First I will start off with the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick - The Irish whip showed up nicely for the Bills last year especially early on.   Although that is the case, I still would only recommend Fitzpatrick as bye week filler only.

RB – Fred Jackson/CJ Spiller - This duo was dynamic last season.  They just signed Fred Jackson to a multi year extension so look for them to use him often in 2012.  Jackson was leading the league in rushing until his season was cut short due to a broken leg.

WR – Stevie Johnson/Marcus Easley? – Johnson has estabished himself as a legitimate wide receiver in the NFL.  The Bills are still waiting on Easley to overcome injuries and take the reins and provide another threat on the other side of the field.

TE – Scott Chandler - Chandler did well in the red zone last year, he must improve on catching the ball more consistently to be considered a threat at the position.

Miami Dolphins

QB – Ryan Tannehill - The rookie will win the starting job because of his familiarity with Coach Mike Sherman’s offense.  He needs a lot of weapons though and it is going to be a tough road in Miami in the beginning I think.

RB – Reggie Bush/Daniel Thomas/Lamar Miller/Steve Slaton - Bush claims he is going to win the rushing title this season.  I have my entire life savings on the fact that he will NEVER do that in his entire career.  The man at most has had 216 carries in a single season.  That just won’t get it done to lead the league in rushing.  Plus Thomas if healthy figures to cut into his carries a little more in 2012 too.  I look at 2011 as a career year for Bush.

WR – Davone Bess/Brian Hartline/Clyde Gates - Bess has been a quality possession receiver over the years.  He could be a security blanket for Tannehill.  Don’t be surprised if Tannehill’s college teammate, UDFA Jeff Fuller emerges as a go to target too due to his familiarity of the offense and Tannehill.

TE – Michael Egnew - Anthony Fasano has been less than adequate at the position for some time.  Time to give some new blood a chance and see what happens.

New England Patriots

QB – Tom Brady - Should be on everyone’s top five want list at quarterback.  New toy Brandon Lloyd will only add to his value.

RB – Joseph Addai/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead - Belichick likes having veterans that don’t turn the football over at the running back position.  This time he brings in Addai who would be very fresh in a three man rotation and allow Addai to be in the game during critical moments.

WR – Brandon Lloyd/Wes Welker/Deion Branch - Lloyd will be the deep threat and Welker will play the PPR slot machine again for Tom Brady.

TE – Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez - Both of these guys finished in the top 5 at the tight end position last year.  For how much Brady throws the ball around, I see no reason for that not to happen again in 2012.

New York Jets

QB – Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow - Why is it as a Jets fan I get this feeling in my stomach that by Week 6 Tim Tebow will be the Jets every down quarterback?  I know they aren’t saying that now but it’s just a hunch.  Winning ugly here we come.

RB – Shonn Greene/Joe McKnight - Greene will work as the workhorse back while McKnight will be the change of pace and third down specialist.  Watch for Bilal Powell as a sleeper here should Greene succomb to injury.

WR – Santonio Holmes/Stephen Hill – I like Holmes and his playmaking abilities, Hill was a reach in the draft.  I liked Rueben Randle a lot more.  Let’s hope combine darling Hill turns out more like Dustin Keller, than like Vernon Gholston.

TE – Dustin Keller - He is a stud tight end the first few weeks of the season, then the Jets completely forget about him in their game plan the rest of the year.  Let’s get with the program and use him more.

The NFL offseason gives us time to evaluate the player pool, to plan ahead for fantasy football drafts – and to debate hot topics.

Today’s hot debate topic? Who will be the top five fantasy quarterbacks in redraft leagues this year?

Before I begin, remember that the whole method behind the chinstrapninjas madness is that we’re a site of people forming a community to help each other excel at fantasy sports. For my list of five to really make a difference, it needs analyzed, critiqued and debated. Feel free to do so below in the comments.

Check back soon for top five debates at the other major positions (RB, WR and TE).

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB. No surprise here, and likely no debate from the masses.

Rodgers is just that good, surrounded by a great supporting cast and the lack of a running game only enhances what Rodgers will need to do to keep adding points to the scoreboard.

Greg Jennings is of course a top receiver and Jordy Nelson showed his true worth last year. James Jones is back, and if he can learn to hold onto a football, he should see a step forward in production. Tight end Jermichael Finley also has no where to go but up. And don’t forget about last year’s rookie receiver addition: Randall Cobb.

