Several weeks ago, I seemed to ruffle some feathers when suggesting that owners of Adrian Peterson in dynasty fantasy football leagues should consider trading him for maximum return value.
Again, I wasn’t saying that Peterson won’t be a solid fantasy option in 2010, just that he is in a position, especially now that Chester Taylor has moved on to greener, grassier stadiums, where he could start to see a statistical decline.
Now it is time to stoke the pot again. Perhaps not as controversial of a selection for my trade-now campaign, I still think it is time you seriously consider moving Reggie Wayne, who is coming off his best season since 2007. And here’s why:
First, Reggie Wayne’s statistics have been fairly inconsistent. He has scored double-digit TDs three times in his pro career, none of those seasons consecutively. His most in a single season was 12 in 2004, when he had 77 receptions for 1,210 yards.
Three years later, Wayne had his best season, catching a career-high 104 passes for a career-high 1,510 yards and 10 TDs.
Two years after that … last season … he had 95 catches for 1,243 yards and 10 TDs in 15 games.
Between each of those three elite campaigns, Wayne’s total yardage and touchdowns took significant hits. In 2008, even through a full 16-game schedule, Wayne saw a drop of 20 receptions and 400 yards and four touchdowns from his 2007 season.
What concerns me even more was his statistical roller coaster in 2009. Sure, his season-ending numbers were more than impressive. He had an outstanding start to the season, notching two games over more than 130 yards in the first three regular season contests of the year. He had five games during the regular season where he went for over 100 yards and scored in nine different games.
But look at the final six regular-season affairs. Outside of a 5-for-132 game against Jacksonville in Week 15, Wayne averaged just 3.8 receptions for 32.8 yards per game.
During this time, young receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged as legitimate threats in the passing game. Combined with tight end Dallas Clark, the two formed reliable options for Peyton Manning to spread the ball to.
In 2010, Reggie Wayne will be 32 years old and will find himself on a roster with multiple receivers that Manning has grown accustomed to … and the talented Anthony Gonzalez figures to be a part of the equation, too.
While I don’t expect Reggie Wayne to fall off the fantasy football table in 2010, ala previous teammate Marvin Harrison, I do expect his career pattern of peaks and valleys to continue, especially with the weapons surrounding him in that offense. Consider Wayne a sell high candidate in dynasty circles, and see if you can snag a younger player with a higher ceiling, such as Roddy White or Miles Austin while improving yourself elsewhere in your starting lineup.
What is your opinion on Wayne and his long-term value? We’d love to hear your thoughts in our comments section below.