So, you can expect that several of them will bust. More than likely, they won’t be the ones on this list either. That’s just how these thing work.

Remember, we’re just talking about “potential” busts here. Understand that these players could be great for your team, but there’s a greater amount of risk involved. If I had to pick one absolute bust it’d be the first guy on this list just because of today’s news:

Brian Roberts derives his value from his running ability, so him returning to Baltimore today (March 14) to have a specialist look at the bulging disk in his 33-year-old back doesn’t bode well. He’s being picked as a Top-5 second baseman.

Aaron Hill was discussed alongside 11 other players with downside risk in 2010.

Said in the second base ADP-based rankings that I don’t believe Howie Kendrick’s power spike. I don’t believe he’ll get to 500 at-bats either. Health has never been his strong point. Luckily, for most of you anyway, he’ll be an MI and not a starting 2B in 2010.

That’s it. Or is it? Which second baseman do you see busting in 2010? Anybody not on this list? Let us know on the comments.

Related posts

• 2010 composite fantasy baseball second baseman rankings (0)
• Ranking the top 20 second basemen in fantasy baseball for 2010 (0)
• Fantasy baseball sleeper second basemen to target in your 2010 draft (1)
• If you build around runs, you want one of these 15 stars (1)
• Zito, Pavano go splat. Time to Buy/Sell [FBB] (3)

Players were rated on their positional ranking with five of the main fantasy websites: ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, CBS Sportsline and FOX Sports. Their total score was tallied and players were then ranked below on what the aggregate turned out to be.

Lack of close scoring suggests that the position isn’t as deep as others, as usually is the case with second base. However, there are a number of lesser-known players who could be solid late-round value picks.

Be sure to check out similar composite rankings at catcher, first base, shortstop and closer.

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (6 composite pts): Offseason hip surgery prior to the 2009 season didn’t affect Utley’s totals last year … in fact, he stole a career-high 25 bases to go with his 31 home runs. While he failed to drive in 100 runs for the first time in a while, that stat is likely to change considering the potentency of the Philly lineup.

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (9): A unanimous No. 2 second baseman on this list from every source used except FOX Sports (which ranked him first over Utley), Kinsler produced a 30/30 campaign in 2009 despite hitting a sub-Adam Dunn .253 batting average. Kinsler’s biggest struggles were on the road, and considering his sheer talent, Kinsler deserves a place near the top of this list.

3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (16): Despite a decline in home runs and batting average in 2009, Pedroia gets extra love on various rankings because he had more stolen base attempts in 2009 than in any previous year and he is hitting in the vaunted Boston lineup.

4. Robinson Cano, New York (24): Despite a slow startin 2009, Cano had career-high numbers in most categories that matter, including batting average (.320), home runs (25), stolen bases (5) and runs scored (103). Also a beneficiary of hitting in a prolific offense, Cano is someone you can count on at the position.

5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (26): Roberts saw a 10-stolen base decline for the second consecutive season in 2009, but hit a career-high 16 homers, saw a marked improvement in RBI and even a small one in runs scored. Not shabby from a player who has very little lineup protection. Roberts isn’t a shoe-in steals guy anymore, but has become a more multi-dimensional tool.

6. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (31): A 20/20 player for three consecutive seasons, Phillips also increased his batting average by 10 points in 2009 and he cut down on overall strikeouts. His value increases if he gets run support from young players such as Jay Bruce.

7. Aaron Hill, Toronto (34): The AL Comeback Player of the Year hit 36 homers while increasing his batting average by 20-plus points. Interestingly, he hit at least five homers during each month of the 2009 season, and while it would be wise not to expect another 36 long balls in 2010, you can feel a little better about penciling Hill into your lineup.

8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (41): In just over double the games played from 2008 to 2009, Zobrist more than doubled his home run total and increased his stolen base totals almost six-fold. Many are wondering if Zobrist can repeat his solid stats, and I just wanted to point out that he hit 16 of his homers in the first three months of the season and is a drastically better hitter at home than on the road. For whatever it’s worth.

9. Dan Uggla, Florida (47): Want some power consistency at second base? Uggla has quietly hit 30-plus homers in three straight seasons (and 27 or more in four-straight). Too bad he hit at a .243 clip and has seen a steady decline in runs scored in the past three seasons.

10. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels (51): The potential dropoff here is noticeable … Kendrick hit 10 homers, stole 11 bases and hit .291 (down from .306 in 2009 and .322 in 2008). While he has the potential to do more in that offense, it is hard to get excited until he shows us more on a day-to-day basis.

11. Ian Stewart, Colorado (57): While he plays primarly third base, Stewart is eligible at second. His 25 homers in 147 games last year was nice … the .228 average, not so nice.

12. Jose Lopez, Seattle (58): Also eligible at third base, Lopez compiled a quietly nice season after a slow start in 2009. He hit .287 with five homers and 14 RBI in September this past fall, and the team is considerably more talented after a series of offseason moves.

13. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (63): See the composite shortstop rankings for more on Cabrera.

