2016 Draft Kit

Early fantasy football ADP Top 150: Do not draft Trent Richardson sixth overall (No. 1-25)

Early ADPs at Mock Draft Central (after 56 qualifying drafts since June 18) show Cleveland Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson being drafted sixth overall.

I understand the urge to be the fantasy owner who can say they drafted Trent Richardson, but this selection makes little sense. Richardson, or any fantasy rookie, should not be drafted in the first round unless the first round is actually the fifth round or 11th round or whatever in a dynasty/keeper league.

According to the same data, the latest Richardson was chosen was 10th overall, putting him ahead of Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees and every wide receiver not named Calvin Johnson, let alone players like Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte.

As I sat dumbfounded looking at the list, I tried to put myself in the place of the owners drafting. I’m certain most leagues drafting now are keeper or dynasty leagues. Even still, I can’t rationalize picking Richardson that high. The rest of the ADP is not full of rookies, so I don’t think it was skewed by a large amount of dynasty/keeper weirdness either.

Richardson is going to face 10-man fronts in Cleveland, when Montario Hardesty isn’t facing 10-man fronts. I know that sounds a little crazy. You don’t draft a Trent Richardson in the first round to be a time-share back, but at this point Richardson hasn’t faced an NFL defense or run behind an NFL line. In college, he had the opportunity to play on a championship-winning, defense-focused team that gave him 540 rushes in three years, including 283 last year.

The last time the Browns gave a running back that many carries it was 2007, Justin Timberlake’s SexyBack was probably your summer jam and Jamal Lewis, one of the most productive workhorse running backs in NFL history, was toting the rock in Cleveland. Peyton Hillis did rush 270 times in 2010, but that was during a career year that saw him on the cover of Madden the following year.

Last year, only four NFL running backs carried the ball in 16 games as many times as Richardson did in 13 games. Only one of those players, Maurice Jones-Drew, played on a team that missed the playoffs.

I’m not saying Richardson is a bad pick, he’s a great upside talent pick if you get him at the right spot. I’m a big fan of zigging when other owners zag. Despite the last 400 words, I’m also a fan of reaching a little for a player you want. But don’t pick Trent Richardson sixth overall, at least not if you’re drafting before he even has a preseason carry under his belt.

The rest of the ADP top 25 as of July 2, 2012:

  1. Arian Foster, HOU
  2. LeSean McCoy, PHI
  3. Ray Rice, BAL
  4. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
  5. Ryan Mathews, SD
  6. Trent Richardson, CLE
  7. Chris Johnson, TEN
  8. Aaron Rodgers, GB
  9. Calvin Johnson, DET
  10. DeMarco Murray, DAL
  11. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
  12. Adrian Peterson, MIN
  13. Drew Brees, NO
  14. Darren McFadden, OAK
  15. Jamaal Charles, KC
  16. Matt Forte, CHI
  17. Cam Newton, CAR
  18. Tom Brady, NE
  19. Michael Turner, ATL
  20. A.J. Green, CIN
  21. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
  22. Doug Martin, TB
  23. Frank Gore, SF
  24. Victor Cruz, NYG
  25. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG

6 Responses to “Early fantasy football ADP Top 150: Do not draft Trent Richardson sixth overall (No. 1-25)”

  1. MrTibbs25

    If my fantasy drafts look anything like this, it’s going to be a cery good year!

  2. Sam Davis

    Where are my Chinstrap dogs at?

  3. ep

    @Sam Davis: I’m here, just fighting a lot of battles on other fronts. I have a couple days off from work coming up. I hope to get some stuff out there this weekend or next week.

    @MrTibbs25: Yeah, I’m sure (I hope) it has changed since I wrote it. Still, I listened to a podcast on my way to work today with some dude telling his listeners that Trent Richardson is a first-rounder. Richardson could be good and I’d draft him as a value pick, but in that offense he’ll have to be a once-in-a-generation-caliber back to put up numbers that would make him a better pick than Brees, McFadden, Charles, etc.

  4. Sam Davis

    I just paypaled you a bigmac combo. I hope that its sustenance will inspire you.

  5. Sockonfl

    Thanks Sam and it is greatly appreciated. It helps pay the site hosting fee. Hoping to get some content up myself soon too.

  6. ep

    @Sam Davis: Thanks. As Sockonfl said, it helps pay our fees.

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