Fantasy football 2011 | Week 1 running back projections
None of the running backs in Thursday’s season-opener were particularly great plays.
I look forward to seeing what Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles do this week. If Arian Foster plays I like his matchup too.
[SUNDAY UPDATE: Looks like Foster is a no go. I prefer Ben Tate as a better handcuff play but I see Derrick Ward with better projections from the experts.]
Before we get to the projections:
1. Excuse the odd spacing. My computer’s been experiencing severe technical difficulties for almost a week now. A new machine is ordered and on the way. But this is what I have to work with for now.
2. This projection method hasn’t been tested for a decade. It is brand new. There will be some bumps on the road, but I’m confident it will produce realistically accurate numbers. Several formulas are used to determine the numbers, including previous performance and my expectations for this year.
3. Projections for touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles could be considered probability numbers as much as “projections.” When I say Mike Vick is going to throw for 1.5 TDs and 0.9 interceptions, it means he’s got a 50-50 shot of throwing two TDs and a 90 percent chance of throwing a pick. For fantasy points purposes, I multiplied the numbers by their respective fantasy points (6 points for rush/reception touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, etc.) to help us split hairs.
2011 Week 1 running back projections
Name Att Yds TD FUM REC TAR yds TD FanPts
Chris Johnson 22 98 0.9 0.2 3 4 17 0.1 17.1
Arian Foster* 20 95 0.7 0.4 4 5 35 0 16.4
Adrian Peterson 18 85 0.8 0.1 2 3 22 0.1 15.9
Jamaal Charles 15 90 0.4 0.2 3 4 31 0.2 15.3
Peyton Hillis 17 77 0.7 0.5 4 5 30 0.2 15.1
Darren McFadden 14 72 0.5 0.4 3 4 35 0.3 14.7
Matt Forte 14 60 0.4 0 4 5 41 0.2 13.7
Reggie Bush 16 70 0.5 0.4 3 5 27 0.3 13.4
M. Jones-Drew 18 90 0.2 0.1 3 3 25 0.1 13.1
Frank Gore 15 70 0.4 0.4 3 5 32 0.2 13
Ray Rice 16 65 0.3 0 4 6 38 0.1 12.7
LeSean McCoy 12 65 0.3 0.1 5 6 36 0.1 12.3
Ahmad Bradshaw 14 70 0.5 0.3 3 4 25 0 11.9
Michael Turner 17 74 0.8 0.4 1 1 5 0 11.9
Steven Jackson 21 79 0.4 0.4 3 4 22 0 11.7
Fred Jackson 14 60 0.6 0.1 3 5 15 0.1 11.5
DeAngelo Williams 17 70 0.6 0.1 2 2 8 0 11.2
Beanie Wells 17 75 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 11.1
LeGarrette Blount 16 80 0.6 0.3 0 0 0 0 11
Rashard Mendenhall 18 74 0.5 0.3 1 2 12 0 11
Jahvid Best 15 57 0.4 0.2 3 4 25 0.1 10.8
B.Green-Ellis 15 65 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 10.1
Knowshon Moreno 13 55 0.2 0.1 2 3 21 0.2 9.8
LaDainian Tomlinson 11 48 0.4 0 4 5 25 0 9.7
Tim Hightower 11 50 0.3 0.2 3 4 21 0.2 9.7
Felix Jones 11 50 0.3 0.3 3 4 25 0.1 9.3
Thomas Jones 15 55 0.5 0.2 1 1 9 0 9
Brandon Jacobs 10 55 0.5 0.1 1 1 5 0 8.8
Mike Tolbert 11 43 0.5 0.2 2 2 12 0 8.1
Cedric Benson 18 55 0.3 0.3 2 3 8 0.1 8.1
Pierre Thomas 10 55 0.3 0.1 2 2 10 0 8.1
Michael Bush 10 40 0.5 0.1 1 2 12 0 8
Joseph Addai 12 50 0.4 0.1 1 2 7 0 7.9
Shonn Greene 11 50 0.3 0.2 1 2 8 0 7.2
Ryan Mathews 11 45 0.3 0.1 1 2 9 0 7
Mark Ingram 10 40 0.4 0.1 1 1 7 0 6.9
Danny Woodhead 6 35 0.2 0.3 2 3 23 0 6.4
Marshawn Lynch 12 40 0.3 0.2 1 2 10 0 6.4
Deji Karim 9 35 0.2 0.1 2 4 17 0 6.2
Bernard Scott 10 45 0.2 0 1 1 3 0 6
Tashard Choice 9 34 0.3 0 1 2 6 0 5.8
Ricky Williams 6 23 0.3 0.2 2 3 15 0.1 5.8
James Starks 8 35 0.3 0 1 1 1 0 5.4
Justin Forsett 7 30 0.1 0 2 3 17 0 5.3
Jerome Harrison 5 23 0.2 0.1 3 5 19 0 5.2
Delone Carter 8 31 0.3 0.1 1 1 5 0 5.2
Mike Goodson 5 20 0.2 0.2 3 4 22 0 5
C.J. Spiller 5 30 0 0.1 3 4 15 0.1 4.9
Daniel Thomas 5 20 0.1 0.3 0 0 0 0 2.0
Jonathan Stewart 5 25 0.2 0.3 1 1 8 0.1 4.5
Earnest Graham 5 20 0.1 0.1 2 3 15 0.1 4.5
Ryan Grant 8 35 0.1 0 1 1 4 0 4.5
Darren Sproles 5 20 0 0.1 3 4 20 0.1 4.4
Ryan Torain 5 18 0.2 0 1 2 7 0.1 4.3
Marcel Reece 2 8 0.1 0.2 2 3 20 0.2 4.2
Willis McGahee 7 20 0.3 0.2 1 2 8 0 4.2
Jason Snelling 1 15 0.1 0 2 3 15 0.1 4.2
Kendall Hunter 5 20 0.2 0 1 1 8 0 4
Jacquizz Rodgers 2 6 0 0 2 3 20 0.2 3.8
Chester Taylor 2 15 0.2 0 1 2 10 0 3.7
Marian Barber 6 20 0.2 0 1 1 5 0 3.7
L.Stephens-Howling 5 23 0.1 0.1 1 2 8 0 3.5
John Kuhn 5 17 0.1 0 1 1 5 0.1 3.4
Javon Ringer 4 17 0.2 0 1 1 4 0 3.3
Ben Tate 3 20 0.1 0 1 1 4 0 3
Anthony Dixon 5 15 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 2.7
DaMarco Murray 5 20 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 2.6
Derrick Ward 3 16 0.1 0 1 1 4 0 2.6
Roy Helu 4 19 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 2.5
Mewelde Moore 3 10 0 0 2 2 14 0 2.4
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