Fantasy football 2011 | Week 11 Broncos-Jets preview with projections

There’s not quite as much to talk about during this week’s Thursday night game, but there are a couple absurd matchups that are worth discussing.

And, of course, there are a few injuries to discuss too.

Let’s start with the biggest matchups of the contest. The Broncos have been the easiest team for opposing quarterbacks to score fantasy points again. Meanwhile the Jets defense has been the toughest for opposing quarterbacks to score against.

However, I think it will be interesting to see what New York does against an atypical quarterback like Tim Tebow. More importantly, it’ll be interesting to see if Tebow runs a little more if the Jets can stuff Lance Ball enough times. The Jets and Broncos are both middle of the pack against the run.

Now, with that great disparity between passing rankings, it should come as no surprise that wide receivers follow suit — with the Jets being tough on WRs and the Broncos allowing WRs to have a good time — but it is interesting to note that the Broncos haven’t allowed tight ends to do much and the Jets have been susceptible to the tight end.

That translates to potential big games for Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes. As much as I’d like to tout Daniel Fells, Tebow completed just two of eight passes last week. One of those was a TD to Eric Decker, and that is beginning to be a theme between those two. Decker is the only Denver receiving threat I’d start — and if you have another option that isn’t facing Darrelle Revis it’s probably better to go that route.

I only have one real IDP note. One site I frequent has Denver’s D.J. Williams as a top-8 play this week. He’s not listed below — Wesley Woodyard has been more consistent and less injured this year — but Williams could be a sneaky play against the Jets.

Let’s talk injuries.

The decimated Broncos running back corps will trot Ball and Jeremiah Johnson out there. They are hardly Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno, but it’ll be interesting to see if Tebow’s running threat opens up lanes against the Jets as well as it has for McGahee in recent weeks (and Ball last week).

The Jets have some injury issues of their own. RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Jeremy Kerley did not practice Tuesday and I don’t expect them to play on Thursday. The projections below reflect those injuries. I don’t think Shonn Greene gets all of the 40-50 total yards LT was gobbling up each week, but he’ll get some of it, making him a sneaky start this week.

Last week I explained that these numbers don’t help so much without a point of reference. So let’s compare some of the numbers to last week’s projections:

Both Tebow and Mark Sanchez would have been projected for the QB8-QB12 area last week. They could see a bit of a bump because there are four teams on bye this week, but they are not must-start QBs.

Last week, both Greene and Ball would have been projected as No. 2 RBs.

Plaxico Burress‘ projections for this week would have put him in our top-5 WRs last week. Both Santonio Holmes and Eric Decker would have been projected as fantasy starters.

It is unlikely that Dustin Keller will put up starter-caliber numbers this week.

Neither kicker is a great play, but Nick Folk is a borderline starter.

Both defenses would have projected into the top seven last week.

None of the IDPs are particularly great starts, but depending on the depth of your league they all could make solid starters this week. They all would have projected into around 50th and below.

Like I said last week, be sure to compare these sleeper-heavy projections against our early Week 11 player rankings.

On to the projections:

2011 fantasy football Week 11 projections: Broncos vs. Jets

QBs TM OPP fpts Com Att Yds TD Int Ru Yds TD FUM
Tim Tebow DEN NYJ 19.0 12 22 172 1.3 1.2 7 60 0.4 0.2
Mark Sanchez NYJ DEN 18.6 20 33 249 1.8 0.8 4 10 0.3 0.4
Rush TM OPP fpts Att Yds TD FUM Rec Tar yds TD
Shonn Greene NYJ DEN 12.3 19 83 0.3 0.1 2 3 17 0.1
Lance Ball DEN NYJ 11.3 20 75 0.4 0.2 1 2 4 0.2
S.Larsen DEN NYJ 2.2 1 3 0.1 0.1 1 1 8 0.1
Joe McKnight NYJ DEN 1.3 3 8 0.1 0.1
John Conner NYJ DEN 0.9 1 4 0.1 0.1
Receivers TM OPP fpts Rec Tar yds TD
P. Burress NYJ DEN 13.4 5 9 80 0.9
Eric Decker DEN NYJ 10.7 4 8 65 0.7
S. Holmes NYJ DEN 10.6 5 8 70 0.6
Dustin Keller NYJ DEN 6.3 4 7 45 0.3
Daniel Fells DEN NYJ 4.2 2 3 24 0.3
Dem. Thomas DEN NYJ 4 1 2 28 0.2
Eddie Royal DEN NYJ 3.8 2 4 26 0.2
Eron Riley NYJ DEN 3.3 3 5 27 0.1
Matt Willis DEN NYJ 2.9 1 2 17 0.2
Kickers TM OPP fpts xpm fgm
Nick Folk NYJ DEN 7.7 2.7 1.7
Matt Prater DEN NYJ 6.2 2.2 1.3
Defense OPP Sack fpts Int FF prtd krtd intd futd FGb pntb Sfty
Jets DEN 2.3 8.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Broncos NYJ 2.6 7.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
IDP TM OPP fpts Tck sck pd int ff
Eric Smith NYJ DEN 11.8 5.1 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
David Harris NYJ DEN 11.1 4.5 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
Calvin Pace NYJ DEN 10.1 3.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2
W. Woodyard DEN NYJ 11.7 5.8 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Joe Mays DEN NYJ 9.3 4.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
Von Miller DEN NYJ 10.6 3.6 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.1

 

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