OK … before I get into my list, let me preface this by saying a few things:
1. If your team has a legit shot at winning this year, you probably should not trade any of the players on this list.
2. I am predicting that these players will suffer a loss in value in the coming years, not necessarily the coming season.
3. I am advocating the idea of selling these players high when their value is near their peak.
4. Trading these players will benefit your team if they are one of your lone studs, because you should be able to get some picks and up and comers in return for the top-flight talent.
1. Steven Jackson: In his past five seasons, he has averaged about 300 touches and he has been very productive. He started to show signs of breaking down last year with the injured back, although he is very tough and continued to play anyway.
But let’s be realistic, the Rams suck, they have no QB and they are going to ride Jackson into the ground. At 27 years old when the season starts, his time is running out. He most likely has 1-2 good years left before we could see an LT esque decline. His value should still be high right now, so the return for Jackson could still be worth trading.
2. Marion Barber: Turning 27 years old as the season starts and due to his punishing style of running, he has some serious tread on the tires. This may be the last year you can get any sort of return for him in trade. With Felix the Cat shining down the stretch last season and Tashard Choice showing he is more than capable to complement, there isn’t enough ball to go around.
Also with Romo and the passing game clicking, there is a good chance the rushes could be down and the Cowboys could go to the air more the coming season. I really don’t think Barber’s value will stay high, and I think he could be cut in the coming offseason, which could tick his value up slightly. Overall, I just don’t trust that he will stay healthy and with a deep draft for RBs, it might be worth unloading him for a late first round pick or early second round pick to get your hands on one of the rookie backs this year.
3. Randy Moss: When wide outs hit the wall they hit it hard, ask the owners of Terrell Owens. Moss has one more season with Tom Brady and then he will be a free agent and almost a foregone conclusion he will be on a new team next season. With the new team comes a ton of unknowns.
Moss is in a contract year, so he will most likely have a big year, but at the same time he might not be worth more than a WR2 after this coming season. He is a guy where if your team is close, I’d keep him and try to deal him next year, but if you’re not going to be in the running, then I would recommend moving him for some picks and a younger wide out.
4. Sidney Rice: It is not normal for me to recommend moving a young wide out, especially one that had such a breakout season. Rice is a tale of two quarterbacks … Pre-Favre (46rec, 573yards, 8tds) and Favre-era (77rec , 1200yards, 6tds).
Once old man river finally retires anything can happen. Will the Vikings get another aging quarterback or will they draft a young quarterback? No one knows.
I am pretty sure Rice continue to be a good receiver, but the dominate season he put up will likely not be repeated without Favre at the helm. Rice is still a solid young wide out, but I worry that he could be hurt significantly when Favre leaves the team. Although I struggle to figure out what fair value for Rice would be, but I can just say you will know it when you see it.
5. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown and Peyton Manning are the two reasons why Addai’s value will be all over the place. Brown will cut into his carries, receptions and touchdowns; Manning spreads the ball around too much (great for NFL, terrible for fantasy).
Kind of like Barber, Addai’s value is high right now, but I see his value falling during the season. While I know he will have a fairly consistent stream of points scored, I would much rather take a chance on one of the incoming rookie backs. I just have a hunch that Addai’s production will fall and maybe heading down the same path Dominic Rhodes did in Indy.
6. Michael Turner: Well he can’t catch and he broke down last season. He eclipsed the magic number of 370 carries in the prior season and then like clockwork he broke down. He has had nagging injuries.
Thankfully he was able to get 10 touchdowns last year to save some of his value for the owners that took him early in drafts. He then tried to tough it out at the end of the season and would go one carry and done or would just tease the fantasy owner into putting him in the lineup and then he would put up a zero. Do I think he can bounce back? … yes. But I think it’s a risky proposition, and if the price is right or you can find an owner that believes, you could get good value for him.
7. Brett Favre: He is old. There is no way he will repeat the numbers he put up. Greg Williams and the Saints D were one more drive away from ending two quarterback’s careers in one playoffs.
More importantly I doubt he plays more than one more season, so trading him to get something is better than just having a dead space on your team. If you have a chance to win the title, keep him and run with it. If you don’t have a shot, then you should try to move him for a pick and maybe a lower level player with some upside. This is just an example of dealing a player before they retire to avoid dead weight.
8. Matt Forte: Chester Taylor hurts his value, and I just don’t think he is that good. Sure he had a good season and can catch, but he doesn’t have breakaway speed and I will contest he couldn’t make a kid in a wheelchair miss.
With the thought of Mike Martz running the show, some people may go to great lengths to get a hold of players on the Bears so the value could be there. I am just not a believer in Forte, and if the receivers start to come through there could be a flurry of passes coming out of the windy city.
He is a young back so it might not be worth pulling the plug just yet, but again if the price is right, it might be worth moving him.
What are your opinions on this list? Which players are you considering trade-now candidates in dynasty football leagues?