marlins have struck out more than every team in Major League Baseball except one. He also is projected to have the 13th-most strikeouts despite having the lowest number of innings pitched. If he gets two more innings pitched and the Marlins whiff at their expected rate he could top all pitchers in strikeouts today at a cost of $6,500. It’s a risky play, sure, but if you swing and connect you’re in the money.

Julio Teheran is another interesting case. He’s second on this chart because of his strikeout potential and the Nationals penchant for striking out. Johnny Cueto has a similar matchup, but he’s pitching at Great American Ballpark so I’m a little concerned he could fall pray to a couple homers.

Las Vegas doesn’t expect the Rays to win and he’s pitching in Yankee Stadium, but Jake Odorizzi also has a decent opportunity to put up big strikeout numbers today.

Chase Whitley‘s on this list. I know. I’m sorry. But he only costs $4,100, he’s pitching for the team seventh-most likely to win today and the Rays have struck out the fourth-most in MLB this season. Whitley is risky like Montero, probably with less upside, but also with $2,400 less salary. And Montero was already a value.

Cash game (safe) pitcher rankings

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Tyson Ross SDP HOU 9200 14 5 1 7 9 9 2 7.00 4.00 6.71
2 Sonny Gray OAK LAA 8500 2 27 18 5 5 5 13 8.60 11.50 10.71
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD SFG 12400 4 15 16 1 1 1 23 9.00 8.50 8.71
4 Johnny Cueto CIN MIL 10400 13 13 6 4 2 2 26 9.80 5.00 9.43
5 Julio Teheran ATL WAS 8700 21 21 3 6 3 6 19 10.40 4.50 11.29
6 Clay Buchholz BOS TOR 6600 8 28 12 18 13 15 5 10.60 15.00 14.14
7 Michael Wacha STL PHI 8300 3 2 25 11 14 4 17 12.60 18.00 10.86
8 Travis Wood CHC PIT 6200 11 22 9 22 22 13 12 13.40 15.50 15.86
9 Jeff Locke PIT CHC 6000 20 14 8 20 11 18 12 13.80 14.00 14.71
10 Anibal Sanchez DET MIN 7700 1 25 14 14 23 12 21 14.20 14.00 15.71

Like I said a few paragraphs ago, I’m not playing in many cash games this baseball season. But if I was, I’d probably stick to the players in that top four — Ross, Kershaw, Cueto and Sonny Gray. My initial lineup today had Ross and Gray paired together. They seem like obvious choices, which probably makes them bad tournament options and good cash game options.

Overall pitcher rankings for Tuesday, April 28

PITCHER Tm Opp DK W woba K/O K/P IP WHIP Park Xav Up AVG
1 Tyson Ross SDP HOU 9200 14 5 1 7 9 9 2 6.86 4.00 6.71
2 Clayton Kershaw LAD SFG 12400 4 15 16 1 1 1 23 8.86 8.50 8.71
3 Johnny Cueto CIN MIL 10400 13 13 6 4 2 2 26 9.61 5.00 9.43
4 Sonny Gray OAK LAA 8500 2 27 18 5 5 5 13 9.66 11.50 10.71
5 Michael Wacha STL PHI 8300 3 2 25 11 14 4 17 11.73 18.00 10.86
6 Julio Teheran ATL WAS 8700 21 21 3 6 3 6 19 10.84 4.50 11.29
7 Drew Hutchison TOR BOS 6700 23 12 17 10 19 11 5 14.43 13.50 13.86
8 Clay Buchholz BOS TOR 6600 8 28 12 18 13 15 5 12.37 15.00 14.14
9 R. Hernandez HOU SDP 5100 17 1 5 26 24 24 2 14.27 15.50 14.14
10 Jeff Locke PIT CHC 6000 20 14 8 20 11 18 12 14.26 14.00 14.71
11 Jake Odorizzi TBR NYY 7300 25 10 7 9 16 8 29 15.93 8.00 14.86
12 Kyle Lohse MIL CIN 7000 18 4 10 23 7 17 26 15.30 16.50 15.00
13 Trevor Bauer CLE KCR 8000 5 11 30 8 15 22 18 16.79 19.00 15.57
14 Anibal Sanchez DET MIN 7700 1 25 14 14 23 12 21 14.96 14.00 15.71
15 Travis Wood CHC PIT 6200 11 22 9 22 22 13 12 14.63 15.50 15.86
16 M. Bumgarner SFG LAD 10000 28 26 24 3 6 3 23 16.47 13.50 16.14
17 Chase Whitley NYY TBR 4100 7 7 4 21 20 26 29 16.74 12.50 16.29
18 David Phelps MIA NYM 4400 12 8 27 15 26 19 7 17.24 21.00 16.29
19 Rafael Montero NYM MIA 6500 19 16 2 13 29 29 7 16.81 7.50 16.43
20 Jered Weaver LAA OAK 7500 29 24 23 12 10 7 13 16.63 17.50 16.86
21 Ross Detwiler TEX SEA 4000 15 3 20 27 25 23 15 18.94 23.50 18.29
22 J.A. Happ SEA TEX 6300 16 19 22 19 21 21 15 19.00 20.50 19.00
23 Kyle Kendrick COL ARI 4300 22 9 15 25 12 25 27 19.74 20.00 19.29
24 Jeremy Guthrie KCR CLE 5500 26 21 28 24 8 16 18 19.67 26.00 20.14
25 Archie Bradley ARI COL 6100 9 23 21 17 18 28 27 20.51 19.00 20.43
26 S.Gonzalez PHI STL 4800 27 18 26 28 17 14 17 20.60 27.00 21.00
27 Mike Pelfrey MIN DET 4200 30 30 11 29 28 27 21 24.27 20.00 25.14
28 Jeff Samardzija CWS BAL 8900 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99.00 99.00 99.00
29 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL CWS 6200 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99.00 99.00 99.00
30 A.J. Cole WAS ATL 20000 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99.00 99.00 99.00

I really like how different the rankings are right now. I’m pretty confident these are the formulas we’ll stick with for the foreseeable future. If it does pretty well again today I’m going to start working on ways to pick better hitters.

Good luck today and every day.





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