2. Drew Brees, NO. Probably the consensus No. 2 on most boards, as well.

Brees has all his weapons back, except for Robert Meachem, and Meachem has been replaced by rookie Nick Toon, who should see value right off the bat in that offense. The running game is still a question mark in second-year Mark Ingram who is looking at more knee procedures. Darren Sproles provides Brees with a great weapon out of the backfield and tight end Jimmy Graham will continue to sit in the top three of all fantasy tight ends this season.

The offseason turmoil involving Brees’ contract, the bounty-gate scandal and other distractions will actually only improve Drew’s performance this season by giving him a vested interest in proving everyone wrong and by also giving him more control in the huddle without key members of his coaching staff on the sidelines.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT. Now comes some of the debate.

Big Ben is not a QB you’ll find in many Top 5 arguments, but give me a moment to explain. First, he’s coming off a season where he saw a career-high in passing attempts despite missing one game totally and being banged up in several others. He also recorded his second-best total yards (4,077) and third-highest TD total (21) of his NFL career thus far.

A large part of that equation was the emergence of Antonio Brown, who has become an elite receiver on a team that already boasts Mike Wallace. The fact that the Steelers have been able to keep Wallace this offseason means that Roethlisberger will have two elite receivers to stretch the field, and a strong supporting cast behind them.

The running game can not be relied upon, as Rashard Mendenhall will miss most, if not all, of the season and Pittsburgh did nothing to augment Isaac Redman in the backfield. The team will have to win through the air, which is just what Big Ben wants.

Some feared that new offensive coordinator Todd Haley would lead to a more smash-mouth style of play to the offense, however, few remember that Haley was the mastermind behind two years of Arizona offensive output that left the Cardinals second in the league in passing attempts.

4. Tom Brady, NE. Old reliable nails down the next ranking, with likely little fanfare.

Personally, I can’t stand Brady, and I’m always quick to think/hope he’ll start to see the decline we’d expect out of an older QB with that many miles on his arm.

However, Brady just seems to get better with age, helping both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez break out as tight ends while Wes Welker continues to shine. Add in new OC Josh McDaniels’ favorite toy, Brandon Lloyd, and it is impossible to expect anything but stellars numbers again from Mr. Brady.

5.  Eli Manning, NYG. Perhaps another head-scratcher considering some of the other names still available.

However, Eli proved last season he is willing and able to be the type of quarterback that can power a fantasy team to elite status. Of course, the same can be said about Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton, among others, but I get the feeling Eli is just getting started.

For one, he has better weapons than either Stafford or Cam Newton when you consider the depth. Hakeem Nicks is a true elite receiver. Victor Cruz came out of no where to become another elite option. While the G-Men lost Mario Manningham, they drafted a receiver I personally was pretty excited about in Reuben Randle. I also have a feeling we haven’t heard the last of Ramses Barden in fantasy circles.

Don’t forget about the intangible weapons, too. While the team was hit hard with injuries at tight end, they brought in Jason Witten’s understudy Martellus Bennett, who has the potential to be a solid tight end option. The running backs are able to snag their share of passes out of the backfield and even fullback Henry Hynoski has shown the ability to make important yardage when it counts.

After Calvin Johnson in Detroit, I find myself lacking enthusiasm for the rest of the receiving corps. Newton has an aging Steve Smith and not a lot after him (although Brandon LaFell should take a step forward this year).

Ultimately, Eli just feels like the safer pick.

Who are in your top five QBs for 2012? How would you rank them? Feel like debating my list? Let’s hear it all in the comments below, and don’t forget to check back for debates at the other key positions!

1.  Robert Griffin III - QB – Washington Redskins – The NFL has become a quarterback driven league and why not take who I think is the best FANTASY quarterback of this year’s class.  The reason I give him the nod over Andrew Luck is his running skills will give you those added rushing fantasy points that Luck doesn’t bring to the table.

2.  Andrew Luck - QB – Indianapolis Colts – Luck is a close second to RGIII.  He probably is the better pure passer of the two.  A good year to be looking for a quarterback if you have a high first round pick in your draft this year.

3.  Trent Richardson – RB – Cleveland Browns – Three down backs are rare in the league, and getting one should be a top priority.  Richardson could post top 10 running back numbers in Cleveland.

4.  Doug Martin - RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Another potential every down back.  Just needs to beat out a less talented LaGarrette Blount to get the ball his way.  My bet is that he is able to do just that.

5.  Michael Floyd - WR – Arizona Cardinals – Floyd landed in a nice spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  Hopefully he can flourish there much like Anquan Boldin did for years opposite Fitz.

6.  Justin Blackmon - WR – Jacksonville Jaguars – Blackmon is probably the best receiver of this year’s group.  The only thing pulling him down the list is the quarterback play of last year’s overhyped pretty boy Blaine Gabbert.