14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (69): Perennially a sleeper/value guy, Weeks started to finally put it all together early in 2009 before suffering a wrist injury that derailed everything. The Brewers are committing to him as their starting second baseman in 2010 and the lineup in Milwaukee is stacked, so I’ll personally be drinking this Kool-Aid one more time and seeing where the rabbit hole goes.

15. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (76): After time in Detroit, Polanco returns to Philly and will be transitioning to third base. He may not offer elite stats in any one category, but hitting in the stacked Philly lineup, Polanco should get enough numbers to be a respectable backup 2b in most league formats.

Check out our second base sleepers by clicking here.

Our average draft value (ADP) second base rankings can be found here.

What is your opinion of the second base options in fantasy baseall this year? We’d love to hear your comments below.

Related posts

• Ranking the top 20 second basemen in fantasy baseball for 2010 (0)
• If you build around runs, you want one of these 15 stars (1)
• Fantasy baseball sleeper second basemen to target in your 2010 draft (1)
• Potential busts at second base in 2010 (0)
• King of the Hill? [FBB] (0)

As with every other one of these rankings, the comments verify or deny the ADP base. Tiers are included where I determine there’s a break.

For your convenience, here are the links to the other outfielders rankings: Top 20 | 40 | 60 | 80 | Bonus round

1. Ryan Braun – This top tier holds Braun and Kemp. There’s more on Braun in our Top 10 for 2010.

2. Matt Kemp – Projections and discussion on Kemp in our Top 10 for 2010.

3. Carl Crawford – New tier runs from here to Werth. Lot’s of multi-category talents here. Read more about Crawford in our Top 20 for 2010.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – The ranking’s too high, but ADP has him in the Top 20 for 2010.

5. Matt Holliday – How is it that Ellsbury gets in the Top 20, but Holliday does not? Ellsbury’s projected for elite steals and runs, Holliday for fantasy-winning stats across the board. Projections: 105/25/110/15.310

6. Justin Upton – People have begun calling him J-Upside. After what he did last year at age 22, I’ve got one foot in the bandwagon. Projections: 90/25/80/20/.295

7. Jason Bay – Of Bay’s 36 homers in 2009, 15 were hit at Fenway. Only six of those were ballpark specials. Still, let’s say the Mets’ stadium takes away five more, that puts him closer to 25 homers than 35 homers. Projections: 100/30/105/10/.270

8. Grady Sizemore – Had surgery on his elbow and his abdominal wall. He played with the sports hernia from Spring Training on. What you should do at home right now is pick up a bat, swing it and imagine what it must have felt like to hit a 95-mile-an-hour pitch. Next, sprint at full speed for 90 feet then jump and land on your gut. Wonder why he had so few stolen bases last year. He’s healthy now and only 28. Projections: 100/25/80/35/.270

9. Jayson Werth – His ranking feels a bit high, but there are few players who can contribute so well in so many categories. Projections: 85/30/85/20/.270

10. Ichiro Suzuki – This is a new tier, it goes to Granderson and still boasts elite talent. I’ve beaten down Ichiro at every opportunity. I’m not a big fan of picking players who produce great batting average but only help marginally in other categories this early. Ichiro is 37, so I might bet on the under on his steals. Projections: 90/10/55/30/.320

11. Adam Lind – Came out of practically nowhere to join the 35-homer 110-RBI club in 2010. He’s 27 this season. What’s his encore look like? Projections: 80/30/100/1/.295

12. Nick Markakis – Pushed him hard last season. It doesn’t seem like he’s going to advance beyond what he is. That is a very, very good OF, just not one that belongs in the Top 5. He does turn 27 this season, which is magical for some players. Projections: 95/20/95/10/.300

13. Curtis Granderson – What the Mets’ stadium taketh away from Bay, Yankee Stadium giveth to Curtis Granderson. At age 29, expect Granderson to take full advantage of the opportunity and spike his runs and homers. Projections: 100/25/80/20/.270

14. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton starts the new tier because of his question marks. There are two questions, two specialists and an underrated player in this tier that runs to Ramirez. Bum shoulder is still hampering his throws. I won’t pick him. I’ve got to know he’s back first. There’s quite a bit of risk/reward here. Projections: 70/20/80/5/.285

15. BJ Upton – A specialist, Upton could produce elite speed and runs with some helpful pop. The then 25-year-old’s OBP dropped him out of the Rays leadoff spot in 2009. Projections: 80/15/65/40/.270

16. Adam Dunn – A source of consistent elite power and run production should never be overlooked. Projections: 90/35/100/1/.250

17. Nelson Cruz – Past performance shows that he’s capable of the 33-20 season he produced last year. But that might be his ceiling, too. If he gets close to last season’s numbers he’ll be a nice pick at this slot. Projections: 80/30/85/15/.270

18. Manny Ramirez – So, now when we say “Manny just being Manny,” do we mean that Manny isn’t being chemically enhanced? Projections: 75/25/90/.290

19. Andre Ethier – He needs to hit lefties better. If he does that, he might jump 10 spots. Projections: 85/20/90/5/.285

20. Shin-Soo Choo – His projections mirror last year’s production — 87/20/86/21/.300. If you gave him five more on each counting stat, I wouldn’t throw my arms up and walk out. Projections: 90/20/85/20/.300

The bonus round will come after all 80 outfielders have been profiled. If you sill yearn for more content, please check out our fantasy baseball page with links to our 2010 rankings page and strategy and advice archive.

