With the news dropped from above that quarterback Donovan McNabb has been moved to the Redskins for a second round pick and a conditional 4th round pick in the 2011 draft. One is to ask what is the impact on Fantasy.
Jason Campbell just became worthless to the Redskins and most likely will be released or moved to another team. He could gain value if he ends up in the proper situation. Most likely his value is done barring something crazy.
McNabb will take a fantasy hit since he doesn’t have the best set of wideouts in Washington. If Shanny can coach up the young wideouts and tight ends McNabb could be seeing numbers just like he had in Philly.
Fred Davis, Chris Cooley, Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, Malcom Kelly will all benefit a great deal, now that they have legit quarterback under center. Thomas and Moss could see the most since they both have breakaway speed and McNabb loves the deep ball. Davis and Cooley could become top tight ends since Shanny loves the tight end and McNabb has the same affection for the tight end.
All in all Redskins players will be taken much earlier this year but I think there will be some sleepers in the bunch. Keep an eye on Moss and whoever emerges as the slot guy (much like Eddie Royal).
Biggest winner of the deal is obviously Kevin Kolb. Everyone will shoot him up their draft boards and people will yearn to get him in dynasty leagues, but not so fast. He has really only seen action in 4 games. In two games he relieved McNabb — one time he was booed off the field and the other time he dinked and dimed. In the two games he started Kolb combined to go 55 for 85 (65% comp) with 718 yards 5 total TDs (1 rushing) and 3 INTs.
Ok those numbers are good, but they aren’t superstar numbers, and don’t project them because two games are not even close to a good sample size. Let me break down these games:
Game 1: Saints 48 Eagles 22
Kolb’s Stats: 31/51 391yards 2tds 3ints
DeSean Jackson caught a 71 yard touchdown and finished with 101 on 4 catches. He in turn he hit Jason Avant (slot receiver) 7 times for 79 yards and a score and Brent Celek 8 times for 104 yards. So what does this tell you? In my opinion it shows you that Kolb understands the West Coast system. He dinks and dimes the ball. He hits the short receivers and moves the ball slowly up the field. Jeremy Maclin, the other home run threat, had only 2 catches for 12 yards.
Also the numbers are kind of skewed since they got behind early and had to abandon the running game. They went to the air early and often. Kolb spreads the ball out well, but he does not have the strongest arm so it could hurt the value of Jackson over the entire season. Jackson’s superior run after the catch will help him turn short passes into something.
Game 2 : Chiefs 14 Eagles 34
Kolb’s Stats: 24/34 327yards 2tds 1rushing td
First of all the Chiefs Defense sucked something awful last year. But moving on from that, He again connected with Celek for 8 catches for 104 yards and hit Jackson on a 64-yard touchdown and he finished with 149 yards on 6 catches. No one else had any stat line that was worthy of fantasy notice.
Good numbers for Kolb and both Celek and Jackson had solid games. And they point to the fact that Celek will have a huge role in the offense next year. I worry that without the big time plays by Jackson he will see a drop in numbers.
My Advice: Bill Belichick once said that it takes 4-6 games of tape for a coach to figure out and fully learn the strengths and weaknesses of a player. So Kolb will not be an “unknown” for much longer. I am not sure if I am 100% sold that he is going to be the 2nd coming of McNabb or some super quarterback. I think he will be highly overvalued in redraft leagues and Dynasty teams who have him will not let him go for less than a king’s ransom. I see him going as one of the top 10 quarterbacks in a redraft league and some poor sap will count on him as his starter and most likely be disappointed. In a dynasty format I am going to assume he is not for sale. I don’t blame the owner but at the same time I have my worries.
I think that Andy Reid is on his way out of Philly. The McNabb trade is the writing on the wall. The Eagles will struggle a bit this year with a weak defense and I think they will ask Reid to move on after the season. If the new coach who comes in doesn’t like Kolb or wants to install a new system it could present issues.
For anyone who doubts Reid’s firing, think about these things. They got a new GM this year and the player with the biggest alliance to Reid is gone. No job in the NFL is safe, take Shanny in Denver. If you thought he was going to get fired I would like to shake your hand, but I doubt there is anyone who saw that coming. Acquire Kolb at your own risk. I think that he will finish in the top 15 but I think there will be better options out there.
Calling it here first: Reid fired next season, Kolb disappoints his fantasy owners, DeSean Jackson’s numbers take a hit, Celek is a top 3 fantasy tight end. Trash me now, praise me later.