Yep, the projections are here. Late this week, I know. And I don’t have time to put together full posts for each position again.
You get this compact look at all of the positions. Like last week, I haven’t made any adjustments based on receiver-type matchups yet. These are almost raw from the projection machine (a Google Docs spreadsheet). I did modify some of the totals to reflect changes in playing time and expected roles.
For instance, with Ryan Mathews back Branden Oliver probably takes over the Danny Woodhead role this week.
With the bits and bobs out of the way, let’s talk some Week 11 strategy.
If you haven’t looked at the offense vs. defense averages yet, please do. I go into some detail about the Las Vegas factor and about how it says this could be one insane week in the NFL for fantasy players.
I’m going to stay on Las Vegas, but I’m not going to talk any more about the Las Vegas factor. That was yesterday. We’re here today trying to figure out lineups. That means you need help picking players, not discussing which teams might have big weeks.
Head fake. We’re still going to talk about teams because we need to throw away our biases, cover up those names we all know and love and make the tough decisions.
You can use these projections and the Las Vegas factor to get ahead, but I think those things can be even more helpful when we take into account one more major factor: Home field advantage. This is especially important for teams that play on turf who may be on the road playing on grass.
Speedy players don’t get slower when they run on plastic grass.
Here are some big takeaways to remember on the daily fantasy scene. I think I talked about them last week, but they need to be repeated. They helped me win 17-of-18 head-to-head games at Draft Kings and to cash (+$4 hype!) in a FanDuel tournament and a handful of quarter arcades at Draft Kings:
1. Pay for running backs and team defenses expected to win big at home.
2. It’s easier for a quarterback to pass at home without hostile fans and other elements.
3. Quarterbacks who are home underdogs in potential blowouts are prime candidates for amassing garbage-time stats.
Oh, and, yes, I know Mark Ingram is our No. 1 running back this week.
Week 11 early boom or bust projections for 2014 fantasy football: