Fantasy football 2011 | Week 1 running back projections

None of the running backs in Thursday’s season-opener were particularly great plays.

I look forward to seeing what Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles do this week. If Arian Foster plays I like his matchup too.

[SUNDAY UPDATE: Looks like Foster is a no go. I prefer Ben Tate as a better handcuff play but I see Derrick Ward with better projections from the experts.]

Before we get to the projections:

1. Excuse the odd spacing. My computer’s been experiencing severe technical difficulties for almost a week now. A new machine is ordered and on the way. But this is what I have to work with for now.

2. This projection method hasn’t been tested for a decade. It is brand new. There will be some bumps on the road, but I’m confident it will produce realistically accurate numbers. Several formulas are used to determine the numbers, including previous performance and my expectations for this year.

3. Projections for touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles could be considered probability numbers as much as “projections.” When I say Mike Vick is going to throw for 1.5 TDs and 0.9 interceptions, it means he’s got a 50-50 shot of throwing two TDs and a 90 percent chance of throwing a pick. For fantasy points purposes, I multiplied the numbers by their respective fantasy points (6 points for rush/reception touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, etc.) to help us split hairs.

2011 Week 1 running back projections

Name   Att       Yds      TD       FUM    REC     TAR     yds       TD       FanPts

Chris Johnson       22        98        0.9       0.2       3          4          17        0.1       17.1

Arian Foster*         20        95        0.7       0.4       4          5          35        0          16.4

Adrian Peterson        18        85        0.8       0.1       2          3          22        0.1       15.9

Jamaal Charles     15        90        0.4       0.2       3          4          31        0.2       15.3

Peyton Hillis         17        77        0.7       0.5       4          5          30        0.2       15.1

Darren McFadden    14        72        0.5       0.4       3          4          35        0.3       14.7

Matt Forte            14        60        0.4       0          4          5          41        0.2       13.7

Reggie Bush         16        70        0.5       0.4       3          5          27        0.3       13.4

M. Jones-Drew    18        90        0.2       0.1       3          3          25        0.1       13.1

Frank Gore          15        70        0.4       0.4       3          5          32        0.2       13

Ray Rice              16        65        0.3       0          4          6          38        0.1       12.7

LeSean McCoy        12        65        0.3       0.1       5          6          36        0.1       12.3

Ahmad Bradshaw     14        70        0.5       0.3       3          4          25        0          11.9

Michael Turner     17        74        0.8       0.4       1          1          5          0          11.9

Steven Jackson     21        79        0.4       0.4       3          4          22        0          11.7

Fred Jackson        14        60        0.6       0.1       3          5          15        0.1       11.5

DeAngelo Williams   17        70        0.6       0.1       2          2          8          0          11.2

Beanie Wells        17        75        0.7       0.3       0          0          0          0          11.1

LeGarrette Blount         16        80        0.6       0.3       0          0          0          0          11

Rashard Mendenhall     18        74        0.5       0.3       1          2          12        0          11

Jahvid Best           15        57        0.4       0.2       3          4          25        0.1       10.8

B.Green-Ellis        15        65        0.6       0          0          0          0          0          10.1

Knowshon Moreno      13        55        0.2       0.1       2          3          21        0.2       9.8

LaDainian Tomlinson    11        48        0.4       0          4          5          25        0          9.7

Tim Hightower      11        50        0.3       0.2       3          4          21        0.2       9.7

Felix Jones       11        50        0.3       0.3       3          4          25        0.1       9.3

Thomas Jones       15        55        0.5       0.2       1          1          9          0          9

Brandon Jacobs            10        55        0.5       0.1       1          1          5          0          8.8

Mike Tolbert        11        43        0.5       0.2       2          2          12        0          8.1

Cedric Benson      18        55        0.3       0.3       2          3          8          0.1       8.1

Pierre Thomas      10        55        0.3       0.1       2          2          10        0          8.1

Michael Bush        10        40        0.5       0.1       1          2          12        0          8

Joseph Addai       12        50        0.4       0.1       1          2          7          0          7.9

Shonn Greene       11        50        0.3       0.2       1          2          8          0          7.2

Ryan Mathews     11        45        0.3       0.1       1          2          9          0          7

Mark Ingram        10        40        0.4       0.1       1          1          7          0          6.9

Danny Woodhead        6          35        0.2       0.3       2          3          23        0          6.4

Marshawn Lynch          12        40        0.3       0.2       1          2          10        0          6.4

Deji Karim           9          35        0.2       0.1       2          4          17        0          6.2

Bernard Scott       10        45        0.2       0          1          1          3          0          6

Tashard Choice            9          34        0.3       0          1          2          6          0          5.8

Ricky Williams      6          23        0.3       0.2       2          3          15        0.1       5.8

James Starks        8          35        0.3       0          1          1          1          0          5.4

Justin Forsett        7          30        0.1       0          2          3          17        0          5.3

Jerome Harrison           5          23        0.2       0.1       3          5          19        0          5.2

Delone Carter       8          31        0.3       0.1       1          1          5          0          5.2

Mike Goodson     5          20        0.2       0.2       3          4          22        0          5

C.J. Spiller           5          30        0          0.1       3          4          15        0.1       4.9

Daniel Thomas      5        20       0.1       0.3       0          0          0          0          2.0

Jonathan Stewart          5          25        0.2       0.3       1          1          8          0.1       4.5

Earnest Graham            5          20        0.1       0.1       2          3          15        0.1       4.5

Ryan Grant           8          35        0.1       0          1          1          4          0          4.5

Darren Sproles     5          20        0          0.1       3          4          20        0.1       4.4

Ryan Torain          5          18        0.2       0          1          2          7          0.1       4.3

Marcel Reece       2          8          0.1       0.2       2          3          20        0.2       4.2

Willis McGahee            7          20        0.3       0.2       1          2          8          0          4.2

Jason Snelling       1          15        0.1       0          2          3          15        0.1       4.2

Kendall Hunter     5          20        0.2       0          1          1          8          0          4

Jacquizz Rodgers          2          6          0          0          2          3          20        0.2       3.8

Chester Taylor      2          15        0.2       0          1          2          10        0          3.7

Marian Barber      6          20        0.2       0          1          1          5          0          3.7

L.Stephens-Howling     5          23        0.1       0.1       1          2          8          0          3.5

John Kuhn            5          17        0.1       0          1          1          5          0.1       3.4

Javon Ringer     4          17        0.2       0          1          1          4          0          3.3

Ben Tate              3          20        0.1       0          1          1          4          0          3

Anthony Dixon     5          15        0.2       0          0          0          0          0          2.7

DaMarco Murray         5          20        0.1       0          0          0          0          0          2.6

Derrick Ward       3          16        0.1       0          1          1          4          0          2.6

Roy Helu              4          19        0.1       0          0          0          0          0          2.5

Mewelde Moore          3          10        0          0          2          2          14        0          2.4

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