.Fantasy football 2011 | Week 1 Quarterback projections

Not a lot of time today folks. Many of the Ninjas are based in northeastern-central Pennsylvania. The tiny borough/town I work in was actually discussed in some detail on the weather channel last night because of the ridiculous amount of rain we received from what was once Tropical Storm Lee.

As many of you may know some of us work in the mass media business. This is a once- or twice-in-a-lifetime happening so we need to be on the ground or at our work desks. Still, I completed my projections the other day and want to get some of them out there before tonight’s game.

I chose quarterbacks as the first of the series, because it has serious considerations in the season opener between the Packers and Saints. Drew Brees has a not-so-good matchup (don’t get cute Week 1, play your studs!) but Aaron Rodgers will be one of the top two QBs this week.

Before we get to the projections:

1. Excuse the odd spacing. My computer’s been experiencing severe technical difficulties for almost a week now. A new machine is ordered and on the way. But this is what I have to work with for now.

2. I use several formulas to develop these numbers. However, when the dust settled I had to make a few modifications for players who missed a lot of last year (Matthew Stafford upgrade) and players thrust into a new situation (Luke McCown, Kerry Collins downgrades). NOTE: Collins has a great matchup and could surprise. If he wasn’t 38 years old and learning a system conducted by one of the NFL’s greatest football minds, I’d project him for top 10 numbers.

3. This projection method hasn’t been tested for a decade. It is brand new. There will be some bumps on the road, but I’m confident it will produce realistically accurate numbers.

4. Projections for touchdowns, interceptions and a couple other stats could be considered probability numbers as much as “projections.” When I say Mike Vick is going to throw for 1.5 TDs and 0.9 interceptions, it means he’s got a 50-50 shot of throwing two TDs and a 90 percent chance of throwing a pick. Andy Dalton has a 1.5 INT. He is the most likely QB to throw two interceptions. For fantasy points purposes, I multiplied the numbers by their respective fantasy points (4 points for passing touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, etc.) to help us split hairs.

2011 Week 1 Quarterbacks projections

Name         yds       td         int         sck       ruatt     ruyd     rutd      fum       FanPts

Mike Vick        260.0   1.5       0.9       2.6       6.0       45.0     0.4       0.1       24.0

Aaron Rodgers 254.0   1.3       0.6       2.3       4.0       22.0     0.3       0.4       20.0

Philip Rivers     280.0   1.7       0.8       2.0       2.0       3.0       0.0       0.1       19.3

B. Roethlisberger    260.0   1.4       1.0       2.3       2.0       10.0     0.1       0.3       17.8

Matt Schaub     270.0   1.4       0.9       1.9       1.0       2.0       0.0       0.0       17.6

Eli Manning      250.0   1.6       1.0       1.6       2.0       4.0       0.0       0.1       17.1

Josh Freeman   211.7   1.4       0.9       2.3       5.0       25.0     0.1       0.2       17.1

Tom Brady       229.5   1.7       0.6       2.1       2.0       2.0       0.0       0.0       17.1

Alex Smith        226.7   1.6       0.8       2.6       1.0       4.0       0.0       0.0       16.5

Mark Sanchez  214.3   1.6       1.2       2.0       2.0       6.0       0.2       0.0       16.5

M. Stafford         240.0   1.4       1.1       2.3       1.0       5.0       0.1       0.0       16.5

Tony Romo      227.9   1.6       0.9       2.3       1.0       5.0       0.0       0.1       16.4

Kyle Orton       218.8   1.7       0.8       2.5       2.0       7.0       0.0       0.2       16.3

J. Campbell         206.8   1.3       0.8       2.1       3.0       14.0     0.1       0.0       15.8

Matt Cassel      200.0   1.6       0.7       2.0       2.0       8.0       0.0       0.0       15.7

Matt Ryan        250.4   1.2       1.0       1.8       3.0       7.0       0.0       0.2       15.7

T. Jackson           210.0   1.3       1.1       2.3       3.0       15.0     0.1       0.1       15.5

Drew Brees      237.8   1.5       1.3       2.2       1.0       -1.0      0.0       0.0       15.4