7.  David Wilson – RB – New York Giants – Even though Wilson projects as a part timer for now, I rank him ahead of many of the receivers from this class because none of them landed as a number 1 receiver in a great situation.  Running backs are hard to come by in dynasty and for how brittle Ahmad Bradshaw has been throughout his career, you may have a hidden starting gem in Wilson.

8.  Brandon Weeden - QB – Cleveland Browns – Weeden has better weapons around him in Cleveland than his fellow competitor Tannehill in Miami, which is why I give Weeden the slight nod here.

9.  Ryan Tannehill - QB – Miami Dolphins – Seems like everyone is trying to find that next great quarterback.  Maybe Tannehill is it.  Could be worth a look at this point in the draft.

10.  Brian Quick - WR – St Louis Rams – Quick will certainly be given the opportunity to be a number 1 receiver for Sam Bradford.  The Rams offense desperately needs a receiving playmaker.

11.  Chris Givens - WR – St Louis Rams – Givens is more of a vertical threat for Bradford to throw to.  Bradford hasn’t been asked to use the vertical game to stretch the field much in his time with the team, so it will be interesting to see how this meshes together.

12.  Kendall Wright - WR – Tennessee Titans – Wright has the talent to become a receiving force, but the log jam with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington already on board in Tennessee makes it tough to expect a breakout campaign barring any injuries.

13.  Stephen Hill - WR – New York Jets – With Hill’s size and athleticism he should be able to match or exceed Burress’s numbers from last year, which is about all the Jets could hope for.

14.  AJ Jenkins - WR – San Francisco 49ers – Once the Randy Moss experiment is over after this year, Jenkins may be given a chance to assert himself into the everyday lineup. 

15.  Alshon Jeffery - WR – Chicago Bears – Finally the Bears have themselves some receiving talent for Jay Cutler to throw to.  He along with Brandon Marshall should form a nice duo together.

16.  Rueben Randle - WR – New York Giants – Rumored to be a similar receiver to Hakeem Nicks, Randle will be a nice fit to take Mario Manningham’s place on the outside.  He still has limited upside potential though with Nicks and Cruz already in place.

17.  Coby Fleener – TE – Indianapolis Colts – Fleener is probably the best receiving tight end in the draft.  He goes to the Colts and Andrew Luck his former college teammate will remain throwing him the football.  They are sure to have good chemistry right away in their rookie seasons.

18.  Mohamed Sanu – WR – Cincinnati Bengals – Rumured to be a similar receiver to TJ Houshmandzadeh, he could become a nice possession receiver complement to AJ Green.

19.  DeVier Posey - WR – Houston Texans – I am sure Posey will be given every opportunity to win Houston’s WR2 slot opposite Andre Johnson.

20.  Ryan Broyles – WR – Detroit Lions - Broyles will be a nice receiver for the slot position in Detroit.  He will take over for Nate Burleson once he is back up to full speed healthwise again.

21.  Michael Egnew – TE – Miami Dolphins – Egnew represents the last of the rookies that I project to crack an opening week starting lineup.  He could be a nice dump off target for the rookie Tannehill.

22.  Isaiah Pead - RB – St Louis Rams – Everybody is always mining for potential starting running later in drafts.  Pead could be one.  In two years he could be Steven Jackson’s successor with the Rams.  I would take the chance on him.

23.  LaMichael James - RB – San Francisco 49ers – Let’s remember that this is the first running back that Coach Harbaugh selected to the team.  Plus the fact that he coached against him at Stanford means he knows James pretty well.  I could see James as being a potential successor to Frank Gore in a few years.

24.  Ronnie Hillman – RB – Denver Broncos – The Broncos have seemed to lost faith in Knowshon Moreno.  Willis McGahee is no spring chicken either.  I could see Hillman fighting for some touches as early as this year.

25.  Ladarius Green - TE – San Diego Chargers – If you own Antonio Gates in your dyno league, then pick this guy up as his successor.  He and Gates seem like clones of one another.

26.  Edwin Baker - RB – San Diego Chargers – The minutive Baker could reprise Darren Sproles role possibly in San Diego again.

27.  Lamar Miller - RB – Miami Dolphins – Despite the crowded backfield situation in Miami, Miller could see some playing time if Bush returns to his injured ways and Daniel Thomas trips getting out of the gate again.

28.  Chris Polk - RB – Philadelphia Eagles – Andy Reid has said he wants to cut back on LeSean McCoy’s touches this year.  Polk could certainly fill the void as a nice receiving back with some size to boot.

29.  Bernard Pierce – RB – Baltimore Ravens – Pierce will probably resprise Ricky Williams role from last year and serve as a handcuff to Ray Rice.