Related posts

• If you build around runs, you want one of these 15 stars (1)
• You want speed? These guys will give you speed (6)
• These are not your preseason rankings [FBB] (2)
• Pure power? Look no further than first base (5)
• Fantasy outfield values you need to remember in 2010 (2)

There are many great fantasy players in the first base ranks. But some of them will disappoint in 2010:

Adrian Gonzalez was already discussed in our look at 12 players with downside risk in 2010.

Joey Votto – Hey, what’s one of our Chinstrap Ninjas favorites doing on this list? Sorry, but we’re talking about “potential” busts and the potential is there. Votto plays at a hitter friendly park and could have had significantly more numbers last year if he hadn’t miss time with stress-related issues. However, that’s the rub. Everyone is drafting him as the sixth best first baseman expecting those numbers. His batting average drops in 2010 and if he doesn’t live up to the more homers talk, he’s not worth a Top-30 pick.

Kendry Morales – He won’t make it to 34 homers or hit .306 again. Rumor has it that the Angels are set for a serious offensive decline in 2010. That would sap Morales’ run and RBI numbers, too. He’d make a good No. 2 1B, but he’s being picked as a Top-10 1B.

Lance Berkman – Already hurt. Word today is Berkman will need surgery to clear particles from his knee and two to four weeks to recover. Surgery in March does not bode well for a player who can’t stay healthy to begin with.

Derrek Lee – After his superb 2005 season — 120/46/107/15/.335 — and his injury plagued 2005, Lee was a mediocre first baseman for two years before 2009. In the same season he turned 34, Lee went 91/35/111/1/.306. If he cuts 15 homers, 2o RBIs and 15 points of batting average like the projections in our Top 20 first baseman for 2010 suggest he will, Lee will be a good 1B, but won’t be worth a top 85 overall pick either.

Be sure to check out more sleepers, busts and rankings, based on composites and average draft position, on our 2010 fantasy baseball page.

Related posts

• Ranking the top 20 first basemen in fantasy baseball for 2010 (0)
• 2010 composite fantasy baseball first base rankings (0)
• Pure power? Look no further than first base (5)
• Ninja notes: The international edition [FBB] (3)
• Ninja notes: The Bizarro edition [FBB] (1)

If you have to settle for a Bottom-15, it’s not awful. Just be prepared to do some work if the pick doesn’t pan out.

These rankings are ADP-based. Comments determine if the ADP is sane or nuts. Projections do their best to throw a wrench in the whole thing from time to time, but typically reflect the comments.

1. Hanley Ramirez – This is the top tier. If you are considered for the top pick in fantasy baseball and nobody else at your position isn’t even in the top 10, you get your own tier. Find his projections in the Top 10 for 2010.

2. Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo starts a new two-deep tier. Projections in the Top 20 for 2010.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Projections and discussion in the Top 20 for 2010.

4. Jose Reyes – This is a new tier, because of his status, Reyes stands alone in it. Ready to bounce back until his thyroid had something to say about it. Might miss two weeks, might miss eight. Temper expectations, but if Reues falls far enough from this spot he could be a value. These projections are a little optimistic considering he could miss the first month of the season. Projections: 90/10/50/40/.290

5. Derek Jeter – Another new, 1-man tier. You’re drafting question marks the rest of the way at this position. Jeter’s only question is his age. But at age 35, he had one of his best years across the board. He won’t repeat but he has the kinds of skills that will age gracefully. Projections: 100/15/70/20/.310

6. Jason Bartlett – Bartlett begins a massive tier that rolls all the way to Yunel. You shouldn’t feel bad about owning anybody in this tier, but fist pumps are not an option either. Yes, Bartlett is batting leadoff for the Rays, but his success against righthanders last year at age 31 is fluky compared to the rest of his career. Luckily shortstop is shallow. Projections: 75/10/55/25/.290

7. Alexei Ramirez – What a disappointment in 2009. Reigned in for 2010. Projections: 70/20/75/10/.280

8. Stephen Drew – That 2008 season — 91/21/67/.291 with 44 doubles — was so promising, but it feels like it was so long ago. Projections: 75/15/70/5/.275

9. Rafael Furcal – He’s health right now. In other news, that won’t last long. Projections: 85/10/50/15/.275

10. Miguel Tejada – Back with the Orioles, Tejada will be a 36-year old, steroid-free shadow of the star he was in Baltimore before. He can still produce some and he’s moving to third, so the slash (3b-slash-SS) is a bonus. Projections: 80/15/80/5/.295

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Another instance where this list’s ADP base reveals sleepers. I’d own Cabrera before Ramirez, Drew, Furcal and Tejada, maybe even before Bartlett. Projections: 85/10/70/20/.295

12. Elvis Andrus – He doesn’t produce enough in the other categories, but he could get elite steals and he’s only 22. Projections: 70/5/55/40/.275

13. Yunel Escobar – Reminder: This position is shallow. However, Escobar is underrated. Compare his projections  to Tejada and Drew and tell me why he’s getting picked so much later. Projections: 80/10/80/5/.300

14. Orlando Cabrera – This is a new tier, it features a couple Cabreras and a lot of question marks and goes to Theriot. Depends on where he bats with the Reds and health, but Cabrera could get 600 ABs in 2010. Projections: 80/10/70/15/.280

15. Erick Aybar – His projections aren’t even as good as Scutaro, and I wouldn’t pick Scutaro in 2010. He is only 26, so these projections might be pessimistic, but I’m not drafting that way. Projections: 65/5/55/15/.290

16. Marco Scutaro – Now with the Red Sox. Coming off a career year at age 35. Don’t pick him this year. Projections: 75/10/60/10/.265

17. Everth Cabrera — Had 73 steals in the minors in 2008. Steals usually make the jump with players into the majors. Cabrera’s only 24. Projections: 75/5/45/30/.265

18. JJ Hardy – It seems like Hardy’s chance to shine has come and gone, but he’s only 28. Still, don’t expect a major breakout with the Twins. Projections: 65/20/65/1/.260

19. Alcides Escobar – Felt like having the tier jump over E. Cabrera and Escobar. Consider it a sub-tier. I’d own both. Escobar could be better than advertised here, and this advertisement is better than Scutaro or Aybar already. Projections: 70/5/50/30/.290

20. Ryan Theriot – Ryan Theriot translates to “cheap steals and runs late in your draft” in Mandarin. True story. Projections: 80/5/50/20/.285

Bonus round

What? There’s no bonus round here. You have to do a bonus round. Every other position gets a bonus round. Ugh. OK. Mike Aviles could go a thrilling 50/10/50/5/.280. That’s not enough! When our prospects list goes live, maybe there will be somebody in there worth picking up during the season — Ian Desmond and Reid Brignac spring to mind. You’ll be able to access the prospects, along with other sleepers and rankings from our 2010 fantasy baseball page.

Related posts

• 2010 Composite Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings (2)
• Fantasy shortstop value players that need to be on your radar screen (4)
• You want speed? These guys will give you speed (6)
• If you build around runs, you want one of these 15 stars (1)
• Why picking Jose Reyes No. 1 is genius [FBB] (3)

But if you aren’t lucky enough to draft in the top slot of your fantasy league, all is not lost.

As shown by the following composite rankings (compiled from projections provided by ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, FoxSports and CBS Sportsline), there is a variety of worthwhile statistical talent atop the position for your picking enjoyment.

Don’t miss similar composite rankings at catcher, shortstop and closer.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis (5 composite points): After an impressive 2008 campaign, many wondered what Pujols would do for an encore last season … how about adding nine stolen bases, 10 home runs, 19 RBI and 24 runs scored to his stat line? At this point, you don’t question Pujols or try to predict when he’ll start to regress in fantasy circles – you draft him and enjoy the ride.

2. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (13): As amazing as Pujols was in 2009, Fielder wasn’t too far behind. Try just one home run and .028 less in batting average. Yes, Fielder is less of a gazelle on the basepaths than Pujols was in 2009, but you get the point. A solid consolation prize you can get later in the first round.

3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (15): His aggregate statistics tell the story: Cabrera has hit .320 or better in four of the last five seasons, 30-plus homers in five of the last six and 100-plus RBI in the last six consecutive campaigns. Is it a coincidence that Cabrera and consistency start with the same letter?

4. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (19): The naysayers who thought Teixeira would struggle in the Big Apple are few and far between after the prized pinstripe addition bettered his 2008 stat line in homers, RBI and runs scored. What isn’t to like about a player just entering his prime in a major hitters’ park and protected by the best lineup in baseball?

5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (23): Failed to land the others on this list so far? No reason to panic. No player in baseball has driven in 135-plus runs in two consecutive seasons … except Howard, who has done it four years running now. His eight stolen bases in 2008 were just gravy.

6. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego (39): Over the past three seasons, Gonzalez has consistently increased his home run output (30, 36 and 40) despite hitting in one of the biggest pitchers parks in baseball. Imagine what he could do in more hitter-friendly confines, which could happen sooner rather than later as the Padres won’t be able to afford an extension for the slugger.

7. (tie) Justin Morneau, Minnesota (41): A stress fracture shortened Morneau’s 2009 season, but he still managed his fourth-consecutive 100-plus RBI and third-straight 30-plus homer campaign. Imagine what Morneau could do if he stays healthy all of this season.

7. (tie) Mark Reynolds, Arizona (41): A number of ranking lists overlook multiply eligible players. Reynolds, typically considered a third baseman, also qualified at first in 2010. He is coming off a career year, and while many doubt he’ll repeat, he is young enough to be a statistical force for quite some time.

