Yesterday’s picks were a bit of a disaster. My late NBA $2K (late) lineup hit for $5, but my “safe” cash game plays were a disaster — other than Mike Conley, of course.
From now on, if I tell you a player is safe, you put your hand up to the screen, cover the name and scroll down to the next guy.
I read somebody complaining about today’s slate, about there not being much value to be had. There’s always value. We just have to pick (guess) which players are in the right situation. We need to put yesterday behind us and continue to make good decisions.
As always, check player news and lineups before rosters lock.
Draft Kings NBA top plays for Tuesday, March 10
Value play: Alexey Shved, $3,400 — Shved has averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game in his last six and has scored at least 28 points on two occasions over that stretch. So that’s an average of more than 6x value — an optimal target value — with the potential for 9x — a tournament winning value. Other value plays: Norris Cole, $3,000.
Mid-range play: Deron Williams, $5,800 — Facing New Orleans was already a decent play for point guards, but with Tyreke Evans out with an ankle injury, Williams almost becomes a must-play across the industry. He has 45-point upside. Other options: Jeremy Lin, $5,000, Jordan Clarkson, $5,000, Rajon Rondo, $6,400.
Elite play: Reggie Jackson, $7,000 — Other than at center, no team gives up as many points to a position as the Lakers give up to point guards.
Value play: Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, $4,100 or Wayne Ellington, $4,800 — On all of the statistics I’m checking these players are pretty similar and predicted to have similar FPs tonight. Pope’s a bit cheaper and the Lakers are a bit better matchup. Other options: Quincy Pondexter, $3,300
Mid-range play: Eric Gordon, $5,300 — The Nets have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. With Tyreke Evans out, there will be more fantasy statistics for Pelicans to gather, I’m expecting Gordon to pick up at least some of the point. Other options: Joe Johnson, $5,200 or J.R. Smith, $4,500
Elite play: Monta Ellis, $6,900 — Ellis has been below average for a few weeks now, but he scored 45 fantasy points against the Lakers in his last game and gets the Cavaliers, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season, tonight. I think he’ll score what we’d expect out of Oladipo — if Nikola Vucevic returns tonight as expected — at a $1,500 discount. Other options: Victor Oladipo, $8,400, DeMar DeRozen, $7,200.
Value play: Solomon Hill, $3,300 — I don’t often target Pacers players. They rank 24th in points scored and have given up the third-most points in the NBA this season. However, Hill is a starting SF getting close to 30 minutes a game at $3,300, averaging 29 minutes and 23 fantasy points per game in his last three. He scored 31.25 fantasy points March 6. He’s also facing Orlando tonight. No team has allowed more fantasy points to small forwards this season. Hill’s price — $1,000 less than anyone else I’d spend salary on tonight — is too good to not take a chance he’ll have a ++ game against the Magic. If C.J. Miles starts, we’ll probably want to shift away from Hill. Other options: Wesley Johnson, $4,300, James Johnson, $3,800, C.J. Miles, $4,200.
Mid-range play: Tobias Harris, $6,900 — Harris has one of the worst matchups of the night against the Pacers, but his ceiling/floor profiles are too good to ignore. If Nikola Vucevic is out, Harris should be in a lot of lineups tonight. If Vucevic plays, I’m going in another direction. Other options: Chandler Parsons, $5,500.
Elite play: LeBron James, $10,500 — James is a 70-burger waiting to happen against any NBA defense. He also hasn’t scored 40 fantasy points in consecutive games. That means some people are going to avoid him. Other options: Gordon Hayward, $7,500, Kawhi Leonard, $7,700
Value play: Tarik Black, $3,000, Carlos Boozer, $4,500, Ed Davis, $4,600 — These Lakers rotations are a mess. Jordan Hill (a C at Draft Kings) started in place of Boozer at PF last game. Tarik Black (a PF at Draft Kings) started at center. Boozer still got 25 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points. Davis got only 19 minutes but scored 28 fantasy points. Confused yet? Good. Avoid this situation unless one or more of these guys gets scratched tonight, then start whichever one you think might get the most minutes at PF or C. The Pistons have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the positions. I want to tell you to start Davis but he needs to get more minutes. If Patrick Patterson, $3,600, is starting for the Raptors, maybe you should start him instead.
Mid-range play: Dirk Nowitzki, $5,800 — I debated between Dirk or Tim Duncan for this spot. Duncan is an elite player in the twilight of his career, but he gets a tough matchup against Toronto. Dirk gets a decent matchup against the Cavaliers and is a virtual lock for 30 points with a lower ceiling. Other options: Tim Duncan, $6,500, David West, $5,600, Andrea Bargnani, $5,600.
Elite play: Anthony Davis, $10,700 — Brow’s price is going up after this game. With Tyreke Evans out, there should be a few more fantasy points for Davis to scoop up. The Nets have given up the third-most fantasy points to power forwards in the last three weeks. Batten down the hatches. Other options: Greg Monroe, $8,800, Derrick Favors, $7,400.
Value play: Roy Hibbert, $4,700 — Hibbert is questionable. It’ll be a shame if he wastes this opportunity against the Magic, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to centers this season. Last time Hibbert had a matchup this good, March 1 against the 76ers, he scored 47.25 fantasy points. Other options: Alexis Ajinca, $4,400.
Mid-range play: Jonas Valanciunas, $5,000 — Just $300 more than Hibbert, I considered adding Valanciunas in the value plays. He should reach value easily and has the best price-ceiling profile at this range. Other options: Tyson Chandler, $6,000, Brook Lopez, $6,100, Jordan Hill, $5,000.
Elite play: Andre Drummond, $7,900 — The Lakers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to centers and are generally just plain bad on defense. Unless this game gets out of hand, Drummond has an easy path to 50 fantasy points tonight. Other options: Nikola Vucevic, $8,300, if he plays, and Rudy Gobert, $7,500.
Good luck tonight and every night.