Some interesting matchups and information today.
Let’s not dawdle. First pitch is in less than an hour.
We’ll start with hitters again.
I’ve been going over a value play or two every day, recently. I have one that’s a must play today: Anthony Gose is batting leadoff again for the Tigers today and his bat is scorching hot — two doubles, a triple, a homer, a stolen base, 5 RBIs and 6 runs with a .450 average hot. His salary is still only $3,500 but probably should be $5,500. The Tigers are one of the teams starting early, so you’ll need to get a lineup together now if you want to take advantage.
I highly recommend it.
Almost forgot one thing. Rotogrinders has a home run predictability chart. I’m not sure how effective it is at predicting taters, but one of the factors they use is pitcher home run probability. I thought it might be interesting to put these guys out here. Let’s see if they give up a homer today: Rubby de la Rosa, Trevor May, Shelby Miller, Matt Shoemaker, Jake Odorizzi and Scott Kazmir.
While doing my stacks research, I looked at some other factors, namely wOBA expectations sorted a number of ways. But the teams I came up with — Toronto, Minnesota, Kansas City, Los Angeles Angels, Colorado and Houston — are mostly listed in my stacking chart anyway.
“Stacking” a team usually means starting three, four or five of the top batters from a team. In some cases, stacking the best batters from one game is a good call. Today there are no games with an over/under above 8.5, so that method might not be best today.
Most stackable lineups for Monday, April 13
Daily fantasy baseball is won and lost on the pitching mound. An average pitcher can net you 20 points, a below average pitcher can cost you -15 points. A great pitcher can flat out win your contest for you with a no-hitter.
Today’s pitching field is interesting. There are no salaries over $9,500 and a couple decent values to consider in your tournament lineups.
Players with a high win probability — today Jacob deGrom, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Cashner — are relatively safe picks. Meanwhile players with a high strikeout average facing a team that has K’d a lot this season — Scott Kazmir and Jake Odorizzi today — should be considered in tournaments.
But sometimes those factors come together to make almost must-start pitchers. That’s where I think Jon Lester, deGrom, Cashner and Matt Shoemaker fit in today and can be considered in all formats.
There are a couple interesting contrarian plays out there today too. Rubby de la Rosa is not a player I want to hang much money on, but he’s pitching at Petco against the Padres who have struck out the third most of any team this season. Jordan Zimmerman, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello have similar park/opponent strikeout profiles today against the Red Sox, Pirates and Nationals, respectively.
As always, contrarian plays come with some risk — de la Rosa’s Diamondbacks rank 26th of 28 teams in win probability today and Sanchez and Porcello have horrible wOBA matchups — but risk wins tournaments.
If you want to get really super risky today, there are three pitchers under $5,000. As I said above, a pitcher who gets lit up can cost you serious negative points. Colorado’s Eddie Butler and San Francisco’s Chris Heston are pitching against each other at AT&T Park in San Francisco, the best pitcher’s park in the majors. Texas’ Ross Detwhiler costs just $4,300, but I couldn’t find anything that makes him startable other than the price.
Those kinds of plays typically don’t work out so well.
Here is the full list of pitcher rankings:
Pitchers to start for Monday, April 13
|5||R. De La Rosa||ARI||SDP||$6,400||26||1||3||18||2||10.00|
Good luck today and every day.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: EP has been playing fantasy sports since 1996. He is among the top third of overall players at RotoGrinders.com. He won two NBA GPPs this season, his first dedicating significant time to NBA lineups, and is among the top 32% of hockey players. He’ll use the same methods in an attempt to crack an MLB tournament in 2015.