9. Joey Votto, Cincinnati (47): Coming off a 2009 that saw him compile a career-best .322 batting average and .414 on-base percentage, Votto is on the verge of eliteness, and still only clocks in at nine on this list. Did I mention that first base is ripe with talent?

10. Kevin Youkilis, Boston (52): Another third baseman import, Youkilis “suffered” through an injury-riddled 2009 by posting career-best numbers in stolen based and on-base percentage. He also garnered All-Star honors and hit .314 in the second half of the season. He is now projected as Boston’s cleanup hitter.

11. (tie) Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (59): Much younger than most on this list, Sandoval was a rockstar in 2009 with 25 homers, a .330 batting average and five stolen bases. Sandoval may come back to earth some in 2010, but his age indicates that he will be a statistical magnet for quite some time.

11. (tie) Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels (59): Another young talent on the rise, Morales made Teixeira expendable for the Angels by smacking 34 homers, batting in 108 runs and hitting at a .306 clip. Not shabby for a 27-year-old. Morales has staying power, and while Chone Figgins won’t be setting the table anymore in LA, Kendry will continue to rise in prominence.

13. Victor Martinez, Boston (60): A catcher to most, Martinez is eligible at first base and is another star on the rise after his importation to Boston from Cleveland last season. His .336 average, eight homers and 41 RBI after the Red Sox trade project very well over a full season.

14. Lance Berkman, Houston (62): How the mighty have fallen. Berkman dropped significantly in most every statistical category in 2009 and showed little reason to get excited about his 2010 aspirations after hitting just .231 with seven homers in the entire second half of 2009. Still, for the right price, Berkman could be a value if he can turn around his declining numbers. Unfortunately, Berkman is already among the walking wounded … requiring knee surgery Friday and his availability for the start of the regular season is in doubt.

15. Adam Dunn, Washington (75): If you can take the hit at batting average (.267 in 2009), there are few who produce the long ball as well as Dunn, a typical outfielder with first base eligibility. Even in Washington, Dunn was able to drive in 105 runs … no small feat.

To check out our first base rankings based off Average Draft Position (ADP), click here.

For sleepers at the first base position, check this out.

What is your opinion of our composite list? We’d love to hear your comments below.

Related posts

• Ranking the top 20 first basemen in fantasy baseball for 2010 (0)
• Pure power? Look no further than first base (5)
• Fantasy baseball: Analyzing the 5×5 elite hitters (2)
• 15 RBI kings to build around in 2010 (0)
• Player rankings: The Top 10 in Fantasy Baseball for 2010 (6)

But, hey, look there. You kick Figgins down the rankings you’ve got 12 legit 3Bs. By no means are we ocean floor deep, but there are players that play all the way into the bonus round, too. Beware position scarcity hype.

Just so we’re clear: ADP guides us through the rankings, but the comments tell you whether the rank is legit or not. Projections are meant to reinforce the comments. Sometimes they contradict them. Which should you follow in such a case? Your gut brain works as well as mine does.

On to the top 20 third basemen in fantasy baseball for 2010:

1. Alex Rodriguez – If you’re being considered for the third overall pick you deserve your own tier. Projections in the Top 10 for 2010.

2. Evan Longoria – Longoria is in the Top 10, but he’s sharing a tier through Zimmerman. Check out the intro to the Top 10 for 2010. You’ll also find Longoria’s projections there.

3. David Wright – Find his projections in the Top 20 for 2010.

4. Mark Reynolds – Projections and discussion in the Top 20 for 2010.

5. Ryan Zimmerman – He’s not in the Top 20 but should be by all indications. I’d settle for Zimmerman before reaching on Longoria. Think Zim has fewer questions than Wright and Reynolds, too. Believe in the power spike. Projections: 95/30/100/5/.290

6. Pablo Sandoval – This is a new tier. It goes to Beltre, but one of these things is not like the other. Sandoval belongs here, but he’s got some questions — is the power legit? What if he doesn’t hit .330? Projections: 80/20/85/5/.325

7. Aramis Ramirez – If you took Ramirez over Zimmerman your nuts. It wouldn’t be terribly upsetting if you took him over Sandoval. Obviously, there’s less upside and more injury risk with Ramirez, but he produces and his shoulder is fully healthy … at the moment. Projections: 75/25/90/1/.290

8. Chone Figgins – This is that one. The one that doesn’t belong. Yes he’ll steal 40 bags for you. So could about a bazillion outfielders that you’ll have to pay far less for. Better stock up on power elsewhere if you go this route. Projections: 95/5/55/40/.290

9. Gordon Beckham – Everybody’s reaching a little here. He’s a good prospect but not much better than Young, Stewart, Chipper and Beltre. Projections: 85/20/80/10/.280

10. Michael Young – Who says 3B is weak? This is the 10th guy. Check those projections. Projections: 85/15/80/10/.300

11. Ian Stewart – His batting average was a horrible .228 last year. He improves that by at least 30 points and produces serious other numbers, too. The projections feel a bit pessimistic: 75/25/75/5/.255 … Could you add five to each number? Actually, never mind, I already did. Oh, look, now he belongs in the second tier. Projections: 80/30/80/10/.260

