2016 Draft Kit

Fantasy football ADP rankings and analysis: Top 120 (81-100)

In my initial post in this series, I reminded you why I like ADP so much.

It is one of the most revealing tools in our arsenal.

This next portion of the top 120 gives us more examples why the zero-RB strategy works so well. There are a pile of good options in here. There are also some extremely talented quarterbacks on this list, backing up the wait-on-QB strategy as well.

This is the second in a series of ADP rankings. In these articles I’ll look at where players are going and whether they provide good, great or little value at the position where most of the industry is selecting them.

I’m using data from Fantasy Football Calculator, as I have for a number of seasons. The data was collected from 1,624 15-round, 12-team drafts conducted on the site Aug. 10-12.

2016 redraft rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF | LB | DB | DL

2016 Draft Kit | Position scarcity | 2016 preseason primer

2016 DVOA strength of schedule | Printable DVOA SoS

2016 ADP rankings: Overall 1-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | 81-100 | 101-120

ADP top 120 (81-100)

81 7.09 Michael Crabtree WR OAK 6 This ADP is a little high. He’s falling into the 9th in some drafts. I don’t expect as much TD regression as some. He only had one multi-TD game, scoring twice in a shootout against Pittsburgh. He’s a mid-round target for me.
82 7.09 Melvin Gordon RB SD 10 Post-hype sleeper. His teammate, Danny Woodhead, is 31 years old, but was the No. 3 PPR fantasy running back in 2015. If Gordon improved at all in the offseason he’ll cut into those shares
83 7.1 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 9 If Eifert was healthy, you would have to pay quite a bit more for him. He’s expected back early in the regular season. I’m not a big fan of paying this much for someone who has no chance to get me 16 games, but he has fallen into the 11th round. He becomes a better value in the 9th-11th rounds.
84 7.11 Kevin White WR CHI 7 Paying a seventh-round price for White seems alright. The Bears picked the West Virginia product seventh overall in 2015. There are risks becuase he’s never been on the field in an NFL game and he only had one big college season. But there’s also the chance he could be part of a killer 1-2 punch for Chicago.
85 7.11 Carson Palmer QB ARI 9 Palmer’s age is starting to creep up, and it’s not like he hasn’t had his share of bumps and bruises during his career. But I’m still drafting Palmer quite a bit. He’s got one of the most talented supporting casts in the NFL.
86 7.11 Sterling Shepard WR NYG 11 You have to sift through a lot of, err, stuff in the preseason, but everything I’ve read so far about Shepard has been overwhelmingly positive. Coverages are going to have to double or triple Odell Beckham Jr. most downs. If Shepard poses a serious threat on the other side it could mean huge things for the Giants offense.
87 8.01 Justin Forsett RB BAL 8 Forsett is 31. But he hasn’t taken as much punishment as a lot of other running backs his age. I really like Forsett at this price, especially because he could get feature-back work..
88 8.03 Chris Ivory RB JAC 5 Ivory is not an every-down back, but I suspect he’ll steal quite a few touches from T.J. Yeldon. He’s a good zero-RB option.
89 8.04 Marvin Jones WR DET 10 I’ve owned Jones the last couple of years when he wasn’t nearly as heavily used by the Bengals. However, now he steps into a Lions team in need of a No. 1 wide receiver. There are many who think Golden Tate will remain No. 2. Even if he doesn’t, Jones is well worth the price here.
90 8.04 DeSean Jackson WR WAS 8 Jackson is 29 years old, which means he should have a couple more years of high-level production. But he’s oft-injured and I wonder if those bumps and bruises mount earlier for a receiver who relies on his speed to make plays.
91 8.04 Blake Bortles QB JAC 5 There should be some regression here, but Bortles’ weapons are too good for him to fall completely off the charts. He should be drafted ahead of Manning, which is the case here.
92 8.06 Charles Sims RB TB 6 Sims is another good zero-RB candidate. Rounds 6-10 are loaded with these running backs who have enough PPR and spot-time value to be a viable low-end starter many weeks
93 8.06 Eli Manning QB NYG 11 As I said above in the Shepard blurb, the cards seem to be stacked in Manning’s favor. He could have a serious threat on the other side from OBJ. If Cruz returns with any sort of talent this could be one of the most potent offenses in the NFL in 2016.
94 8.07 Julius Thomas TE JAC 5 Injuries are always the concern, but there’s elite tight end production possible here.
95 8.09 Jay Ajayi RB MIA 8 Ajayi is another zero-RB candidate, whose value took a bit of a hit when Arian Foster signed with the Dolphins. It’ll be interesting to see what the team does with Ajayi when Foster gets hurt.
96 8.1 Corey Coleman WR CLE 13 The most talented wide receiver in the 2016 draft and the Browns new No. 1 wide receiver. While it’s difficult to get excited about the Browns, they have a new quarterback, a pile of wide receivers to help take the pressure off Coleman and a new coach known for his offense.
97 8.12 Theo Riddick RB DET 10 What did we say about zero-RB candidates? Riddick will get PPR points whether starter Ameer Abdullah is healthy or not, making him one of the best mid-round running back options.
98 9.02 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 11 I believe Coleman has little value unless Devonta Freeman gets hurt. Even as Freeman slowed down in the second half of the season, Coleman didn’t didn’t get much extra work except for his 100-yard game in week 12, which Freeman missed.
99 9.03 Stefon Diggs WR MIN 6 There’s been a lot of positive buzz about Stefon Diggs so far this preseason. I love the talent. The problem is this is still Adrian Peterson’s team, so there won’t be as many opportunities for him to shine.
100 9.03 Gary Barnidge TE CLE 13 One-thousand-yard, nine-touchdown tight ends don’t just fall out of the sky. They also never last until round 9, unless there’s question he’ll ever be able to repeat. That’s the case with Barnidge. However, unless he gets hurt or take a seroius step backward, he should have ample opportunities in a Hue Jackson offense which got 13 TDs out of Tyler Eifert last season.

There are a handful of players in these rounds that I absolutely want to own in 2016. Players who I believe will far outplay their draft slots.

Which players are you targeting in the eight round of your drafts? Which players are you avoiding? Let us know in the comments.

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Stay awesome, Ninja.

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