2016 Draft Kit

Early boom or bust week 10 projections

Sorry guys, I don’t have time to get you individual posts by position before the early game this week.

It has been a brutal week. I fell asleep twice this week compiling projections after work. And I have to be to work in just a few minutes today.

Below you’ll find the early projections for all players. Just click on the tab at the bottom of the listing to flip between positions.

A warning: These projections haven’t been adjusted in any other way other than for current usage — for instance, I bumped A.J. Green‘s stats and redistributed Giovani Bernard‘s as one is back from an injury and the other will likely be out.

I haven’t even looked at matchups by receiver type yet. You’ll want to look into that yourself if your lineup locks tonight. Compare these projections with the rankings at Fantasy Pros or somewhere else reliable.

These will update as I make changes later in the week. And I’ll get updated projections posts by position before Sunday kickoff.

With all that disclaimer stuff out of the way, let’s talk briefly about me. No, I’m not trying to be a dirt bag, it’s just that I finished 1,856th out of 73,186 teams in Draft Kings Millionaire Maker tournament last week. That put me in the top 2 percent of the tournament. Which is pretty darn good.

The crazy thing is that I was too busy to do ALL of the research I normally do last week. I only relied on my own research. I usually read stuff from a lot of other experts, listen to podcasts and watch videos. In the past all of those things have helped me have success. But I haven’t finished this well in the MM yet.

I did that well even thought I got duds from Colin Kaepernick, Michael Floyd and Julius Thomas.

I’m also not here to second-guess those choices. One of the things I keep going back to is the sentence: Decision process matters more than analysis. I might not have even written down that line while doing fantasy football research. It could have been any number of things. But it applies here. We’re dealing with variance and probabilities here. Rankings and projections are guides.

I stand by my process and will delve a little deeper into that this week(end).

First, here are a few quick rules that are probably more important when building daily fantasy lineups than the projections you are about to read:

  1. Start players who are at home who either have a good matchup or who are expected to win big. This especially counts for running backs and defenses. (RotoGrinders pro Al Smizzle mentioned the home-fave running backs/defenses thing in an RG video earlier this season)
  2. Pick kickers and defense for teams expected to score a lot of points. (I think Jonathan Bales is the one who really pushed this one)
  3. Quarterbacks who are underdogs playing at home can provide a huge advantage. (Another gem from Jonathan Bales, I believe)
  4. If you’re not sure about a player, do some more research. If you’re still not sure after that, do not start him. If you’re reading Chinstrap Ninjas, it means you’ve probably been playing fantasy football for a long time. Trust your gut. If you start him and he flops, you’ll beat yourself up for days.
  5. Don’t go too all-in on one player. Diversify. No matter how great the matchup and the talent, you’re not ever going to be 100 percent correct 100 percent of the time. Not just because you are a human who makes mistakes, but because there will be 22 people on the football field. Any one could make a mistake or a big play that changes a game script.

I’m going to claim those last two, but they are informed by Smizzle, Bales, Adam Levitan, C.D. Carter, Josh Moore, etc. Pretty much everyone I follow on Twitter. You follow them too, right? Go. Now. Follow.

OK. Let’s get these early projections out of the way. I have 2 minutes to set my lineups, get a shower and get to work.

Plenty of time.

Good luck this week, Ninjas. Win a million.

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