12. Chipper Jones – Old and already has a jammed thumb. Draft with caution or with a bottom of this list sleeper in mind. Projections: 80/20/80/5/.295

13. Adrian Beltre – Man, this tier goes on forever. Beltre’s in here because he moved from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park in Boston. In that lineup with the Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis show, he should produce in the other categories too. He’s only 31, so he’s still lingering near his prime, and could be a steal in 2010. I’d bet hard on the over for his homers and RBIs. Projections: 65/20/70/10/.270

14. Jhonny Peralta – This is a new tier it meanders down to McGehee. Peralta’s meandering too, from short to third. Let’s see how he reacts. Sometimes moves have an adverse affect on players offensive skills. His power has already been draining, so he can’t lose much more. Projections: 75/15/75/1/.270

15. Alex Gordon – News flash: Gordon’s hurt. Looks like the 26-year-old has another excuse why he didn’t break out in 20xx. The broken thumb won’t keep him out forever, but that kind of injury’s not going away by turning 90-mile-an-hour fastballs into line drives with a stick. Projections: 60/15/65/10/.270

16. Casey McGehee – Everyone’s all with the Gamel. Bet you a free subscription to Chinstrap Ninjas that McGehee outproduces Gamel and these conservative projections in 2010. Projections: 60/15/75/1/.280

17. Mark DeRosa – This is the last tier. You don’t really want to own anybody in this tier, but you’ll own a couple of them for a while as a CI or UTIL2 and drop them. You’ll do it to pick up another one of them and instantly feel ashamed. You should feel good that DeRosa has no pain in his surgically repaired wrist. You should also be alarmed that he’s 35. Projections: 75/20/70/1/.265

18. Garrett Atkins – There are few players I will flat out tell you not to pick even if you were drafting with a stolen team. Atkins is one of them. Last season he scored 37 runs, drove in 48 and hit nine homers all while hitting a balmy .226. He could fall far short of these numbers. Projections: 60/15/70/1/.270

19. Casey Blake – Blake is 37 years old and already strained his rib cage in 2010. At this rate he will finish the season with 361 injuries. Projections: 70/20/70/5/.260

20. Edwin Encarnacion – The only player in this last tier who isn’t 30. Sadly, he’s also the least likely to play 162 games. His surgically repaired wrist is still tender, so it’s starting already. Projections: 60/20/65/5/.260

Bonus Round

That’s it for the top 20, but there are a lot of players getting picked later that are less brittle and more upsidy. Brandon Inge (60/20/70) and Mark Teahan (70/15/65/10) aren’t exactly upsidy, but they could replace an injured/ineffective Encarnacion for cheap … Kevin Kouzmanoff is an interesting pick this season. We’ll get to see which pitcher’s park is worse for hitters, PetCo or The Coliseum. he could go 60/20/80 … Brandon Wood’s not going to boost your batting average, but in the minors he showed the promise of an 80-30-80 player … All Jake Fox needs is playing time and he’d get 60/20/70 easy … Jays want to move Brett Wallace to first. At 65/15/50/.290 in 2010, he has more value at 3B … He’s unexciting like Encarnacion, Blake and Atkins but David Freese is cheaper and with more upside: 50/15/50/.270. It’s not much upside, but take what you can get when you’re 400 picks deep … The Pirates top prospect, Pedro Alvarez hasn’t played above AA yet. Expect a mid-season arrival and some mediocre stats, something like 50/15/50/.250. However, Dynasty-Leaguers should snatch and stash or trade for him when he shows he’s still not quite ready for prime time. He’ll rock in 2011, if not the end of 2010.

To see all of our rankings, including sleepers and composite rankings, visit our 2010 Fantasy Baseball page.

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Notice the composite scores in parenthesis? Many of the catcher rankings come in bunches, with certain player scores coming incredibly close to each other. If nothing else, it can help make things easier for those who want to tier their catcher rankings.

The following composite list were created by factoring in rankings from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, Fanball and Sporting News. So … you don’t need to visit each site individually, we have it all here in one convenient place:

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (5 pts). Plenty has been written about Mauer here at chinstrapninjas.com, including an unpopular drafting strategy involving him and other top-tiered catchers and a well-written counter argument from ep. No matter what your opinion on Mauer, the facts remain clear … he is coming off a career year and has the ability to lead catchers again in 2010 in a variety of categories. It’s all a matter of how much you want to pay for him …  and if his sudden power boost will remain?

2. Brian McCann, Atlanta (11). Although he saw a slight slip in homers, batting average, steals and runs scored, McCann boosted his RBI numbers in 2009. New LASIK surgery can’t hurt and he’s arguably the best offensive weapon the Braves have to offer. If they can provide some more protection in the order, McCann should continue to keep himself  near the top of this list.

