There are a couple good pitching values out there for today’s games.
That should free some cap space to run big-name bats. All 30 teams are in play. This should be fun.
Let’s start with pitchers.
Pitchers are the most important part, especially at Draft Kings. A great game, like Chris Archer yesterday, can yield almost 40 points. A bad game can cost you -15 points. The following chart is meant to point you to the players more likely to give you an Archer-typer performance.
We look at win probability, as determined by Las Vegas betting odds, weighted on-base-average, pitcher strikeout potential, opponent strikeout potential and park factors.
It’s never a bad strategy to pay for studs like Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. They are expensive, but they get they are the most likely to get the job done for you.
However, tonight I’ll be skipping Kershaw. While I still expect him to win in dominant fashion, some of the factors we use indicate he may not be dominant enough to be worth his $12,600 price. Scherzer appears to be a no-doubt start, but after those two, I’m looking at sleeper plays.
The best value plays on the board, factoring average rank and price compared to Kershaw’s top dollar, are Jake Peavy, at $8,200 and Nate Karns at $5,900. Obviously, Karns’ low, low price makes him a value but the Yankees have been pretty bad. I’ll rock a lineup with Peavy and Karns just to get some big bats in the lineup. Some day age will catch up to Bartolo Colon, but the statistics indicate not this day.
Pitcher rankings for Friday, April 17
Hitters for Friday, April 17
There are only two games with an over/under of 8 and a half runs or more — Houston at Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore at Boston. Both games are at top-6 pitcher parks.
All batters from those games should be a consideration and starting pitchers from those games is risky.
My stack recommendations: The Angels against Roberto Hernandez, the Blue Jays vs. Julio Teheran at the Rogers Center and the Dodgers against Kyle Kendrick in LA.
Other hitters to consider:
I’m not a huge fan of batter vs. pitcher statistics, but there are two with good numbers and at least 25 bats against their opponent tonight. Jon Jay has three home runs and is hitting .444 in 27 at-bats against Johnny Cueto and Trevor Plouffe is hitting .360 with two homers in 25 at-bats against Corey Kluber.
Outfielders Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz are expensive, but they’re tearing the cover off the ball. Joey Votto has been streaking of late as well.
Here are some other players — both expensive players and values — I have a lot of exposure to tonight:
C Steven Vogt, 1B Mark Canha, 2B Devon Travis, 2B/SS Tim Beckham, 3B, Josh Donaldson, OF Jose Bautista, OF Andrew McCutchen, OF Cameron Maybin.
Good luck tonight and every night.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: EP has been playing fantasy sports since 1996. He is among the top third of overall players at RotoGrinders.com. He won two NBA GPPs this season, his first dedicating significant time to NBA lineups, and is among the top 32% of hockey players. He’ll use the same methods in an attempt to crack an MLB tournament in 2015.