After leaving you out to dry yesterday, I laced up my effort boots today and did some extra research.
Let’s start with games to stack. There is a lineup-building method that says if you play the best performers from a team that scores 120 points or goes into overtime, that it will increase your chances of winning.
There are two games with high-stackability tonight: Golden State-Denver and Sacramento-Philadelphia.
Golden State was slated to win by 6.5 in the highest-scoring game of the night, according to Las Vegas. But that was before the Warriors announced they would rest most of their starters. That means GS backups are going to get starting minutes and their remaining starters are going to get a boatload more opportunities. Meanwhile, the Nuggets get to face a mostly second-string defense.
The Philadelphia 76ers are poor defensively (Nerlens Noel is the exception, obviously), but Vegas had the under/over on this game at 207 with the Kings favored by 4 on the road. This is expected to be one of the fastest-paced games of the night, meaning more scoring opportunities for both teams.
Games to avoid: Chicago-Charlotte, Orlando-Boston.
I don’t feel like it’s a good bet to rule out any players regardless of poor over/unders or lopsided scores. You just have to go into the lineup-building process knowing that these games are going to be slower paced and there will be fewer points (and 3-pointers, and assists).
With so many games on the board tonight, it feels like there is value and top plays around every turn. I’m going to give you the players I’ll be using most tonight, but if you see something that encourages you to go another direction you very well could be right. If you veered off in the right direction, please be sure to post your results and lineup in the comments after the games are over.
I want to get better and I want you to get better. Sharing information, even hunches, is how we do that.
As always, check player news and lineups before tipoff. You’re not going to win a big-field tournament with a zero on your board.
Draft Kings NBA top plays for Friday, March 13
Russell Westbrook, $12,500 — The Timberwolves are better at defending point guards since Ricky Rubio (another solid PG option tonight with a good matchup) returned, however, they’re still allowing 46.11 fantasy points per game to the position. The best player on the planet right now should be able to reach value despite his absurd salary.
Shaun Livingston, $4,100 — There are a lot of value options at PG today, but I’m using Livingston the most. He has a 40-point game in his last 10 and gets to start in place of Steph Curry tonight with a whole bunch of other second-stringers. He’ll likely be one of the best scoring options on a team expected to score the most points tonight.
Ty Lawson, $6,600 — I like Lawson a lot, leading the Nuggets in the other side of that high-scoring affair with the Warriors. Lawson, and the people he’s passing to, also get to face a lot of second-string defense.
Also consider: Isaiah Canaan, $4,600, Ish Smith, $5,000, Kemba Walker, $8,000 and Mo Williams, $7,600
Ben McLemore, $4,200 — Has averaged 28 fantasy points and 38 minutes in his last three games. He gets the 76ers defense, which has allowed the second most fantasy points to shooting guards this season, in one of the highest-scoring, fastest paced games of the night.
Eric Bledsoe, $8,100 — With PG Brandon Knight out, Bledsoe could approach 40 minutes and 50+ fantasy points.
Will Barton, $4,300 — My early lineups were almost all Barton. He gets that second-string defense I’ve been talking about, plus he averaged 31 fantasy points and 33 minutes in the last two games. He’s been getting about 30 minutes regularly for a while now.
Also consider: Justin Holiday, $3,000, Kyle Korver, $5,000, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, $4,200, Dwayne Wade, $7,200, Gerald Henderson, $5,300
Demarre Carroll, $5,300 — I don’t feel good about having a lot of Demarre Carroll in my lineups, but if you feel good about every play in your lineup you’r e probably not going to win a GPP. Carroll has several 30-fantasy-point games in his last 10. He gets the Phoenix defense, which has allowed the second most fantasy points to SFs this season and the Hawks are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams tonight.
Chandler Parsons, $5,900 — Where I’m not going Carroll, I’m going Parsons. He’s slightly more expensive, with a slightly better matchup. He hasn’t scored 30 points since Feb. 9, but he missed some time with injury, which means his price is also depressed, making him a decent value.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, $5,900 — Charlotte will be without Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller, which means there’ll be more minutes and points to go around. Kidd-Gilchrist scored 23 real points with nine rebounds and more than 42 fantasy points his last game.
Also consider: Rudy Gay, $7,600, Tobias Harris, $6,700, Luol Deng, $5,300, Tony Snell, $4,300, Harrison Barnes, $4,100, Matt Barnes, $4,700.
David Lee, $3,900 — This is the position that’s going to make or break fantasy lineups tonight. Lee is the best value play of the night. He’ll start for the Warriors. If he also gets starters minutes, he could post 30 points. He gets the best or second best matchup whether he lays power forward or small forward tonight.
Draymond Green, $7,200 — Green is one starting star the Warriors are not benching tonight. He could have a huge game, or could be the primary focus of the Nuggets defense. Either way, he gets the same excellent matchup as Lee. He almost feels like a must-start to me. I probably have him in too many lineups.
LaMarcus Aldridge, $9,000 — Aldridge always has a chance to score 25 and pull down 25 rebounds. Tonight he gets the Pistons defense, which has allowed the third most fantasy points to centers this season and the fifth-most in the last three weeks.
Nerlens Noel, $6,800 — When Noel scores points to go along with his usually full stat sheet he can pile up the fantasy points. He has a chance to do something big in this fast-paced matchup against the Kings.
Nikola Mirotic, $6,800 — Mirotic’s price has climbed quite a bit, but he’s still scoring 30 fantasy points per game and tonight he faces a Charlotte front court at far less than 100%.
Marvin Williams, $4,000 — Williams has only played 30 minutes once in his last 10 games, but that time and every time he’s come close he’s come close to or surpassed 30 fantasy points. With both Cody Zeller and Al Jefferson ailing, Williams could see 30+ minutes.
Also consider: Serge Ibaka, $7,700, Greg Monroe, $7,800, Paul Millsap, $7,500, Brandon Bass, $5,200, Jae Crowder, $4,900
Robin Lopez, $5,000 — I have a pretty diverse collection of centers starting in my lineups tonight. Lopez tops this list here because of his price and because he faces the Pistons, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to centers this season. Lopez has scored 30 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Nikola Vucevic, $8,000 — Because of all the value I ended up with enough cash to pay up for Vucevic in a couple lineups. It’s not bad when you can get a double-double machine for this price, especially when he’s facing the Celtics, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers in the last three weeks.
Enes Kanter, $5,900 — Kanter has three 30-point games among his last 10 and faces the Timberwolves, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
DeMarcus Cousins, $9,500 — Cousins is questionable with an ankle injury. He’s probably going to play, but if I was a coach and I was going to rest a starter I’d rest them against the 76ers. If he plays, Cousins could have a monster game.
Also consider: DeAndre Jordan, $8,900, Al Horford, $7,100, Andre Drummond, $8,000, Joakim Noah, $6,700, Spencer Hawes, $3,800
Good luck tonight and every night.