3. Victor Martinez, Boston (14). All you need to know about Martinez is his stat line after being dealt to the Red Sox: .336, 8 homers, 41 RBI. Project that over a full season in a lineup loaded with protection and Martinez is clearly a better option than those below him on this list.

4. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (28). Don’t just look at Wieters as the fourth-highest player on this list, but more at his composite score and how incredibly close it is to the next couple options. Wieters has plenty of talent, but hasn’t proven that he can live up to the hype, yet. He still is a decent option in a fairly shallow position, but there is a clear drop-off from the first three guys to Wieters.

5. Miguel Montero, Arizona (30). A huge breakout player last season, Montero is still considered a sleeper by some. However, as this composite ranking proves, he isn’t going to take anyone by surprise. As with Wieters, he is a decent option at one of the most shallow positions in fantasy baseball, but expect to pay more than you were thinking for Montero, who hasn’t been a top option for a full season, not to mention most of his career so far.

6. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees (31). Many are scared off by his age, but Posada had nice bounceback numbers in 2009 and bats in a loaded lineup. Those pieces alone make him a decent play most of the season. He isn’t going to carry you in steals by any stretch of the imagination, but he should provide 20-plus homer pop and a .280-plus average.

7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers (38). An elite catcher just two seasons ago, Martin’s numbers across the board have tailed off considerably each of the past two years. Oddly enough, both his speed and power numbers have taken a hit. He is talented enough to bounce back somewhat, but would it would take a lot of luck to move up this list any higher

8. (tie) Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs (47). Much like Martin, Soto had a very impressive 2008 and much was expected of him last season. Again, like Martin, Soto regressed across the board. His slow start (.230, 8 homers, 27 RBI before the All-Star break) led to an even worse finish (.205, 4, 20). Still, it is interesting to me that fantasy owners seem ready to assume that Martin will magically bounce back to prominence while Soto will be a non-factor. At this point, with either player, you won’t get a return on your investment unless they can show a dramatic comeback. The difference is that Soto will cost you much less on draft day.

8. (tie) Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels (47). Napoli turned in his second consecutive season of 20 home runs and a decent uptick in his runs and RBI numbers. While not a flashy option, Napoli, at the moment, may have a lower ceiling than Martin and Soto, but may prove to be the less risky pick of the three. One thing to watch, though, is how Napoli’s numbers are affected by the loss of overall talent on the Angels roster this offseason.

10. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (48). Few catchers are as ripe for a decline as Molina. He’s aging fast, and while he still quietly produced solid catching stats last year, he didn’t bring much interest in the free agent market this offseason and finds himself back in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. The biggest concern, however, is young catching phenom Buster Posey, who’s too talented not to start receiving more playing time.

11. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (49). Another catcher that impressed in 2008 but failed to deliver last season, Doumit was more a victim of injury (wrist and concussion issues) than flat-out poor play. His impressive September (.346, 2, 12), however, may be a sign that he’s going to rebound this year.

12. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (50). After back-to-back seven-homer seasons in 2007 and 2008, Suzuki saw a power surge in the second half of last season that helped him finish with 15 long balls. Now, the question remains whether Suzuki continues the power uptick, or if he takes a Russell Martin-esque downturn.

13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox (61). What Pierzynski’s numbers lack in sizzle, they make up for in quiet consistency. He has produced double-digit homers for seven consecutive seasons and his batting average finished at a three-year high at .300. Don’t expect a major upspike in numbers from Pierzynski, but you could do worse on draft day.

14. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (69). Yadier’s nine steals last season was second-best at the position, but chalk that up to other players underproducing and not that Yadier suddenly became flight of foot. He doesn’t produce enough home runs, either, to be a reliable starting fantasy catcher, either. Molina’s best attributes are his batting average and an OK RBI output.

15. Miguel Olivo, Colorado (76). Olivo hit 23 homers last season and on the surface seems to be an intriguing fantasy play. That is, until you see his career .243 batting average. If you need a power infusion, especially in two-catcher leagues, Olivo may be a sneaky play … but don’t forget that he’s now in Colorado, battling Chris Iannetta for playing time.

For our ADP-based catcher rankings, go here.

For a review of sleepers at the catcher position, go here.

Who will bust as a fantasy catcher, check this out.

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1. If your team has a legit shot at winning this year, you probably should not trade any of the players on this list.

2.  I am predicting that these players will suffer a loss in value in the coming years, not necessarily the coming season.

3. I am advocating the idea of selling these players high when their value is near their peak.

4.  Trading these players will benefit your team if they are one of your lone studs, because you should be able to get some picks and up and comers in return for the top-flight talent.

1. Steven Jackson: In his past five seasons, he has averaged about 300 touches and he has been very productive. He started to show signs of breaking down last year with the injured back, although he is very tough and continued to play anyway.

But let’s be realistic, the Rams suck, they have no QB and they are going to ride Jackson into the ground. At 27 years old when the season starts, his time is running out. He most likely has 1-2 good years left before we could see an LT esque decline. His value should still be high right now, so the return for Jackson could still be worth trading.