30.  Robert Turbin – RB – Seattle Seahawks – Can make the team and serve as a decent backup for Marshawn Lynch.

31.  Chris Rainey – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers – With The Steelers running game situation in the air for 2012, you never know what role he will have but he could be the third down back of choice.

32.  Vick Ballard – RB – Indianapolis Colts – Could be another sleeper at the running back position.  He would only have to beat out unimpressive Donald Brown and Delone Carter and all of a sudden he is the starter.  Worth a later flier in my opinion.

33.  Case Keenum - QB – Houston Texans – Due to oft injured Matt Schaub, I could see Keenum getting some playing time and eventually becoming a successor for Schaub at some point.

34.  Brock Osweiler - QB – Denver Broncos – Now that Tebow is gone the backup quarterback situation in Denver is pretty bare.  Should Peyton Manning succomb to the neck injuries again, Osweiler could break the starting lineup.

35.  Russell Wilson - QB – Seattle Seahawks – This slightly undersized but very talented quarterback could be in line for a starting role should Matt Flynn fall on his face outside of the Green Bay system and talent.

36.  Tommy Streeter - WR – Baltimore Ravens – A little more a physical receiver a la Boldin.  He could learn a few years behind Boldin and then serve as his eventual replacement.

37.  Nick Toon - WR – New Orleans Saints – The Saints see a similar receiver in him as they did with Marques Colston.  They need someone to replace Robert Meachem’s role so Toon could be in the mix for some catches.

38.  Juron Criner - WR – Oakland Raiders – A good value pick by the Raiders as he showed better talent than his draft position would indicate.  As long as the Raiders do not get someone established as a number 1 receiver there, then any Raider receiver is a prospect by me.

39.  Jarius Wright – WR – Minnesota Vikings – Even though they signed Jerome Simpson, his off the field behaviors may cause him to not be an answer for the Vikings at wide receiver.  Enter Jarius Wright and Greg Childs from Arkansas.  Both played well in the tough SEC conference.  One of them could at worst stick as a slot receiver for the team.

40.  Greg Childs - WR – Minnesota Vikings – Refer to Jarius Wright’s description above.

So there you have it my top 40 dynasty rookie player rankings.  I look forward to any comment or criticism below.

1.  Indianapolis Colts – Coby Fleener – Stanford – Round 2 Pick 2(34)

2.  Indianapolis Colts – Dwayne Allen – Clemson – Round 3 Pick 1(64)

3.  Miami Dolphins – Michael Egnew – Missouri – Round 3 Pick 15(78)

4.  San Diego Chargers – Ladarius Green – Louisiana Lafayette – Round 4 Pick 15(110)

5.  Chicago Bears – Evan Rodriguez – Temple – Round 4 Pick 16(111)

6.  Cincinnati Bengals – Orson Charles – Georgia - Round 4 Pick 21(116)

7.  New York Giants – Adrien Robinson – Cincinnati – Round 4 Pick 32(127)

8.  Tennessee Titans – Taylor Thompson – SMU – Round 5 Pick 10(145)

9.  Dallas Cowboys – James Hanna – Oklahoma – Round 6 Pick 16(186)

10.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Drake Dunsmore – Northwestern – Round 7 Pick 26(233)

11.  Pittsburgh Steelers – David Paulson – Oregon – Round 7 Pick 33(240)

12.  Cleveland Browns – Brad Smelley – Alabama – Round 7 Pick 40(247)

Please look for our soon to be released dynasty rookie rankings.

1.  Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Blackmon – Oklahoma State – Round 1 Pick 5(5)

2.  Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd – Notre Dame – Round 1 Pick 13(13)

