On the verge of 40/40 and elite status, Grady Sizemore pulled up lame and lamer. He had two surgeries at the end of the season last year — one on a bum elbow and the other on his lower abdomen.
Fantasy owners probably won’t bestow such high praise in 2010. The Cleveland Indians outfielder is still being drafted in the third round (ADP around 26), but that’s not not the draft slot for a potential 40/40 player either.
Sizemore will turn 28 on Aug. 2, so he is still just entering his prime. Don’t doubt that elbow and hernia issues were the cause of his down 2009 (73/18/64/13/.248 in 436 at-bats). Your question should be about future health.
The company crystal ball is missing, so let’s look at previous performance. In Sizemore’s previous four seasons — he was a rookie five years ago — he had at least 628 at-bats and missed no more than five games.
He’s already resumed some baseball activities and will be at full strength for spring training, so expect a return to health and to production.
Sizemore’s batting average on balls in play in 2009 was more than 40 points off his career mark and his OPS was the lowest since that rookie campaign in 2004.
Expect all those numbers to correct themselves. Can we expect him to run at 40/40? Probably not, but he does have a 30-30 season under his belt and I wouldn’t put that past him.
When drafting, take him in the third round and expect a 100/25/75/30/.270 line.
That’s his baseline. If he gets hurt again, he’ll lose some numbers. If he’s back — really back — he could blow them up. I’m totally buying the bounce back.
What do you think? Is Sizemore a good risk or a bad risk? Let us know in the comments.