M. Hasselbeck      219.9   1.5       0.8       1.5       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       15.2

Joe Flacco        235.0   1.2       1.0       2.7       2.0       5.0       0.1       0.2       15.1

Jay Cutler         212.5   1.5       1.4       2.4       3.0       13.0     0.1       0.3       15.1

D. McNabb       205.0   1.3       1.1       2.6       3.0       13.0     0.1       0.0       15.0

R. Fitzpatrick       201.3   1.3       1.0       2.4       3.0       20.0     0.0       0.2       15.0

Sam Bradford   215.0   1.4       1.3       2.4       2.0       4.0       0.1       0.0       14.9

Kevin Kolb      239.0   1.2       1.1       2.2       2.0       2.0       0.0       0.1       14.5

Kerry Collins    245.0   1.0       0.9       1.4       1.0       1.0       0.0       0.0       14.5

Chad Henne     236.3   1.3       1.3       2.2       2.0       3.0       0.0       0.1       14.5

Rex Grossman  218.0   1.4       1.0       2.8       1.0       2.0       0.0       0.1       14.4

Cam Newton    195.6   1.1       1.1       2.3       4.0       20.0     0.1       0.1       14.2

Luke McCown 215.0   1.2       1.2       2.5       2.0       7.0       0.0       0.0       13.9

Colt McCoy     200.0   1.0       1.1       1.8       2.0       10.0     0.1       0.0       13.6

Andy Dalton     200.0   1.3       1.5       1.9       2.0       10.0     0.0       0.0       13.2

3 Responses to “.Fantasy football 2011 | Week 1 Quarterback projections”


  1. Sam Davis

    woohoo! keep the projections coming.

  2. Charles

    Kindof shocked to see Matt Ryan SOOO low on your list…especially below such players as Henne, Collins and McNabb.
    I am a Bears fan and can fully atest that their D is not that good and will take a step back in ’11.
    Could you explain your rationale here?

  3. ep

    Sam Davis: Thanks. Sorry for the delay with the other projections. But work has not been favorable the last few days. I’m going to post the rest of the positions early Saturday morning (EST).
    As long as the weather evens out, they’ll be more regular (and I’ll have more time to adjust for accuracy) in the coming weeks.

    Charles: Thanks for pointing Ryan out.
    The formula is calculated using last year’s defensive statistics and offensive statistics based on what I think a team will produce in 2011. Ryan could get about 30 more yards than what the formula gave him, that is for sure. I’m going to adjust it in the morning.

    However, I’m not going to change the TD/INT numbers which are much more important to the equation.
    Last season, the Bears made 21 INTs (tied for fifth best in the NFL) and only allowed 14 passing TDs (second best in the NFL). But they allowed a lot of yards through the air. There’s a lot of bend-but-don’t break there.

    Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije will continue to terrorize QBs. Imagine what happens if Amobi Okoye, who is only 24 and could be motivated as a Bears third-stringer, remembers some of the magic that led him to a 5.5 sack season as a rookie with the Texans. Stranger things have happened when players changed teams.

    D.J. Moore, who had four pics last year, is now the third string CB on his side of the D. There were two other Bears who had more pics than him last season, Chris Harris and Charles Tillman. Both of them are back. Tim Jennings looks like he’s coming around.

    I also love Major Wright AND Brandon Merriweather at FS. That embarrassment of riches at safety, along with Harris, could help them continue to mask their lack of quality depth at CB.

    The Bears were also fantastic at forcing fumbles, leading the NFL with 15. They recovered 6 fumbles (tied for fourth).

    I’ll probably eat these words on Monday, but I’m going to blurt them out anyway: I see a lot of rankings with Matt Ryan in the top 10 this week, but I wonder if too many people have clipped on some rose colored-glasses after his fantastic season in 2010.

    That said, the slight boost in yardage will slide him up into the QB14-QB16 range, which makes him a starter with upside in many leagues.

    Again, these projections are untested and could be totally off, but they predict a close 21.25-19.5 game in the Falcons favor.