3.  Tennessee Titans – Kendall Wright – Baylor – Round 1 Pick 20(20)

4.  San Francisco 49ers – AJ Jenkins – Illinois – Round 1 Pick 30(30)

5.  St. Louis Rams – Brian Quick – Appalachian State – Round 2 Pick 1(33)

6.  New York Jets - Stephen Hill – Georgia Tech – Round 2 Pick 11(43)

7.  Chicago Bears – Alshon Jeffery – South Carolina – Round 2 Pick 13(45)

8.  Detroit Lions – Ryan Broyles – Oklahoma – Round 2 Pick 22(54)

9.  New York Giants – Rueben Randle – LSU – Round 2 Pick 31(63)

10.  Houston Texans – DeVier Posey – Ohio State – Round 3 Pick 5(68)

11.  Buffalo Bills – TJ Graham – NC State – Round 3 Pick 6(69)

12. Cincinnati Bengals – Mohamed Sanu – Rutgers – Round 3 Pick 20(83)

13.  Indianapolis Colts – TY Hilton – Florida International - Round 3 Pick 29(92)

14.  St Louis Rams – Chris Givens - Wake Forest – Round 4 Pick 1(96)

15.  Cleveland Browns – Travis Benjamin – Miami(FL) – Round 4 Pick 5(100)

16.  Carolina Panthers – Joe Adams – Arkansas - Round 4 Pick 9(104)

17.  Kansas City Chiefs – Devon Wylie – Fresno State – Round 4 Pick 12(107)

18.  Minnesota Vikings – Jarius Wright – Arkansas – Round 4 Pick 23(118)

19.  Houston Texans – Keshawn Martin – Michigan State – Round 4 Pick 26(121)

20.  New Orleans Saints – Nick Toon – Wisconsin – Round 4 Pick 27(122)

21.  Minnesota Vikings – Greg Childs – Arkansas – Round 4 Pick 39(134)

22.  Dallas Cowboys – Danny Coale – Virginia Tech – Round 5 Pick 17(152)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals – Marvin Jones – California – Round 5 Pick 31(166)

24.  Oakland Raiders – Juron Criner – Arizona – Round 5 Pick 33(168)

25.  Miami Dolphins – BJ Cunningham – Michigan State – Round 6 Pick 13(183)

26.  Philadelphia Eagles – Marvin McNutt – Iowa – Round 6 Pick 24(194)

27.  Baltimore Ravens – Tommy Streeter – Miami(FL) – Round 6 Pick 28(198)

28.  Indianapolis Colts – LaVon Brazill – Ohio – Round 6 Pick 36(206)

29.  Miami Dolphins – Rishard Matthews – Nevada - Round 7 Pick 20(227)

30.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Tony Clemons – Colorado – Round 7 Pick 24(231)

31.  New England Patriots – Jeremy Ebert – Northwestern – Round 7 Pick 28(235)

32.  Kansas City Chiefs – Junior Hemingway – Michigan – Round 7 Pick 31(238)

33.  New York Jets – Jordan White – Western Michigan – Round 7 Pick 37(244)

1.  San Francisco 49ers – Chris Owusu – Stanford – UFA

1.  Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson – Alabama – Round 1 Pick 3(3)

2.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Doug Martin – Boise State – Round 1 Pick 31(31)

3.  New York Giants – David Wilson – Virginia Tech – Round 1 Pick 32(32)

4.  St. Louis Rams – Isaiah Pead – Cincinnati – Round 2 Pick 18(50)

5.  San Francisco 49ers – LaMichael James – Oregon – Round 2 Pick 29(61)

6.  Denver Broncos – Ronnie Hillman – San Diego State – Round 3 Pick 4(67)

7.  Baltimore Ravens – Bernard Pierce – Temple – Round 3 Pick 21(84)

8.  Miami Dolphins – Lamar Miller – Miami(FL) – Round 4 Pick 2(97)

9.  Seattle Seahawks – Robert Turbin – Utah State – Round 4 Pick 11(106)

10.  Minnesota Vikings – Rhett Ellison – USC – Round 4 Pick 33(128)

11.  Atlanta Falcons – Bradie Ewing – Wisconsin – Round 5 Pick 22(157)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Chris Rainey – Florida – Round 5 Pick 24(159)

13.  Indianapolis Colts – Vick Ballard – Mississippi State – Round 5 Pick 35(170)

14.  Washington Redskins – Alfred Morris – Florida Atlantic – Round 6 Pick 3(173)

15.  Kansas City Chiefs – Cyrus Gray – Texas A & M – Round 6 Pick 12(182)

16.  Cincinnati Bengals – Dan Herron – Ohio State – Round 6 Pick 21(191)

17.  New York Jets – Terrance Ganaway – Baylor – Round 6 Pick 32(202)

18.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Michael Smith – Utah State – Round 7 Pick 5(212)

19.  Philadelphia Eagles – Bryce Brown – Kansas State – Round 7 Pick 22(229)

20.  San Diego Chargers – Edwin Baker – Michigan State – Round 7 Pick 43(250)

21.  St. Louis Rams – Daryl Richardson – Abilene Christian – Round 7 Pick 45(252)

1.  Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Polk – Washington – UFA

1.  Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – Stanford – Round 1 Pick 1(1)

2.  Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III – Baylor – Round 1 Pick 2(2)

3.  Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill – Texas A & M – Round 1 Pick 8(8)

