In following with some of the recent posts, I would like to share my opinion about redraft leagues most importantly the draft itself.
Everyone thinks that they need to get one of the top picks. That without Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, or Adrian Peterson their team is doomed. Well folks breathe easy your season is not over if you don’t get one of those electric playmakers.
First, I am under the firm belief that fantasy titles aren’t won in the first 5 rounds. Fantasy titles are won in rounds seven to 13. Let me explain.
It is my opinion that of the players taken in the first round each one on any given day will be within say 3-5 points of each other in the head to head set up. If AP or CJ2K breaks out for 200 and three scores you’re screwed anyway so don’t worry about that. What I have come to realize is that an average score for those top backs is right around 125 total yards and a score. So as long as your first round pick comes close to matching Adrian Peterson’s day you should be in good shape. Now in my opinion this trend will continue into the fourth to fifth round.
So that brings us to the later rounds, barring some of the best luck in the world your team will suffer an injury to one of those top 5 guys or one will underperform… Matt Forte 2009. When this happens you will need one of these guys selected here to fill in and make up for those points. Two years ago this guy could have been Eddie Royal, or Jamaal Charles last year.
So what I do is I cast my top rankings to the wind, those are great for everyone but you and everyone else knows that Ray Rice is a top back and that Andre Johnson should be the number 1 wideout off the board… you don’t need to research to figure that out.
What you need to research is those second teamers that could be breakout players that will provide you with a spark if someone goes down or better yet step in and outperform your top choices.
If you look at the teams last year that were very successful I bet you that you would see some common trends. They had Ray Rice or Cedric Benson ( both of which could have been selected after round 5) they might have had Sidney Rice or Mike Sims-Walker on them. The list goes on. If you don’t believe me check some of last year’s total points stats some of the late comers are near the top and they tend to be on the playoff and superbowl teams.
Think outside the box, surprise the other owners look to get those sleepers and surprise breakout players to help round out your roster and set your team up for long term success.
Not to brag but last year I finished with a first, second, and much disputed third place in fantasy. All my teams made the playoffs and that third should have been a title but a very lame tiebreaker cost me the first playoff game. This method has been tested and has worked for me for the past 4 years, give it a try you will be hooked on the winning way.