2. Marion Barber: Turning 27 years old as the season starts and due to his punishing style of running, he has some serious tread on the tires. This may be the last year you can get any sort of return for him in trade. With Felix the Cat shining down the stretch last season and Tashard Choice showing he is more than capable to complement, there isn’t enough ball to go around.

Also with Romo and the passing game clicking, there is a good chance the rushes could be down and the Cowboys could go to the air more the coming season. I really don’t think Barber’s value will stay high, and I think he could be cut in the coming offseason, which could tick his value up slightly. Overall, I just don’t trust that he will stay healthy and with a deep draft for RBs, it might be worth unloading him for a late first round pick or early second round pick to get your hands on one of the rookie backs this year.

3. Randy Moss: When wide outs hit the wall they hit it hard, ask the owners of Terrell Owens. Moss has one more season with Tom Brady and then he will be a free agent and almost a foregone conclusion he will be on a new team next season. With the new team comes a ton of unknowns.

Moss is in a contract year, so he will most likely have a big year, but at the same time he might not be worth more than a WR2 after this coming season. He is a guy where if your team is close, I’d keep him and try to deal him next year, but if you’re not going to be in the running, then I would recommend moving him for some picks and a younger wide out.

4. Sidney Rice: It is not normal for me to recommend moving a young wide out, especially one that  had such a breakout season. Rice is a tale of two quarterbacks … Pre-Favre (46rec, 573yards, 8tds) and Favre-era (77rec , 1200yards, 6tds).

Once old man river finally retires anything can happen. Will the Vikings get another aging quarterback or will they draft a young quarterback? No one knows.

I am pretty sure Rice continue to be a good receiver, but the dominate season he put up will likely not be repeated without Favre at the helm. Rice is still a solid young wide out, but I worry that he could be hurt significantly when Favre leaves the team. Although I struggle to figure out what fair value for Rice would be, but I can just say you will know it when you see it.

5. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown and Peyton Manning are the two reasons why Addai’s value will be all over the place. Brown will cut into his carries, receptions and touchdowns; Manning spreads the ball around too much (great for NFL, terrible for fantasy).

Kind of like Barber, Addai’s value is high right now, but I see his value falling during the season. While I know he will have a fairly consistent stream of points scored, I would much rather take a chance on one of the incoming rookie backs. I just have a hunch that Addai’s production will fall and maybe heading down the same path Dominic Rhodes did in Indy.

6. Michael Turner: Well he can’t catch and he broke down last season. He eclipsed the magic number of 370 carries in the prior season and then like clockwork he broke down. He has had nagging injuries.

Thankfully he was able to get 10 touchdowns last year to save some of his value for the owners that took him early in drafts. He then tried to tough it out at the end of the season and would go one carry and done or would just tease the fantasy owner into putting him in the lineup and then he would put up a zero. Do I think he can bounce back? … yes. But I think it’s a risky proposition, and if the price is right or you can find an owner that believes, you could get good value for him.

7. Brett Favre: He is old. There is no way he will repeat the numbers he put up. Greg Williams and the Saints D were one more drive away from ending two quarterback’s careers in one playoffs.

More importantly I doubt he plays more than one more season, so trading him to get something is better than just having a dead space on your team. If you have a chance to win the title, keep him and run with it. If you don’t have a shot, then you should try to move him for a pick and maybe a lower level player with some upside. This is just an example of dealing a player before they retire to avoid dead weight.

8. Matt Forte: Chester Taylor hurts his value, and I just don’t think he is that good. Sure he had a good season and can catch, but he doesn’t have breakaway speed and I will contest he couldn’t make a kid in a wheelchair miss.

With the thought of Mike Martz running the show, some people may go to great lengths to get a hold of players on the Bears so the value could be there. I am just not a believer in Forte, and if the receivers start to come through there could be a flurry of passes coming out of the windy city.

He is a young back so it might not be worth pulling the plug just yet, but again if the price is right, it might be worth moving him.

What are your opinions on this list? Which players are you considering trade-now candidates in dynasty football leagues?

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Matt Wieters – I’ve seen pessimistic projections put Wieters at 12 homers and 70 RBIs. Those numbers are almost Yadier Molina-esque. Of course, he could hit the 20 homers you’re drafting him for. Unfortunately he’s the fourth-fastest catcher off the board in 2010. That’s expensive for such an unknown commodity.

Jorge Posada – Turns 39 in August and plays the most demanding position in baseball. If he stays healthy it’ll be because he gets a healthy dose of days off. He also has to hold off prospect Jesus Montero all season.

Miguel Montero – Already discussed his and 11 other player’s downside risk in 2010.

Bengie Molina – His production has been solid and consistent, but he turns 36 in July and is merely keeping the catcher’s gear warm for when the Giants consider Buster Posey ready. Molina could play the whole season and hit 20 homers and drive in 80 RBIs in 2010, making him a nice pick as the 10th catcher. However, keep your ear to the ground and your finger on the mouse when Posey talks heat up.

For more busts, rankings, sleepers and strategy, check out our 2010 Fantasy Baseball page.

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