4.  Cleveland Browns – Brandon Weeden – Oklahoma State – Round 1 Pick 22(22)

5.  Denver Broncos – Brock Osweiler – Arizona State – Round 2 Pick  25(57)

6.  Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson – Wisconsin – Round 3 Pick 12(75)

7.  Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Foles – Arizona – Round 3 Pick 25(88)

8.  Washington Redskins – Kirk Cousins – Michigan State – Round 4 Pick 7(102)

9.  Arizona Cardinals – Ryan Lindley – San Diego State – Round 6 Pick 15(185)

10.  Green Bay Packers – BJ Coleman – Tennessee Chattanooga – Round 7 Pick 36(243)

11.  Indianapolis Colts – Chandler Harnish – Northern Illinois – Round 7 Pick 46(253)

1.  Houston Texans – Case Keenum – Houston – UFA

2.  Detroit Lions – Kellen Moore – Boise State  – UFA

We have a crazy fantasy league drafting today at 3 p.m.

The crazy part:

28-man rosters — all players are active every day so no worries about changing your lineup.

Scoring rules: No negative stats, no ratios/averages to worry about

Hitters: total bases, runs, stolen bases and RBI all worth one point each

Pitchers: wins are worth 10 points, saves are worth 5 points, strikeouts and innings are worth one point each.

To join up for this inaugural high-scoring, low maintenance league, log in at ESPN’s fantasy site, click join league and search for 321Atomic Fantasy Baseball.

I hope to see you at the draft.

——————–

UPDATE: Thanks for the interest everyone. The league is full.

Post a comment below if you would still like to play in a similar league. If we get enough people, I will set up a second league with identical scoring and rosters.

Most leagues start at least three outfielders. Some start five and allow players to start a sixth in a utility spot. In 10-team leagues, that means 30-60 outfielders are going to start and even more are going to be drafted for bench slots.

There are enough good outfielders to fill those slots, however the position feels shallower than I can remember. I feel confident drafting 15 or 16 of the outfielders, but the questions start before most teams will have half of their starting outfielders selected.

NOTE: Some of these blurbs are copied or modified from the AL-only top 20 and the NL-only top 20.

Mixed league ADPs: Top 20 | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

Other ADP rankings:  AL Only Top 20 | NL Only Top 20 |

2012 Mixed League 5×5 ADP Top 40 outfielders

ADP from Mock Draft Central (March 25, 2012)

1. Ryan Braun, OF, MIL: Could approach 30-30 season again. Braun’s batting average lifts him above Kemp.

2. Matt Kemp, OF, LAD: Kemp almost went 40-40 as a 26-year-old last year. Could he be better in 2012?

3. Jose Bautista, OF/3B, TOR: I don’t think he’s going to hit .300 again, but I have a feeling he’s closer to a .300 hitter than the .230s hitter he was in 2008 and 2009.

4. Justin Upton, OF, ARI: Remember what I said about Kemp? Upton is three years younger and had 31 homers and 21 steals last year.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS: Apparently a lot of people think he’s going to slug 35 homers again. When a batter goes from 70-steals to 35-homers overnight paint an exclamation mark on him. He could be great for the rest of his career, but 2012 drafters are paying career-year prices.

6. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL: Terrific season but was destined to not live up to the expectations created by CarGo 2010. Expect a performance somewhere between 2011 and 2010. That makes him my No. 4 outfielder, and one of my favorite second-round picks in 2012.

7. Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY: I’m a Yankees fan, so I want Granderson to slug it. However, it’s 2012 not 2011. The don’t-pay-for-a-career-year rule applies. Draft accordingly.

8. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT: Hit 23 homers and stole 23 bases last season. We can’t use last season as an exact predictor of success, but at age 25 on opening day he has time to cultivate and improve on that power-speed combo and his batting average (.259 last year).

9. Mike Stanton, OF, MIA: See sites projecting HUGE numbers for Stanton. Can’t say I disagree, especially with Reyes and HanRam in the lineup.

10. Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX: If history holds true expect 518+ at-bats, 30+ homers 100 runs and RBI. We could see him add 10 SBs to go with a .300+ batting average. I can’t explain the every other year phenomenon, but we should all recognize it.

11. Matt Holliday, OF, STL: My biggest concern for all Cardinals players is the effect of Albert Pujols’ departure. Holliday will hit third or fourth, so he’s still going to have a lot of value. I just wonder if he’ll have this much value.

12. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN: One of the things I’ve done recently is gone back and looked at some top prospects lists from years past. Bruce is one of those players near the top of the list for a couple years. He’s also been in the league for five years already. However, he’s only 24 — he’ll be 25 on opening day — and has hit at least 21 homers in all four seasons. Last year he hit 32, the eighth-most in the NL.

