Our boom-or-bust rankings return for Week 14.
I’ve spent a lot of time talking this week about the fantasy playoffs. I hope these rankings help you win your opener. In daily fantasy, last week was a good week across the industry for me. I lost a couple bucks at FanDuel, but made up for it with gains at both Draft Kings and Yahoo.
This week is shaping up to be awesome in both season-long and daily fantasy with some really weird/interesting matchups and Las Vegas predictions.
I was only going to throw a couple .25-cent lineups into the daily fantasy ring tonight, but then I saw David Johnson‘s salary is still unbelievably low at Draft Kings and at FanDuel. So I went a little bigger than expected. He’s a top-2 value at RB this week at Draft Kings and the top RB value at FanDuel.
It’s also worth noting that Draft Kings’ Millionaire Maker is just $3 to enter this week — you could turn $3 into $1 million. So I wouldn’t go too crazy in the Thursday slate and save a few singles to throw at that thing. It’s a pretty incredible opportunity. I already reserved two lineups. I’ll probably have one or two more. I hope to write up a special article, like I did for Thanksgiving, just on this opportunity.
It’s like playing the lottery, only with research and metagame knowledge you can exponentially improve your chances of cashing and/or winning. I only play a few small games and I withdraw cash when my winnings get too high, but I’ve profited 600% this season, which is pretty good. I haven’t played many Milli-makers so far this season, but I have to take a shot this week.
If you haven’t signed up for Draft Kings yet, consider this pretty sweet deal. If you sign up by using my personal affiliate link between now and Dec. 14 you get $25 Draft Kings bucks and I get $25 Draft Kings bucks to use in contests on the site. You can also click this link to help out Chinstrap Ninjas we get a few fractions of a cent when people click and a few cents when people sign up and deposit through that link, but there’s no $25 bonus for either of us there.
Thanks for considering and sorry for the sales pitch (even though it’s a pretty good deal).
As always check late NFL news at a site like Rotoworld to make sure games are being played and players are in lineups.
Our rankings will be updated early Sunday morning and don’t always reflect final starting lineups. I went over the biggest matchups in our projected scores/Las Vegas column. When push comes to shove, I construct daily fantasy rosters based more on the research done for that column than these rankings.
We use composite odds and over/unders from Vegas Insider to generate the projected scores. I reference Defense-adjusted Value Over Average a lot, it is a Football Outsiders’ metric which can be a better predictor of future success than fantasy points allowed. All team rankings and yards allowed to receivers are referenced from Football Outsiders’ Defense Efficiency page. If I reference fantasy points allowed, I’m likely referring to the excellent charts produced by FFToday. These rankings also factor in the Expert Consensus Rankings at Fantasy Pros.
Daily fantasy: Draft Kings values | FanDuel values
Week 14 early rankings
Use the tabs at the bottom to cycle through positions. Use the arrows at bottom right to find more positions.
Early rankings notes
Judging by our search results, you want boom-or-bust, and our formula obliged again this week.
How about Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick in the top-7, ahead of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger?
Will every one of those sleeper quarterbacks outplay every one of those studs? No. Well, at least it’s unlikely. They do, however, have insanely great matchups/opportunities, while those other guys may have it a little tougher than usual.
Draft Kings’ Adam Levitan retweeted Rotoworld’s Evan Silva earlier today, who explained that Cincinnati’s secondary is banged up so they’re going to have even more trouble defending Pittsburgh’s elite corps of wide receivers. I suspect Roethlisberger’s ranking will climb by the time we updated on Sunday.
These aren’t super boom-or-busty, really. David Johnson is a bit higher than the experts at Fantasy Pros, but they have him sixth. We have him first. If you look at recent performances, the Vikings seem vulnerable to the run. Johnson has super fresh legs and should get plenty of work, at home, in a game his team is expected to win by more than a touchdown.
If we can talk about Johnson as a boom/bust play at second, I guess we can talk about Devonta Freeman being so low at sixth. I hope he finishes with a massive week because he’s going for one of my season-long teams that has a real shot at winning a championship. However, the Falcons recent performance has me concerned that he won’t go bananas. He’ll still be good, maybe even great, but he doesn’t have near the upside of the guys ahead of him on the list.
Danny Amendola, Martavis Bryant and Jarvis Landry inside the top-10 are the real head-turners on this list. The rest of the industry has them around top-15ish.
Even though it’s not a great matchup for Amendola, the decimated receiving corps in New England means he’ll probably get as many targets as he can handle and he usually catches most of his targets. Bryant has an opportunity to have a big day against the aforementioned weakened Bengals secondary which will have it’s hands full just trying to slow down Antonio Brown. Landry is a PPR beast and the top receiving option for Ryan Tannehill in a game that could shoot out.
Julio Jones at 15th, while the rest of the industry has him at sixth is also a head-turner. Just like with Freeman, I just don’t trust the Falcons offense to go ballistic like it was before Freeman’s injury. You’re not going to bench Jones in your season-long league regardless of these rankings, but I’m not sure he can carry your team with a 40-burger this week either.
Straight up boring compared to the rest of the rankings. We’re pretty much following the rules here. I guess Scott Chandler at third while he ranks sixth at Fantasy Pros is something. But I don’t think a ton of people are surprised by it. He’s a virtual lock for a touchdown as Brady’s top TE target.
You could also argue we have Austin Seferian-Jenkins too high and Tyler Eifert too low. It’s a bad matchup for Eifert, but like I said in the projected scores column, if Dalton is going to have a day, I suspect Eifert will get in the end zone. Just like with Julio above, I’m not sure he has the upside we expect out of him this week.
Meanwhile, I think ASJ has quite a bit of upside, playing a position Jameis Winston has targeted a lot this season against a defense that hasn’t stopped said position a lot this season.