Draft strategy? Ninja Attack Plan is all you need
If you’ve been reading fantasy football sites online in recent weeks, I’m sure you’ve come across plenty of draft strategies. I’ve read posts about RB-RB drafts, and WR-WR drafts – in each case you choose two of the same position in the first two rounds no matter what.
I’ve also read up on the triplets strategy – get a QB, RB and WR in the first three rounds. There’s the starting lineup strategy – fill out your starters first, right down to the kicker and defense, ensuring a strong starting corps at the cost of depth. And let’s not forget the best player available strategy – pick the best player regardless of need.
That sums up most of the standard draft strategies out there. Each is beautiful in a perfect world, but flawed in reality.
The flaws
If you tell yourself to go WR-WR, but have a chance at Adrian Peterson, you’re foolish to follow your predetermined path.
Similarly, if the four sure-thing running backs are gone, I say pick an elite WR regardless of your RB-RB plan.
Finally, it has a name, the Ninja Attack Plan
I guess in some ways, I subscribe to a draft the best player available strategy, but with a twist. I’ve read about the zig-zag in other places, but I believe Chinstrap Ninjas have to be ready to avoid a zig, or zag very sharply depending on the situation.
Strike when your foes least expect it. That’s what Ninjas do. That’s how Ninjas win. Call it ep’s Ninja Attack Plan. The name’s a work in progress, but follow along anyway.
At it’s core, the strategy keeps you in charge the entire draft.
A perfect example of the Ninja Attack Plan played out during a deep 10-team marathon of a draft I participated in this weekend.
The Attack in practice
The first big strike came at the rounds 4-5 turn. Already having picked Adrian Peterson, Roddy White and Steve Smith in the first three rounds, I needed a second running back, a third wide receiver a flex player and a quarterback to round out the important parts of my starting lineup.
But instead of taking wide receiver from a quickly dwindling pool – everybody was worried about their three WR spots – I took Ronnie Brown and Brian Westbrook who were inexplicably available at 40 and 41. Conventional thinking would have had me picking RB-WR there.
Jump ahead to Round 8 where Matt Ryan was still available. He’s got the talent and weapons to climb the QB ladder this year. I already had Tony Romo, so picking another QB goes against virtually every strategy out there. But when my two TE targets – John Carlson and Owen Daniels – and two WR targets – Antonio Bryant and Donald Driver – were picked in the four picks directly ahead of me, I zagged hard right, choosing the last top-line QB on the board instead.
I knew that the next TEs I wanted had much less expensive average draft positions, so skip that. I also expect Felix Jones to significantly outperform his ADP this year, making him a better value than the overrated receivers that were left – guys like Devin Hester, Lance Moore, Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, so I again cut against the grain and went with an RB.
At some point, the talent corrects itself
In round 11, I finally caved and picked my WR 3, Derrick Mason. He’s old and boringly consistent. But he’s a steady starter, and that’s good when you’ve got a great, but inconsistent, Steve Smith lining up alongside him.
In round 12, Chris Henry and Josh Morgan – two more WR targets – were both picked ahead of me. Not to be thwarted, my picks were Visanthe Shiancoe and Rashard Mendenhall. Alas, Mendenhall was my seventh RB, putting me at the RB limit.
I still ended up with Patrick Crayton – he is Dallas’ No. 2 receiver, you can have your MIles Austin and your Sam Hurd – and Chaz Schilens – a recovering up and coming receiver on a team that’s going to have to throw the ball a lot – and Hakeem Nicks – a rookie who’s quickly proving he’s got a lot of talent and will demand some targets. Between those three receivers, Mason and whichever waiver wonder I pick up, I’ll be able to send a solid three out there every week and have strong depth at RB and QB.
Finally, a rule for all of us Ninjas
I could have reached for a Santana Moss or a Torry Holt a round early at different points, but then I would have been letting other owners dictate the draft to me.
I guess that’s it, if you want a rule, if you need a draft strategy, a way to sum up the Ninja Attack Plan, remember this:
Ninjas don’t get pushed around, they attack.
Never again say, “well he’s the only one left, I better get him.” Unless you really, really want that leftover table scrap of a tight end, zag and take your pick of talent from another position.
(Man, this part of my brain must have been waist deep in auction euphoria a few months ago when I blew a heap of salary cap on Marion Barber because he was the last one left.)
The comments are yours to fill with whatever you wish, but I wonder, what strategy do you employ on draft day?
How in the world is Westbrook still there at pick 40 and 41 is what I want to know? Westy is a no brainer there. Also glad to see you must like some of my dynasty league players in Morgan and Schilens ep. Mason was definitely a great pickup in round 11. He’s not flashy, but like you said extremely consistent. He should do a little more this year with Flacco’s second season and his shoulder feeling better.
Thanks for the comment, Sockonfl.
It was crazy getting Westbrook and Brown there. Even if it’s a three WR league, there’s no way those players should both be available at the Round 4 turn. The guy who sniped Jason Witten at 39 said he never expected me to take both RBs, so he figured he would get one after I took my RB-WR picks.
He went WR with his next pick and had to settle for Willie Parker instead.
Yeah, I hate to call a player like Mason a steal at any point in a draft, but considering the other talent that was available that’s what Mason was there. Fingers crossed you’re right about Flacco, too.
The cool thing about the plan is that, if they were both gone at that point, I could have chosen Dwayne Bowe and Jason Witten instead there and felt I was fine.
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