13. Carl Crawford, OF, BOS: Crawford is not expected to break camp with the club. He’ll be rehabbing his wrist (offseason surgery) in the offseason. The 31-year-old seemed to decline a bit last year and this wrist injury raises other questions. This price — around 42nd overall — reflects all of Crawford’s successes. Probably better to draft an undervalued Crawford in 2013.

14. Hunter Pence, OF, PHI: Read some massive hate for Pence in a comment on a fantasy post. (Go figure. Hate on the Internet.) But Pence, who turns 29 April 13, is entering his most reliable seasons, according to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. That means the skills we’ve seen are pretty close to what we’re going to get. He might not be a .300 hitter, but he’s going to hit mid-20s homers and, if the Phillies let him run, could get back into the 18-20 steals range.

15. Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX: Cruz lost about 12 pounds and strengthened his legs in the offseason, according to a report at Fangraphs. He also turns 32 in July and has never played in more than 128 games in any season. That 128-game season, however, saw him get to more than 500 at bats, hit 30 homers and steal 20 bags. He’s a risk-reward pick who will pay dividends for your team if you don’t deal him away when he goes on the shelf.

16. Michael Bourn, OF, ATL: I doubt he’ll hit in the .290s again this year, but Bourn is an interesting pick. He will give you elite steals — he’s a virtual lock for 60 — and give you 100 runs in that blossoming Braves lineup.

17. Desmond Jennings, OF, TB: I could see Jennings getting 15 homers, 100 runs and 40 steals. That’s a better investment than Bourn.

18. Alex Gordon, OF, KC: Last year, Gordon hit 23 homers, scored 101 runs, drove in 87 and stole 17 bags. While I don’t think he’ll repeat his .303 average — his batting average on balls in play was .358, well above what he’s done against major league pitching so far — he could match those counting stats, making him a solid pick here, in the seventh round. He’s fallen as far as to 212th in recent drafts. Do not let that happen in your league.

19. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE: I was the conductor on the Choo bandwagon last year because he was a lock for 20 homers and steals, 100 runs and RBI and a .300 batting average. Then he got hurt and played in only 85 games. Once a player shows a skill they own it, so he could return to form. But it’s going to take more than a could to get me to draft him this year.

20. B.J. Upton, OF, TB: I’m not one to worry about drafting a player that can kill your batting average if they produce in a bunch of other categories. Upton fits the bill. Last year, Upton went 82-23-81-36 last year, making his .243 average irrelevant. One concern right now (March 25) is that Upton is sitting out of games with an undefined injury.

21. Shane Victorino, OF, PHI: Three-year averages are good enough to predict 70% of all baseball outcomes, however I think Victorino’s are a little low. I’d say the 31-year-old will perform between last year and 2010. A solid pick, specially at 72nd overall or later.

22. Adam Jones, OF, BAL: Jones will turn 27 in August and flashed his potential last year. You want Adam Jones on your roster whether you play in a redraft or keeper league. He hit 25 homers and stole 12 bags last season. Expect a repeat and be happy if he increases those numbers.

23. Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN: Stubbs was very B.J. Upton-esque in 2010. He lost some RBIs in 2011, but 15 homers, 90 runs ad 40 stolen bases provide a pretty good profile for a 27-year-old.

24. Brett Gardner, OF, NYY: The Yankees version of Michael Bourn, Gardner could score 100 runs and steal 50 bags.

25. Corey Hart, OF, MIL: Could miss opening day and his knee will prevent him from getting to 20 steals. But if his knee is good enough for him to hit at a high level, he could go80-25-80-.275. Like I said in the intro, there are a lot of questions on this list, and Hart is among the highest when it comes to risk-reward.

26. Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, COL: The 33-year-old is a potential gold mine at around 92nd overall. His three year averages, with annual high: 22 (32) homers, 85 (93) runs, 81 (94) RBI and 8 (11) stolen bases. Those are some serious numbers to go with a .275 average.

27. Lance Berkman, OF/1B, STL: Again, Pujols departure changes that lineups makeup, but the 36-year-old showed he still has that 25-homer power last year. However, I’m not sure he can get back into that 95 runs-95 RBI range without Pujols in the lineup.

28. Jayson Werth, OF, WAS: Werth may never live up to his contract, but he’s better than he was last year and a good candidate to bounce back and be a value pick in 2012.

29. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA: Ichiro hasn’t scored 100 runs in three years, hasn’t driven in 60 in four years. His .272 average last year also showed that part of his game wasn’t bulletproof. He turns 39 in October, however a repeat — especially in the batting average — is not out of the question. He’s a much better value here than he has been in previous drafts.

