On draft day, we attempt to pick players who will outscore our opponents every week.
As most of you know, weeks are not created equal. There can be huge fluctuations. Some players can amass a pile of points over the course of three games, drop stinkers the rest of the way and still finish in the top-10 in overall points.
We need to separate those players, or at least be aware who they are.
Consistency is important for season-long players and for daily fantasy players who focus on cash games, like 50/50s and head-to-heads. Meanwhile, those daily fantasy players who play tournaments should probably try to roster a volatile player who is primed to have a monster game.
Quarterback consistency chart for 2014
Chart legend: Avg is the average ranking a player had for all of 2016. AvgL5 is average over the last five weeks — a period that is believed to foreshadow potential for the next season. T10 is percentage of times a quarterback finished in the top-10. T12 is percentage of Top-12 finishes. And T14 is Top-14 finishes. A quarterback who finishes in the top-10 in a 10-team league is at least starter-caliber. Same goes for top-12 quarterbacks in 12-team leagues and top-14s in 14-teamers. The list is sorted by the top-12 percentage.
|31||Griffin III, Robert||WAS||30.35||21.80||22.2%||22.2%||22.2%|
Quarterback consistency notes
- There are a number of surprises in the top-20-ish. Ryan Tannehill falls outside of that list despite a stellar 2014. And one of the four players tied for 18th, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford, will also be pushed out of the top-20. Stafford has the lowest average ranking (16.94), so he’s the one I’d kick out.
- Backups Derek Anderson, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley are ahead of that high-priced quartet on the list. They played fewer games, but log their names in your mental hard drive because they are clearly backups worth sniping off the waiver wire if they are put in a position to start.
- Carson Palmer was one of the reasons why I did this list. Palmer missed 10 games, but if you sort this list by top-14s he ranks fifth. He had 1,626 yards, 11 TDs and 3 Ints before he got hurt last season, good for the second best quarterback rating (95.6) of his career. He has some powerful receiving weapons, too. He just needs to stay healthy. Call him a 2015 sleeper.
- Seeing Nick Foles at 11th has me a little more intrigued about his chances of performing admirably in St. Louis.
- One guy who might surprise a lot of people, especially Brandon Marshall, is our No. 7 quarterback, Jay Cutler. Shuffle the stats based on top-10s and Cutler is 10th. Shuffle them by top-14 and he’s 14th.
- Mark Sanchez at sixth may be one of the most glaring names. Who knows if he or Sam Bradford will start for the Eagles this season? But this chart indicates Sanchez, for as much as he was torn apart in New York, deserves a shot.
- Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are impressive. Players in big leagues (14 teams) got a starting-caliber performance out of the studs in three quarters of their contests last season. Fantasy owners are ecstatic at that kind of production.
- That makes Andrew Luck‘s numbers even more astounding. He averaged — AVERAGED — better than top-10 every week and had more top-10, top-12 and top-14 finishes than any other player.
Do you draft a consistent stud like Luck or Rodgers or do you wait and try to pick up somoene like Cutler or Eli Manning? Let us know in the comments.
May variance be in your favor today and every day.