30. Cameron Maybin, OF, SD: Last year, Maybin hit 9 homers, scored 82 runs and stole 40 bases. Yes, 40. That’s very Desmond Jennings-esque at a serious discount.

31. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL: The next Griffey?

32. Nick Swisher, OF, NYY: A good pick in almost any format.

33. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL: A bit underrated because he never met power potential.

34. Chris Young, OF, ARI: Put your thumb over his batting average and soak up those counting stats.

35. Peter Bourjos, OF, ANA: Fifteen homers, 80 runs and 30 steals are not out of the question. That lineup is crowded. He has to play to hold down uber-prospect Mike Trout.

36.  Andre Ethier, OF, LAD: 2009 seems so long ago, but he’s worth a risk here, especially with the way he’s been hitting this spring.

37. Carlos Beltran, OF, STL: Imagine this Cardinals lineup with Pujols.

38. Coco Crisp, OF, OAK: Stole 49 bases last year. Uh, that’s a lot of steals. He’s not being drafted in some leagues.

39. Matt Joyce, OF, TB: Joyce is projected to be the starting right fielder in Tampa. If that happens, don’t be surprised if he repeats last year’s surprising season.

40. Logan Morrison, OF, MIA: Hit 23 homers last year and drove in 72 runs. Those are pick-up-off-the-waiver-wire numbers, but Morrison is only 24. He has a wonky knee, which is a little troublesome, but there is potential here for more.

Five more: Angel Pagan, OF, SF; Austin JAckson, OF, DET; Melky Cabrera, OF, SF; Torii Hunter, OF, ANA; Yoenis Cespedes, OF, OAK.

I can put together a winning team from virtually any slot while following any strategy — only 30-homer players to start, pick all but one of your pitcher with your last six picks. The only strategy I wouldn’t recommend is one that has you picking six pitchers to start. But if your first four picks were pitchers, you can make it work.

I mocked on ESPN, using several different strategies. I used ESPN’s projected standings to determine how my team was coming together.

To win at fantasy baseball you need to accumulate statistics in the categories counted in your league. In head-to-head leagues, dominating six of 10 categories (in a standard 5×5 league) could be enough depending on how your league determines won-loss records. On the other side of the spectrum, you need balance to be near the top of a rotisserie league come September.

If you understand the player pool, you can rally back from any reasonable deficit. Even at home run, where the majors have seen a significant decrease in the last few years, you can come back.

Let’s take a look at that 4-SP start example. I will admit this is a wildly risky opening. Pitchers are more likely to get hurt and one gust of wind with the bases loaded can turn a scoreless outing into a game-breaker. However, in theory, picking the top four (or four of the top six depending on the draft) pitchers puts you in a strong position to win ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and wins.

Now you’re done with pitchers

After making those four picks, you must ignore pitchers until your last six picks (depending on roster size and setup). You must ignore all of those mid-round sleeper pitchers. Target the top sluggers first, regardless of position. Look for chances to snipe key players at scarce positions. In my example, I picked Paul Konerko (30-homer profile), Aramis Ramirez (30-homer profile). Starlin Castro almost fell to me at SS. I settled for Elvis Andrus, which is a pretty good consolation prize. Both players should swipe at least 30 bags.

Steals are actually pretty easy to acquire late. And, frankly, there are a handful of 15-20 homer hitters available late too — J.P. Arencibia‘s 20-homer power, at catcher, was my final pick. The key is focusing on players that also contribute in the other counting stats, particularly runs. If you acquire a bunch of players who could get between 85 and 90 runs or RBI and help with 15 homers or steals, you’re going to pile up enough stats to compete.

Time to pick Tyler Clippard

Then, your final few picks should include high-skill closers and relievers. Don’t worry so much about saves — you holds-leaguers will know where I’m going next. Get high-strikeout, low-WHIP and low-ERA pitchers like Tyler Clippard and Kenley Jansen. Some of them will get you saves. You should also pick up a starter or two. In my mock I was able to snag Jonathan Sanchez.

The biggest “problem” with this strategy is that you’re going to end up with a lot of Angel Pagans, Melky Cabreras and Michael Cuddyers instead of Miguel Cabreras and Albert Pujolses. Again, any strategy that relies on Emilio Bonifacio, Jason Kubel and stud pitchers is more risky than a strategy that includes Albert Pujols.

However, based on ESPN’s projections, this highly unconventional team would finish second.

With the risks in mind, I wouldn’t recommend this plan pick-for-pick in a money league. But understand that there are a lot of ingredients you can mix together to make a winning team. Run a couple mocks and let us know how you do.